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Geoboy645

Spring/Summer 2019 Flooding Thread

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I guess this could go in a few different threads.... here’s some photos of the Cannon River flooding from Welch Village Ski Area on 3/23. This is the highest I’ve seen the river in the 4 years I’ve been skiing here. 

A58E8484-C10F-4D81-B3A2-3FE9E3CD6E7A.jpeg

D78B5D55-0B2B-471C-AE3F-869216FD06FB.jpeg

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I like how that drone shows the concept of flood plain. All land between those two ridges is open season for water when the levels get high. Looks like a two or three mile wide snake heading off to both horizons.

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surprised this thread is dead

 

Record flooding now expected on the MS river at Quad cities breaking  the 1993 record

 

FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE  
  
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR  
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ROCK ISLAND LD15.  
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.  
* AT  8:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.6 FEET AND STEADY.  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET.  
* MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.  
* RECENT ACTIVITY, HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL NOW PUSH THE  
  RIVER TO A HISTORIC CREST IN THE QUAD CITIES.  
* FORECAST, RISE TO 22.7 FEET THIS EVENING, THEN BEGIN FALLING.  
* IMPACT, AT  22.7 FEET, WATER IS AT THE BASE OF THE SOUTH EMPLOYEE   
  ENTRANCE OF THE QUAD CITY TIMES BUILDING.  

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I think we will have RECORD flooding here in Peoria on the IL river ....

Crest already expected to be very high early next week 27-27.5 feet .. models show active pattern again next week and if the heavy rains fall upstream ,,then we are in trouble here record is 29.4 set just 5 years ago

 

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Catastrophic flooding in Kankakee. River out of its banks. Basements in my parent’s hood flooded with backup sewage and water. This is happening all too frequently these past 4-5 years. Make it f*cking stop already!!!

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8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Catastrophic flooding in Kankakee. River out of its banks. Basements in my parent’s hood flooded with backup sewage and water. This is happening all too frequently these past 4-5 years. Make it f*cking stop already!!!

Damn, sorry to hear man.  If anyone needs help with bags send me a PM.  I'll be back in the area late afternoon

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Yeah it looks pretty bad throughout Illinois and along the Mississippi. Bad thing is it looks like the extended forecast is much of the same except maybe a bit north. Our main-stem rivers up here are already higher so any major rains could send them back into flood stage for the third time this year. And we haven't gotten into the real wet part of the year. If we have a weather pattern similar to last august's we are going to be in major trouble. 2008 v2 anyone?

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not counting today 1/2 -2/3 inch or so  

4 day rainfall

 

PERFECT for the maximum affect for the IL at PIA..

(Marshall. Putnam , nothern Livingston then the I-80 counties from Princeton to Joliet...with other less important areas of  the Basin for PIA impact  upstream from these area also getting hit..(FOX, Des Plaines, Kankakee etc)

4 Day Rain Total Ending at 7 am Wednesday, May 1

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3 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

I think we will have RECORD flooding here in Peoria on the IL river ....

Crest already expected to be very high early next week 27-27.5 feet .. models show active pattern again next week and if the heavy rains fall upstream ,,then we are in trouble here record is 29.4 set just 5 years ago

 

I thought they were calling for it to crest at 27' at least two days ago, so I was a little surprised it was only bumped to 27.5' today. If it's cresting in Peoria on Sunday, and the more significant rain wouldn't come until Tuesday-Wednesday...it's something to keep an eye on, but not sure it'll surpass the record.

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1 hour ago, Crispus said:

I thought they were calling for it to crest at 27' at least two days ago, so I was a little surprised it was only bumped to 27.5' today. If it's cresting in Peoria on Sunday, and the more significant rain wouldn't come until Tuesday-Wednesday...it's something to keep an eye on, but not sure it'll surpass the record.

 

No they were calling for 23.5 two days ago......bumped it up to 27.5 yesterday... based on higher then expected rainfall and forecast rainfall the next 24 hours or so...(ie todays)

also need to keep an eye on the hyrographs upstream to see of they meet the expected crest (Morris today and Lasalle later)..both of those locations had the crest lowered 1/2 foot today

usually  here the crest is  4 or so  after the heaviest rain stops upstream... they have delayed the crest here until Sunday night now which makes more sense

also the IL river from Henry downstream is very slow reacting ...especially form PIA downstream ..it won't fall off the crest for a couple of days... and when there is no rain after a crest the steepest slope is only a fall of around .4 to .5 feet per day starting 4 days or so after the peak

I suspect the river will crest 27.2 ish monday. I am basing this slightly lower crest because todays "secondary" rains will fall mostly south of the basin... so the total rains of last night and today will be slightly less then expected

I suspect  the river will be above 26 all next week ........without any more rain..so that will be the starting point for the rains

it was 15.4 ft at the start of this deluge

 

The Hydro forecasts are tricky and always change and seem to be behind "real time" ..and the IL river basin is rather narrow so any outflows pushing the expected precip in or out of the basin is unpredictable 

The media will also base their info off the hydro forecast

Don't surprised if you see crazy numbers starting Sunday evening as the forecast precip for Monday and Tuesday start to come into play

Trust me if we get  widespread 2-3+ inches of rain just upstream next week it will break  the record..that is exactly what happened in the Quad cities 

If the max falls further upsrteam  closer to Jolietr area it will flatten the crest for a longer period but we prob won't break the record..but that will just keep the danger going for the longer term

 

better hope it stays south..and the high over the northenr plains will push the storm tracks south after mid week

 

the 12z CMC is really troubling over the next 10 days  with 4-7 inches ..12z GEFS mean 2-2.25 inches inthe basin...with the heaviest south towards OH river

would someone post the EURO totals  thanks

 

 

 

 

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While I've casually followed the Mississippi flooding, I kinda forget about it because the rivers just to the west, around here, are not high at all.  I just went down to Iowa City and the Iowa River/Coralville Reservoir are actually rather low.  All the recent heavy rain has been from here south, with not much up in northern Iowa where all of our rivers begin.

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IL river: Looks like Morris crested at 23.04ft a few hours earlier and just under 1/2 foot of the forecast from the morning

8th all time

 

DVN long range

 

ONG TERM  
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2019  
  
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON AREA  
RIVERS CONTINUING THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL  
NEXT WEEK, SO INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO  
LATER FORECASTS.  
  
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC  
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS APPEARS  
TO BE A CLASSIC MADDOX SYNOPTIC FRONTAL-TYPE HEAVY RAINFALL   
SITUATION. THERE WILL BE A DEEP TROUGH ANCHORED IN THE ROCKIES FOR  
MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST   
UNITED STATES. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS TREMENDOUS MOISTURE   
WILL BE AVAILABLE COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG   
BAROCLINIC EAST-WEST ZONE WILL BE RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH   
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM AIR ADVECTION/STRONG FORCING. THE   
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING FORCING AND MESOSCALE  
FEATURES WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE EVENT, WHICH WILL DETERMINE   
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN. IT   
IS ALSO TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HIGHS   
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.  

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New crest at PIA 28 feet Monday

and still be above 27 into Thursday

again that is without any more rain factored in

 

 

Historic Crests
(1) 29.35 ft on 04/23/2013
(2) 28.80 ft on 05/23/1943
(3) 28.70 ft on 03/23/1979
(4) 28.40 ft on 03/07/1985
(5) 27.94 ft on 03/14/2009
(6) 27.40 ft on 12/09/1982
(7) 27.10 ft on 03/23/1982
(8) 27.09 ft on 06/30/2015
(9) 27.06 ft on 09/20/2008
(10) 26.86 ft on 03/03/1997

 

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On 5/2/2019 at 10:39 AM, Geoboy645 said:

Yeah it looks pretty bad throughout Illinois and along the Mississippi. Bad thing is it looks like the extended forecast is much of the same except maybe a bit north. Our main-stem rivers up here are already higher so any major rains could send them back into flood stage for the third time this year. And we haven't gotten into the real wet part of the year. If we have a weather pattern similar to last august's we are going to be in major trouble. 2008 v2 anyone?

I was up in your neck of the woods yesterday. I found this little park in Doylestown and walked through the grass, it was like a marsh. With every step water squished out of the grass, soaked through my shoes and into my socks. The soil literally can't hold any more moisture. The Wisconsin River is very high. As bad as last August was, I am quite concerned that southern Wisconsin is primed for another flood disaster as bad as or worse than 2008 if we get into another ring-of-fire pattern with training MCS activity at point this spring.

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I will bore you all with my concern for this area..

The area Below is called the Levee district of East Peoria....At one time it consisted of nothing but Caterpillar Manufacturing Buildings...

if you look at Google maps you can see these buildings and several small blocks of homes (built for the CAT workers orginally)..there may be 150 homes in the area...the area west of Main street and south of Camp is this levee district.. this is also known as the "bottoms"

There are still several large active CAT buildings but the ones on the NE side have been torn down and replaced with Costco, Target, Gordmans and many other commercial buildings ...in the past 10-20 years

They still assemble all the Large CAT dozers here worldwide (building SS) ..which can seen stored on Google earth 

anyway that levee isn't the best.. and the flood 5 years ago they shut down all the CAT buildings and people started to flee the homes

I don't recall where i saw it but someone was quoted as saying the river would flood all the way to main street before the levee was there...there was rumours of it leaking in 2013 

 

ep.jpg.130f65eac1beb1aa49adcea8dbc608e1.jpg

old news articles from 2013

 

Caterpillar shuts down East Peoria plant amid flooding

Caterpillar Inc. shut down its East Peoria campus on Sunday as the water level of the Illinois River continues to raise.

"The company has been and will remain in contact with local authorities to continue monitoring the situation and will communicate with employees and other stakeholders about when the East Peoria campus will re-open and when employees would be expected to return to their normal work place," 

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-xpm-2013-04-22-chi-caterpillar-shuts-down-east-peoria-plant-amid-flooding-20130422-story.html

 

Residents in East Peoria Bottoms Packing Up

https://www.centralillinoisproud.com/news/top-local-news/residents-in-east-peoria-bottoms-packing-up/94570766

 

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21 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Hearing that Rock Island got above the ‘93 flood today. Expected to rise a touch more 

Indeed...

D5nCkd0XoAEbmZ9.jpg:large

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

I will bore you all with my concern for this area..

The area Below is called the Levee district of East Peoria....At one time it consisted of nothing but Caterpillar Manufacturing Buildings...

if you look at Google maps you can see these buildings and several small blocks of homes (built for the CAT workers orginally)..there may be 150 homes in the area...the area west of Main street and south of Camp is this levee district.. this is also known as the "bottoms"

There are still several large active CAT buildings but the ones on the NE side have been torn down and replaced with Costco, Target, Gordmans and many other commercial buildings ...in the past 10-20 years

They still assemble all the Large CAT dozers here worldwide (building SS) ..which can seen stored on Google earth 

anyway that levee isn't the best.. and the flood 5 years ago they shut down all the CAT buildings and people started to flee the homes

I don't recall where i saw it but someone was quoted as saying the river would flood all the way to main street before the levee was there...there was rumours of it leaking in 2013 

Yep, I know people who work at Cat buildings in that area. One told me that in his IT building, they've been told they might start working from home if the river hits 29'. One of the other factory buildings is only 15' above the river, so it might be half submerged if the levee breaks or overflows. The levee is supposedly in good shape, recently inspected, but who knows.

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2 hours ago, Crispus said:

Yep, I know people who work at Cat buildings in that area. One told me that in his IT building, they've been told they might start working from home if the river hits 29'. One of the other factory buildings is only 15' above the river, so it might be half submerged if the levee breaks or overflows. The levee is supposedly in good shape, recently inspected, but who knows.

I don't remember at what gauge height it over tops 

back in 2013 the river was originally supposed to crest a little higher then the 29.35. around 30 I think ...CAT moved out all of the inventory dozers and raised important equipment off the floor 

That is also why people started to flee the homes in the bottoms ,,,,

another wildcard:  I remember every flood since 1979 and at the height of the crests there wasn't the potential for heavy rains.....I might go over there Sunday to check this out....but after typical downpours,  Farm creek can rise from nothing to many feet deep In that location.....Farm creek is what runs along the north side of the Levee district ..well with the river super high Farm creek will likely be backed up  and be very high .....so if upstream gets a deluge...will the runoff come close to overtopping the north side of the levee along the creek before the runoff hits the river and spreads out?  The IT building you referred too (building AD) is in the NW corner of the levee district about 800 feet from the river and right next to the smaller branch of Farm  creek (it splits on two near target)

of course we are getting way way way ahead of ourselves ......all depends how much more rain and where

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Levee has been overtopped near Winfield, MO in Lincoln County, with a FFW in effect. The MS River will continue to rise until overnight Saturday into Sunday.

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10 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I was up in your neck of the woods yesterday. I found this little park in Doylestown and walked through the grass, it was like a marsh. With every step water squished out of the grass, soaked through my shoes and into my socks. The soil literally can't hold any more moisture. The Wisconsin River is very high. As bad as last August was, I am quite concerned that southern Wisconsin is primed for another flood disaster as bad as or worse than 2008 if we get into another ring-of-fire pattern with training MCS activity at point this spring.

I totally agree with the 2008 redux concerns for the next few months. What sucks is that because of how the Wisconsin is it can't really hold a lot of water like it did in 2008. If I remember right the Wisconsin really didn't flood that much by itself, it was mostly the tributaries like Dell Creek and the Baraboo that were the issues. Also was that park the one pretty close to the catholic church?

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Pattern recognition suggest a classic southern IA Northern MO MCS turning more ESE and missing PIA to the south and only hitting this area with moderate comma head rains and even less upstream ...as high pressure noses in from the NE...good news

after a minor hit here Monday...00Z NAM has huge amounts in MO in an ESE moving MCS

the GFS is Meh for heavy rain here with huge amounts well south in the lower MS river valley and another weaker max NW

ICON also a shift south 

CMC splits the goal posts like the GFS

GEFS Mean also trending down with only 1.35 or so upstream of me next week with also a hint of a split

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I totally agree with the 2008 redux concerns for the next few months. What sucks is that because of how the Wisconsin is it can't really hold a lot of water like it did in 2008. If I remember right the Wisconsin really didn't flood that much by itself, it was mostly the tributaries like Dell Creek and the Baraboo that were the issues. Also was that park the one pretty close to the catholic church?
Yup, that's the one.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

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On 5/3/2019 at 2:39 PM, Crispus said:

Yep, I know people who work at Cat buildings in that area. One told me that in his IT building, they've been told they might start working from home if the river hits 29'. One of the other factory buildings is only 15' above the river, so it might be half submerged if the levee breaks or overflows. The levee is supposedly in good shape, recently inspected, but who knows.

Was in EP today so I took a drive around the levee district .....I forgot when the river get this high it backups under the levee in front of  that IT Building thru the storm drains and indeed water is starting to flood the road there in front of that building  ..that is why he will have to work from home it hit hits 29...he won't be able to get into the parking lot.....

also farm creek in indeed very high against the north side of the district behind Target and Aldi ...like I said I have seen it go from almost bone dry to a raging deep torrent .....don't think it has ever started at this height then add that  same raging deep current

crossing my fingers that here and just upstream do indeed get the split,,say only 1 inch versus 3+....ILX even mentions this is the discussion

I don't think people around here understand the gravity of the potential situation yet

====================================

 

 

Richland farms are the  homes in the Levee District  aka "Bottoms" 

No Flood Evacuations In East Peoria…Yet

The river in East Peoria was at 25.83 feet, as of 6:45 a.m. Saturday, with a current crest of 28 feet forecast Monday with more rain forecast in the coming week.

East Peoria officials Saturday afternoon said evacuations are not recommended at this time.

However, if severe flooding continues, residents in the Richland Farms area and those along the river along Main Street and westward will need to have a plan in place for themselves and their pets and have basic supplies ready and provisions for their animals, including food and water. Residents are encouraged to develop a voluntary evacuation plan that can be exercised if an order to evacuate is issued.

https://www.1470wmbd.com/no-flood-evacuations-in-east-peoria-yet/

East Peoria city officials and the Fon du Lac Park District are continually monitoring the flooding situation on the Illinois River and the condition of the levee, and recommend residents be proactive by planning ahead in the event of an emergency.

https://www.facebook.com/EPCityGovernment/

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WPC going with anther 1.75- 2 inches this week..a crest of 28 ft still expected here tomorrow but that is without the rain factored in which may cause a secondary crest..some of that should get into this evenings frecast

also the river is running a hair above forecast points so 28.1 or 28.2 look more likely for the "old" forecast

 

Historic Crests
(1) 29.35 ft on 04/23/2013
(2) 28.80 ft on 05/23/1943
(3) 28.70 ft on 03/23/1979
(4) 28.40 ft on 03/07/1985
(5) 27.94 ft on 03/14/2009

 

18z NAM total disaster for this area....with widespread 2-3 inches here and upstream

 

 

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