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Geoboy645

Spring/Summer 2019 Flooding Thread

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local downpours keeping the river steady..00z would kill this area 3-4 inches from here to Chicago

new crest forecast adds this 

 * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.  
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 28.0 FEET BY   
  EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE   
  THEREAFTER.  

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As someone who is going camping this weekend at Devils Lake, this sucks a lot. Hopefully I don't get flooded out like that area has a tendency to do in a heavy rain situation. Also this is just going to do wonders for our rivers. The farmers are never going to get in their fields. It never ends!

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PAI got lucky last time the river crested at 28 ft 5th highest ..we missed the first 2 of the 3 heavy rain waves that was forecast 10 days ago..the last wave bumped the river back up to 27 feet after falling to 26.8 or so

The river is still 24 feet here..and its already raining upstream

12z GFS ..enough said

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MS river at Saint Louis expected crest of 41.7  tie for 6th highest......that is with only precipitation expected  thru 12z ...super wet pattern continues for at least another week

1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993
(2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973
(3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016
(4) 42.00 ft on 04/01/1785
(5) 41.89 ft on 05/22/1995
(6) 41.70 ft on 05/06/2017

 

 

 

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This is at the southern end of St Clair river, where my grandparents live. I have never in my lifetime seen water this high there.

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Just in the next week. Things might start getting ugly 
4AC28E58-449E-49E5-8811-30CC4A377EC4.png.1cb8713a2a5e085df362a6060c00f5f0.png

I feel like things are already getting ugly. Just heard on the radio only 24% of IL corn crop is in (typically 98% is in) and only 9% of soy

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so far most of the flooding has been from "fast moving" clusters during Tornado season ....not huge slower moving wind producing  MCSs as the jet stream moves north ..in 1993 these huge slow moving systems happened almost every night during the summer..they formed in IA/NE/KS/MO.and moved ESE

I think PIA had the wettest july on record but since they were decaying as they moved into IL ..not as much upstream on the IL river

also the fall of 1992 was wet If I  remember ..(remember  all the IA flooding last September)

IL river here still at 23 feet  .Moderate flood stage 22....only down 4.5 feet or so since the crest of 28

 

new crest 24.5 for monday....with about 1/2 to 3/4 inch of precip (per WPC map) basin wide overnight

(huge amounts possible this weekend)

 

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2 hours ago, King James said:


I feel like things are already getting ugly. Just heard on the radio only 24% of IL corn crop is in (typically 98% is in) and only 9% of soy
 

You’re right, atleast half the fields around here haven’t been touched since harvest last year, and things are even worse elsewhere in the Midwest. I honestly don’t know what farmers are going to do

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1 hour ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

You’re right, atleast half the fields around here haven’t been touched since harvest last year, and things are even worse elsewhere in the Midwest. I honestly don’t know what farmers are going to do

Tweeted to a local met last night about how this years planting stacks up against other late planting years, and with records going back to 1979 he confirmed this is the latest since said records began. 

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Suggests there will be serious pricing disruptions for foodstuffs globally. The US feeds many more than the domestic consumers.

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I know they used to say 'knee high in July' regarding where corn was supposed to be, but in recent years the corn seems to be much higher than that in July. I assume this is due to new hybrids, genetic engineering, etc. Does that mean less time is needed nowadays for a crop?  And if that's the case, does that mean planting late is not as big a deal as it used to be?

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2 minutes ago, Crispus said:

I know they used to say 'knee high in July' regarding where corn was supposed to be, but in recent years the corn seems to be much higher than that in July. I assume this is due to new hybrids, genetic engineering, etc. Does that mean less time is needed nowadays for a crop?  And if that's the case, does that mean planting late is not as big a deal as it used to be?

That is the kind of nuts and bolts facts that we really need, but cannot find anywhere in the 'information age'.

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3 hours ago, Crispus said:

I know they used to say 'knee high in July' regarding where corn was supposed to be, but in recent years the corn seems to be much higher than that in July. I assume this is due to new hybrids, genetic engineering, etc. Does that mean less time is needed nowadays for a crop?  And if that's the case, does that mean planting late is not as big a deal as it used to be?

I know a few farmers around here in Northeast Indiana and they all agree that June 8th is the drop dead date to plant corn. Otherwise it won't be ready in time without drying it which substantially adds to the cost of production and makes it a losing proposition.

As far as soybeans, the price is already depressed due to the sanctions with China. With a much smaller market to sell to, the farmers I spoke with are planning on minimizing their soybean plantings.

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Lets just hope we don't get a northwestern Gulf of Mexico tropical system this year, we may never recede at that rate.

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6 hours ago, Crispus said:

I know they used to say 'knee high in July' regarding where corn was supposed to be, but in recent years the corn seems to be much higher than that in July. I assume this is due to new hybrids, genetic engineering, etc. Does that mean less time is needed nowadays for a crop?  And if that's the case, does that mean planting late is not as big a deal as it used to be?

Yes and no. Clear as mud, right? Actually all the genetics are more to take full advantage of a full growing season. If things gets too late, the crop is getting the wrong conditions at the wrong time. If the root structure is not fully developed before the August/September hot and dry happen the crop will have reduced yields. To make matters worse, if it really starts getting late they (the farmers) will have to get in the fields regardless of soft conditions and that will exasperate compactions and reduce yields. Then things will be later. And later harvest time means a better chance of more soft conditions. Can you see how the snowball just keeps getting worse yet?

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8 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

Yes and no. Clear as mud, right? Actually all the genetics are more to take full advantage of a full growing season. If things gets too late, the crop is getting the wrong conditions at the wrong time. If the root structure is not fully developed before the August/September hot and dry happen the crop will have reduced yields. To make matters worse, if it really starts getting late they (the farmers) will have to get in the fields regardless of soft conditions and that will exasperate compactions and reduce yields. Then things will be later. And later harvest time means a better chance of more soft conditions. Can you see how the snowball just keeps getting worse yet?

You can plant some faster maturing hybrids at the expense of yields. Getting pretty close to an absolute worst case scenario for a lot of farmers. Can’t get the corn in, forecast looks awful, soy prices suck. 

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I talked to a couple of farmers recently (both no crops in) they said old timers have said in the past that the latest they ever planted the corn crop was early-mid June(maybe pre 1979 data referenced) 

one told me one year he replanted beans once on July 4th

 

MS river at crest at STL. now 42 feet.....tied for 4th highest ever

it hit 41.33 feet back on May 6th,,,7th highest....but I assume if this round goes higher that will be wiped from the books because it is the same event

here is the graph from 1993...as you can see the insane summer MCS season did them in...the river is much higher now then this point in 1993 after falling off the spring snow melt season peak

image.png.9b9b508b8d03e7443955c1b0b19b49e9.png

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On 5/21/2019 at 8:17 PM, Chambana said:

So I just plotted 1993 against 2019 so far and the results are insanely similar. 

 

 

 

 

Here is a weather channel article from a couple of weeks ago...it has actually been MORE wet the past 6 months  then 1992/93,,except in Kansas at press time......they are assuming we won't get onto the crazy record MCS pattern

 

Another Great Midwest Flood of 1993 This Summer? Probably Not, But There Are Some Concerning Signs

https://weather.com/safety/floods/news/2019-05-07-great-midwest-flood-1993-compare-contrast-2018-19

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so far the lower MO river hasn't gone insane yet (still very high) partly because the inflow to the Kansas River isn't like it was in 1993....The upper Mississippi River, lower MO, and IL river are feeding the STL levels on the MS

saw this interesting tidbit on the WPC excessive rainfall outlook...of course this is upstream of STL watershed

THE APRIL 23-MAY 22 PERIOD WAS THE WETTEST  
ON RECORD AT KANSAS CITY, MCI, IN 131 YEARS OF RECORDS

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Thank the ridge it is moving a bit more slowly north than a few days ago. The rain will be I-80 north around the lakes except for Sunday, then the pattern ends next week. What a period since December of 2017. Almost 10 inches above since and the ground is saturated to the point it can't handle anymore. Outside last June, it hasn't been by huge monthly amounts, just .75+ above average and boy it piles up.

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looking at the entire run of the 12z GFS

Yes the pattern does change midweek... no big dip in the west....but the hint of a small dip and a semi-SW flow never really goes away

and the pattern isn't exactly dry, especially over the western  portion of the Sub forum

Yes sometimes the high nudges in from the north and northeast but within day or two the return flow sets up and high PW values are back

 

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