• Member Statistics

    15,529
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    davisinstruments
    Newest Member
    davisinstruments
    Joined
Geoboy645

Spring/Summer 2019 Flooding Thread

Recommended Posts

with the next 24 hr big  batch of precipitation now in the forecast

 

RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST   
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST. LOUIS

THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 42.8 FEET BY   FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.  

 

1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993
(2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973
(3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

with the next 24 hr big  batch of precipitation now in the forecast

 

RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION AND FORECAST   
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST. LOUIS

THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 42.8 FEET BY   FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.  

 

1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993
(2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973
(3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

You know #1 was highly anomalous when there is a 6 foot difference between that and 2nd place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You know #1 was highly anomalous when there is a 6 foot difference between that and 2nd place.


I was a teenager living in Central MO then, my grandmother bought the vhs of this video from the Jefferson City TV station.
It’s a good watch if you have ten minutes.

I have lots of memories, of nearly every bridge across the MO and MS rivers being closed, of the local grocery store owners death as he drove his tractor unknowingly into a flood covered 80’ deep washout from a levee burst, of my neighboring town of Rhineland being wiped off the map and rebuilt a few miles away, etc

Let’s hope the rain stops. A 1993 repeat would be all bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a disaster of a pattern, with no end in sight. Not sure what's worse...this or a death ridge.

A few met spring (thru yesterday) precipitation totals...departure to date...all-time ranks in top 20.

Chicago (ORD): 13.52" +4.67" #16

Cincinnati (CVG): 15.10" +3.28" 

Detroit (DTW): 11.29" +3.41" #18

Evansville (EVV): 15.92" +2.99"

Fort Wayne (FWA): 12.29" +2.78" 

Indianapolis (IND): 13.83" +2.35"

Kansas City (MCI): 18.53" +8.23" #4

Marquette (MQT): 13.57" +5.13" #6

Milwaukee (MKE): 11.15" +2.61"

Minneapolis (MSP): 10.76" +3.50"

Moline (MLI): 15.03" +5.13" #10

Paducah (PAH): 20.21" +7.46" #12

Peoria (PIA): 14.84" +4.86" #16

Rockford (RFD): 12.60" +3.78" #18

St Louis (STL): 18.07" +7.32" #8

South Bend (SBN): 11.60" +2.91" 

Springfield IL (SPI): 15.96" +6.43" #14

Springfield MO (SGF): 20.39" +8.25" #9

Toledo (TOL): 11.65" +3.13" #19

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

What a disaster of a pattern, with no end in sight. Not sure what's worse...this or a death ridge.

 

 

I was really concerned for our area going into the weekend and early next week with multiple heavy rain waves for days....

but not so bad so far....with 2 LOT flash flood watch "busts"

but still maybe 3 rounds to go,  before pattern change  Weds....(but turns wet again after a couple dry days)

more of a wet summer pattern later...but large slower moving complexes will dump more rain over any area they park over ..and the ground is soaked 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd say this pattern is worse than a death ridge (I know Chicagowx is shocked to hear that from me lol).  A drought requires no clean up of flooded homes, businesses, etc.  Droughts do hurt farmers, but this pattern is not good for them either since so much planting hasn't been able to be done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

I was really concerned for our area going into the weekend and early next week with multiple heavy rain waves for days....

but not so bad so far....with 2 LOT flash flood watch "busts"

but still maybe 3 rounds to go,  before pattern change  Weds....(but turns wet again after a couple dry days)

more of a wet summer pattern later...but large slower moving complexes will dump more rain over any area they park over ..and the ground is soaked 

Yeah, we actually have been lucky here the past 3 days, only minor amounts. So that's good...but have to try to dodge a few more bullets through mid-week. Then hope the models are wrong in the extended. And LOT is too trigger happy sometimes. Depends on the forecaster though...some like their FFWs. But, models have been trash in this pattern...no help there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd say this pattern is worse than a death ridge (I know Chicagowx is shocked to hear that from me lol).  A drought requires no clean up of flooded homes, businesses, etc.  Droughts do hurt farmers, but this pattern is not good for them either since so much planting hasn't been able to be done.

Lol, wow. But yes, I agree. I'd take 100 and dry right now, for a couple of weeks, in a minute.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well here we go with the flooding here. We got about 2.5 inches or so on Friday. Not that big of a deal right. Well everything is so wet here that it's flooding as if we got 4 or 5 inches. And we are supposed to get a bunch the next two days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MS River at St. Louis is now forecasted to crest at 44ft on the 3rd but then hold at that level for 3-5 days. This would be the #2 crest and potential is there for the crest to be higher by up to 2ft depending on rainfall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A local farmer was interviewed last night about the planting progress and how slow progress has been made. He had been farming since 1984 claiming this is the latest on record that he can remember by far. 

 

By May 28th 90-95% of the corn crop should be planted, and roughly 50% of the bean crop. As of right now 30-35% of the corn crop has been planted, and beans remain around 10% planted. 

Apparently after June 1st the yield goes down 17%.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Calderon said:

MS River at St. Louis is now forecasted to crest at 44ft on the 3rd but then hold at that level for 3-5 days. This would be the #2 crest and potential is there for the crest to be higher by up to 2ft depending on rainfall.

45.2 now

 

1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993
(2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973
(3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

I wouldn't mind a record dry summer..............like really.

Don't see it happening this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At least the pattern is changing and we won't have a direct deep feed of moisture 

the problem is that there is so much water laying around  and soil moistures so high 

that it has become its's own source..

DVN long term

 THE BROAD SCALE   
SEEMS LESS LIKELY FOR REPEAT HEAVY RAINS, BUT IS ALSO NOT A   
SEASONALLY DRY PATTERN AS WELL.  AT LEAST IT'S NOT AN WEST TO EAST   
FRONT, WHICH IS OUR CURRENT PATTERN.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Trends would suggest heaviest rains tonight generally south of I-80.  We'll see.

look at all the flash flood warnings from eastern KS to Peoria 

and the SW Chicago metro under urban flooding warnings ..so from near TOP  to MDW flooding 

and check out the infrared...it looks like a weak tropical storm getting torn apart by SW shear ...with the center over Northern MO LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45.2 now
 
1) 49.58 ft on 08/01/1993
(2) 43.23 ft on 04/28/1973
(3) 42.52 ft on 01/01/2016

Now upped to 46ft.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

not in the sub forum but many places on the AR river in AR should hit the highest level in 50 years since the flood control was built...many levees may be over topped

also after a period  of "drier" weather next week (more like average precip next week) GFS seems to  want to take a tropcial wave move it into the Texas coast around the ridge by days 9-10

with  PW's >2 inches getting sucked north

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 new IL river crest here 27 feet...which would be number 10 on the all time list if we didn't hit number 5 a month ago at 28..I know same "event" but the river only feel to 23.5 in between (18 FS, 22 MOD FS)

 

GFS still wants to being the upper level low or tropical thingy up this way and throw moisture up and over a  stalled a stalled  front on its NW flank

Christ

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Normal level is 12-13 in spring   11-12 in summer....flood stage in 18 feet. moderate flood stage is 22 feet...record 29.4  ..we hit 28 feet in early May 

you can see how the river was in between 15-20 feet all late winter and spring ..then we got drenched in the right spots upstream at the end of April..

I cannot recall when the river was above 22 feet for 30 days straight before....1979 maybe when we had a big crest and several re-rises

any slow moving complex or tropical systems upstream and we are in big  trouble

 

Graph of  Gage height, feet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

207 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019  
   
..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN BURLINGTON, IOWA  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
  
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SATURDAY.  
  
* AT 153 PM CDT, LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FAILURE OF THE   
  TEMPORARY FLOOD PROTECTION AT 4TH AND WASHINGTON STREETS. FLASH   
  FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.  
  
  THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR DOWNTOWN BURLINGTON THIS IS A  
  PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^ Does that mean the Post Office is under water? Fourth and Washington is two blocks further away from the river from the Post Office.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here in Erie all residents in the city are being asked to conserve water usage.  Sewage/storm drainage systems are overloaded, and there's been many instances of stuff backing up into peoples basements.  Been here 13 years now and can't remember this ever being an issue.  Needless to say I'm glad todays convection avoided this area lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In NW Ohio NO corn has been planted yet. That is absolutely insane, and after yesterday’s 3-5” I bet it’ll be quite awhile longer. I feel they’re in a different world two hours from Columbus who has had a pretty regular May to June so far

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

please no north trends

 

LOT

FOR THE CLOSED UPPER LOW, AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER, MODEL AND  
ENSEMBLE PROGS ARE CONCERNING FOR THE PLUME OF 200+% PWAT VALUES  
(2"+) ADVECTED NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN HOW  
NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT IT IS FOR MODELS TO ACCURATELY PREDICT  
TRAJECTORY OF THESE SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS, IT'S FAR TOO EARLY TO  
NAIL DOWN TRENDS. THAT SAID, 51-MEMBER EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (AND  
LAST 2 OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS) HAS INDICATED POSSIBILITY OVER THE  
PAST FEW RUNS THAT ANOMALOUS RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAY SERVE AS A   
BLOCK TO NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ULL FRIDAY- SATURDAY. IF THIS  
OCCURS, LIKELY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT TOTALS OF 2"+ WOULD FOCUS OVER THE  
SOUTHERN CWA OR POINTS SOUTH, WITH MUCH LESS RAIN IF ANY NORTH.  
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. 

 

384

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something else to keep an eye on is the tropical disturbance currently in the Bay of Campeche, some models show a pretty well defined storm that parallels the coast of Mexico and then North into parts of the midwest in 5 days or so. This is obviously subjet to change and still a ways out but any kind of advecting tropical moisture could potentially exacerbate an already bad situation. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.