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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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I'll be honest - I'm not sure since SARS became publicly visible I've seen so many consistent model runs (even if it's the NAM out in time a bit) - return so many results. I'm used to it showing a bunch of "loose matches" but not many actual results in the boxes. There are a few soundings on the NAM in our area that have so many results they go out of the box for Thursday. 

Like @high risk has said - I think the main threat is north of the area. This might be a case where north of the Potomac stands the best changes. Will be interesting to watch model trends as we get closer and closer. 

Risk is there it seems for some big hailers (which except for isolated cases isn't super common around our area). I've seen a few soundings with interesting looking hodos too. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I'll be honest - I'm not sure since SARS became publicly visible I've seen so many consistent model runs (even if it's the NAM out in time a bit) - return so many results. I'm used to it showing a bunch of "loose matches" but not many actual results in the boxes. There are a few soundings on the NAM in our area that have so many results they go out of the box for Thursday. 

Like @high risk has said - I think the main threat is north of the area. This might be a case where north of the Potomac stands the best changes. Will be interesting to watch model trends as we get closer and closer. 

Risk is there it seems for some big hailers (which except for isolated cases isn't super common around our area). I've seen a few soundings with interesting looking hodos too. 

           I like the faster timing of the 18z NAM nest.    What I really like is the combination of shear and lapse rates - combinations like these are rare here, and I suspect they're driving the hits with the analogs.

 

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Just now, high risk said:

           I like the faster timing of the 18z NAM nest.    What I really like is the combination of shear and lapse rates - combinations like these are rare here, and I suspect they're driving the hits with the analogs.

 

Posting the SREF at range below - not for the specific map type - but because it outlines the best risk area really well (and as such the area outlined in SLGT right now for D3). 

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f057.gif

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@high risk I suspect if @Eskimo Joe pops in here he might be more enthusiastic than he normally would be. He's generally pretty down on lapse rates in our parts unless we get an EML or something to advect in. Obviously he might find a reason to deb...but he'll be an interesting "weather vane" - let's crack out the WW007 severe weather scale! 

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4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

@high risk I suspect if @Eskimo Joe pops in here he might be more enthusiastic than he normally would be. He's generally pretty down on lapse rates in our parts unless we get an EML or something to advect in. Obviously he might find a reason to deb...but he'll be an interesting "weather vane" - let's crack out the WW007 severe weather scale! 

Looks pretty meh to me, but weather in general is less and less interesting to me with each passing season.  We haven't had a good storm since the derecho.

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On 5/19/2019 at 2:49 PM, yoda said:

2 inch hail marker on radarscope and maybe some slight rotation?

Saw a report and pics from Clear Spring, MD of 1.75" hail from that cell.  This area can get big hailers when there's a good aid to the updraft.  Interestingly enough, that was the same cell which got it's act together and dropped an EF-1 tornado in Lancaster County, PA (injuring 3 people). 

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12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks pretty meh to me, but weather in general is less and less interesting to me with each passing season.  We haven't had a good storm since the derecho.

I was pretty meh on it except for just keeping an eye on it up until today. Enough consistently good SARS returns and such to at least keep my eye on it. And having @high risk be interested is enough for me to stay partially in. If nothing else - the one big thing you always rightfully say is lacking (lapse rates) might be better this go around. 

I think the biggest "meh" right now is that it looks focused to our north. I'd feel pretty good if I was along a line running from like Pittsburgh to @mappy perhaps. 

Though I think the risk is there for some places to get a really nice cell or two. I think odds are pretty good of one of those days where one or two cells put down really large hail in isolated spots but the area at large doesn't see a widespread event. 

There are a few example of perhaps what could transpire in the Washington Weather Book IIRC - I loved that book in grade school. 

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40 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I was pretty meh on it except for just keeping an eye on it up until today. Enough consistently good SARS returns and such to at least keep my eye on it. And having @high risk be interested is enough for me to stay partially in. If nothing else - the one big thing you always rightfully say is lacking (lapse rates) might be better this go around. 

I think the biggest "meh" right now is that it looks focused to our north. I'd feel pretty good if I was along a line running from like Pittsburgh to @mappy perhaps. 

Though I think the risk is there for some places to get a really nice cell or two. I think odds are pretty good of one of those days where one or two cells put down really large hail in isolated spots but the area at large doesn't see a widespread event. 

There are a few example of perhaps what could transpire in the Washington Weather Book IIRC - I loved that book in grade school. 

Indeed.  The mid level lapse rates are key because it helps sustain the updrafts and therein overcomes the local features (terrain, subtle bay or sea breeze boundary).  All of our big events had a strong EML and respectable mid level lapse rates or remnant tropical system (Isabel in 2003, Ivan in 2004).

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol there could be a high risk here and @Eskimo Joe would find a way to meh it

I look at weather through the lens of my profession.  If I'm interested in an event, it means I'll be working in the EOC.  To get excited about something more than 30 to 48 hours out is foolhardy to me in my old age.

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I'm liking Thursday based off the NAM/NAM NEST/SREFs...  I see the slight risk moving south some on the new Day 2 and an ENH in PA.

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Just now, yoda said:

I'm liking Thursday based off the NAM/NAM NEST/SREFs...  I see the slight risk moving south some on the new Day 2 and an ENH in PA.

Comical...I picked a sounding in our area from the NAM nest at 22z on Thursday and it has a SARS match from DDC (95052300.DDC) with a 6in hail result. Still a TON of hail results showing up from SARS...interestingly enough - there have been some IAD ones showing up in the matches. 

FWIW (not much at this range) the sim reflectivity on the 3km NAM doesn't look all that impressive. I'm half in and half out. 

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37 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Comical...I picked a sounding in our area from the NAM nest at 22z on Thursday and it has a SARS match from DDC (95052300.DDC) with a 6in hail result. Still a TON of hail results showing up from SARS...interestingly enough - there have been some IAD ones showing up in the matches. 

FWIW (not much at this range) the sim reflectivity on the 3km NAM doesn't look all that impressive. I'm half in and half out. 

FWIW (not much at this range) check out the "decent" squall line(s) on sim reflectivity through the entire region on the 0z wrf suite. Obviously far out at the end of their range though.

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SPC outlook for tomorrow -- enhanced baby! 

more details soon. HM was tweeting about it last night, worth a look if you're bored. 

MD_swody2.png

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LWX seems uncertain in their morning AFD https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Quote

There will be plenty of energy for storms to feed on in this environment and the potential formation of severe storms will rely on the timing of the frontal passage and how much heating can occur before the front moves through our area. The main threat window for thunderstorms and severe weather will be the afternoon period and early evening on Thursday during peak heating. There remains a lot of uncertainty on how widespread thunderstorms and showers will be but POPs have been increased along the Mason Dixon Line to account for the increased SPC risk and new guidance keeping the highest chances for precip over our northern zones. Overnight temperatures will remain mild in the mid to upper 60s.

State College though, their AFD is pretty good weenie material https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Quote

Multiple ingredients are present Thursday afternoon and evening for a rather significant severe storm outbreak with numerous fast-moving supercells and mini bow echoes within short TSRA lines. SPC upgraded the previous Slight Risk for Day 2 to an Enhanced Risk for much of our CWA. This upgrades seems warranted as llvl directional shear is impressive and strong leading to broad-loop hodographs and the base of 50kt westerly and WNW winds only around 5KFT agl during the mid afternoon to early evening hours Thursday.

06z NAM is pretty boring, so we shall see today brings. But I think the further north you are, the better your chances of seeing something worth a damn. All the best stuff will be in PA

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36 minutes ago, mappy said:

LWX seems uncertain in their morning AFD https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

State College though, their AFD is pretty good weenie material https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

06z NAM is pretty boring, so we shall see today brings. But I think the further north you are, the better your chances of seeing something worth a damn. All the best stuff will be in PA

Yeah 06z NAM nest has the parameters still but does the DC/Baltimore split it seems. Lame.

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25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah 06z NAM nest has the parameters still but does the DC/Baltimore split it seems. Lame.

yeah but its no better in PA. advertises a couple larger cells in NNE PA towards NJ, but that's it.  its a very broken line of storms ahead of the front, with nothing popping up out ahead. very weird to see when there is an enhanced risk and strong wording from State college. 

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

yeah but its no better in PA. advertises a couple larger cells in NNE PA towards NJ, but that's it.  its a very broken line of storms ahead of the front, with nothing popping up out ahead. very weird to see when there is an enhanced risk and strong wording from State college. 

Almost seems like the trigger just isn't strong enough to get things going until you're in the area you mentioned well north. Pretty much all of our severe days have some aspect of "bust" written all over them. I"m still half in and half out - there hasn't really been any run so far that's brought widespread severe into our area. So I think coverage will be an obvious issue for us. 

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For my area Mount Holly has only about a  40 % chance of storms . A few days ago there was agreement a line would form and move East from I-95 up this way, and head East to the shore.  What actually happened was a Dover, DE and further South scenario. 

I am not sold on a widespread event and think any significant severe is way North.  One thing though, surface moisture after the heat and winds and low dews - getting dry. After this next oppurtunity little in the way of rainfall. And the SE is dry and super hot. I have noticed the trend for the dryness spreading West in time as well.    

Maybe the next wet cycle is June, when exactly , not sure.  

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Almost seems like the trigger just isn't strong enough to get things going until you're in the area you mentioned well north. Pretty much all of our severe days have some aspect of "bust" written all over them. I"m still half in and half out - there hasn't really been any run so far that's brought widespread severe into our area. So I think coverage will be an obvious issue for us. 

As usual for us down here, its all dependent on how north the warm sector gets before the cold front comes through. Need enough daytime heating and lift, otherwise we see nothing. 

PA has a better shot because they get the better ingredients near the warm front and the lift. 

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9 minutes ago, mappy said:

As usual for us down here, its all dependent on how north the warm sector gets before the cold front comes through. Need enough daytime heating and lift, otherwise we see nothing. 

PA has a better shot because they get the better ingredients near the warm front and the lift. 

Maybe we can pull a miracle and keep the warm front JUST to our north. As Ian says - playing with the warm front is not usually a bad thing. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Maybe we can pull a miracle and keep the warm front JUST to our north. As Ian says - playing with the warm front is not usually a bad thing. 

it can work out if timing is right. otherwise if storms pop up they tend to become a blob of messiness vs discrete cells

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10 minutes ago, mappy said:

it can work out if timing is right. otherwise if storms pop up they tend to become a blob of messiness vs discrete cells

my hope is to keep cloud cover at a minimum, get enough instability from warming to break cap and have the lee trough that helps pop storms do its usual thing.  

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Tomorrow is shaping up to be a classic severe weather outbreak for PA and NY.  You have robust surface heating combined with a dynamic front...terrain aided updrafts could produce some storms pushing classic supercells.  I wouldn't be shocked to see a DY1 Moderate risk for parts of PA and NY tomorrow if things come together in the morning.  

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48 minutes ago, mappy said:

yeah but its no better in PA. advertises a couple larger cells in NNE PA towards NJ, but that's it.  its a very broken line of storms ahead of the front, with nothing popping up out ahead. very weird to see when there is an enhanced risk and strong wording from State college. 

     absolutely correct that the NAM nest is not being very aggressive for tomorrow, but at the other end of the spectrum, the two ARW Hi-Res Windows have a very robust event for PA/NY and MD/DE (and maybe WV and northern VA too).    Both bring convection out of the midwest early Thursday and redevelop it east of the mountains, with some impressive radar signatures.     Not saying this will be the outcome, but it could explain some of the more "excited" forecasts.  

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43 minutes ago, frd said:

For my area Mount Holly has only about a  40 % chance of storms . A few days ago there was agreement a line would form and move East from I-95 up this way, and head East to the shore.  What actually happened was a Dover, DE and further South scenario. 

I am not sold on a widespread event and think any significant severe is way North.  One thing though, surface moisture after the heat and winds and low dews - getting dry. After this next oppurtunity little in the way of rainfall. And the SE is dry and super hot. I have noticed the trend for the dryness spreading West in time as well.    

Maybe the next wet cycle is June, when exactly , not sure.  

Honestly, it's about time. A period of dryness would be welcome. 

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5 minutes ago, high risk said:

     absolutely correct that the NAM nest is not being very aggressive for tomorrow, but at the other end of the spectrum, the two ARW Hi-Res Windows have a very robust event for PA/NY and MD/DE (and maybe WV and northern VA too).    Both bring convection out of the midwest early Thursday and redevelop it east of the mountains, with some impressive radar signatures.     Not saying this will be the outcome, but it could explain some of the more "excited" forecasts.  

Latest 12z long-range HRRR has developed storms in WV with storms also dropping towards the MD/PA line by 21z tomorrow. 

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