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WEATHERMINATOR

March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

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15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Winter Storm Watch now issued for Middlesex County from tomorrow afternoon thru Monday morning but for only 2-4" of snow?? per the watch announcement.

There's some wobbling with themodels from what I'm reading, so mixing may be an issue ( isn't it always? )

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16 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Winter Storm Watch now issued for Middlesex County from tomorrow afternoon thru Monday morning but for only 2-4" of snow?? per the watch announcement.

Also this is Mt Holly so they are forecasting for different area than NYC, even though we are right next to it on our eastern end.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
320 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

CTZ011-012-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-030930-
/O.EXA.KOKX.WS.A.0003.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
320 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy wet snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Connecticut and southeast New
  York including New York City and Long Island.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.
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3" to 8" covers all the models for NYC.    The GFS[Cobb Method is No Snow at all] is at the bottom and CMC at the top along with the EURO.   The EURO still goes sub-zero here on the 7th. {three of the last five 12hr.Runs has shown this} which is ridiculous and could mean the EURO needs to detox itself before making any more snow forecasts which have bombed {not bombed out--- unfortunately} all winter.

Remember not all the precipitation in this system is going to be snow.    So who knows what will actually be left.   

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7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

18z NAM wants nothing to do with the GFS track, but seems drier than the Euro -- blend between the two ops. 

That's odd. If I'm not mistaken the EURO normally has a dry bias while the NAM shows the juicier solutions.

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1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

That's odd. If I'm not mistaken the EURO normally has a dry bias while the NAM shows the juicier solutions.

 

The NAM has been surprisingly dry on this event for several runs

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The NAM has been surprisingly dry on this event for several runs

Yes surprisingly being the key word, especially with the 3k being even drier. We're in range where I give the NAM as much or more weight than the globals. I'm honestly not sure what to think. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The NAM has been surprisingly dry on this event for several runs

What would make it drier....is there a dry air issue with this one?

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9 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

3" to 8" covers all the models for NYC.    The GFS is at the bottom and CMC at the top along with the EURO.   The EURO still goes sub-zero here on the 7th. which is ridiculous and could mean the EURO needs to detox itself before making any more snow forecasts which have bombed {not bombed out--- unfortunately} all winter.

Remember not all the precipitation in this system is going to be snow.    So who knows what will actually be left.   

Sub Zero as in temperatures?

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Yes surprisingly being the key word, especially with the 3k being even drier. We're in range where I give the NAM as much or more weight than the globals. I'm honestly not sure what to think. 

Yep it is surprising what the Nam is doing. I know the global models can do some wonky stuff from time to time with qpf close to an event. Personally my favorite model with an impending snowstorm is the RGEM.

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Just now, NutleyBlizzard said:

Yep it is surprising what the Nam is doing. I know the global models can do some wonky stuff from time to time with qpf close to an event. Personally my favorite model with an impending snowstorm is the RGEM.

 

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Rgem is still great for NYC

 

Shows by far the most impressive storm, both duration and intensity wise. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

 

 

Shows by far the most impressive storm, both duration and intensity wise. 

Is it worth much? Never seen anyone say it was better than the others. Also, if there is no consensus, then a bust for some areas remains on the table, no?

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11 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

For being within ~24 hours of the event, the range of solutions is actually pretty huge right now. Exciting stuff. 

Don't we want them in more aggreement?

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34 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said:

TWC covering their assets. They say less than one inch of snow expected in the next 48 hours. But then the next line says that forecast can change.

Are you looking at The Weather Channel App? If so that should be the very last line of weather forecasting you should look at. Pretty much all of those apps are computer automated. 

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Even though the models are depicting a wide range of solutions at least we appear to be in the game and it gives us something to discuss. Gonna be fun to see how this actually ends up, especially with the paltry snow totals we've seen this winter

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3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Are you looking at The Weather Channel App? If so that should be the very last line of weather forecasting you should look at. Pretty much all of those apps are computer automated. 

when they were on tv this morning the weather channel was humping the euro solution as well...

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19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Don't we want them in more aggreement?

Depends. If they're all in agreement for less snow then do we really want that?

The result will be what it will be, so the excitement for me lies in the uncertainty. 

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21 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Is it worth much? Never seen anyone say it was better than the others. Also, if there is no consensus, then a bust for some areas remains on the table, no?

For this range I look to the the NAM then the RGEM. By tomorrow morning I'll start turning to the HRRR a bit more. 

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18 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Are you looking at The Weather Channel App? If so that should be the very last line of weather forecasting you should look at. Pretty much all of those apps are computer automated. 

Yes I was looking at the app. Just for s and grins. I don’t put much stock in it.

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What would make it drier....is there a dry air issue with this one?
It's because as it shifts SE, it does so due to the fact that it is disorganized. The more disorganized it is, the lower the QPF. The RGEM tends to be deadly in this range, so I would be cautious as to using the NAM verbatim right now. Likewise, last night's storm would show that there is the potential for more precip. Also, the SPC is expecting strong storms in the south tomorrow night, thus latent heat comes into play.

All of that being said, I would expect the POTENTIAL for this to be a rather significant (6+) snow event for the tri state.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Rgem is 6+ for the coast 

That would sound great 2 years ago. That model has never been the same since it used to nail everything in the mid and short range. I don't trust it or any other model until 12z tomorrow morning. After yesterday's forecast debacle under 12 hours out (at least in SNE), none of these models are worth investing in. Yes, I know, different set-up but it's a volatile pattern

Wild swings inside 24 hrs are not supposed to happen dammit lol

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3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

It's because as it shifts SE, it does so due to the fact that it is disorganized. The more disorganized it is, the lower the QPF. The RGEM tends to be deadly in this range, so I would be cautious as to using the NAM verbatim right now. Likewise, last night's storm would show that there is the potential for more precip. Also, the SPC is expecting strong storms in the south tomorrow night, thus latent heat comes into play.

All of that being said, I would expect the POTENTIAL for this to be a rather significant (6+) snow event for the tri state.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

The RGEM used to be deadly. I hope it's right, I just don't trust it

I don't remember what the NAM was showing for the NYC area 24 hrs out but it was the only model remotely close to being right in SNE. It was the only one leading the charge showing it chasing the convection and jumping East.

Then again, every storm is different.

Here's to the NYC-BOS corridor maximizing Sunday nights potential! :drunk:

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