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WEATHERMINATOR

March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

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With the Euro coming aboard the Canadian suites, I'm beginning to think the NAM/GFS are missing some of the frontogen. Let's see what happens in about an hour. 

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I'd probably go 6-8" areawide at this point, except 3-6" in SE Suffolk and down along the NJ shore where it probably will mix/change to rain. Some of the banding features/lift on the meso models look impressive, and there could be higher amounts to 10" where those set up. Only inhibiting factor is the speed it's trucking along it. It'll be a less than 12 hour storm for most. 

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Still looks like a substantial hit tomorrow evening into early overnight. 

My call 5-8” locally 10 in some areas. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of one or two 12” amounts but it would be very isolated in any persistent banding. Pecip should begin around 4pm tomorrow could possibly begin as light rain along the coast and NYC but should be very brief. All snow areas north and west. By 6pm snow will blanket the entire area and get increasingly heavy from 9pm to 3am. The snow will most likely abruptly shut off between 4-7am from west to east.

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'd probably go 6-8" areawide at this point, except 3-6" in SE Suffolk and down along the NJ shore where it probably will mix/change to rain. Some of the banding features/lift on the meso models look impressive, and there could be higher amounts to 10" where those set up. Only inhibiting factor is the speed it's trucking along it. It'll be a less than 12 hour storm for most. 

 

7 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Still looks like a substantial hit tomorrow evening into early overnight. 

My call 5-8” locally 10 in some areas. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of one or two 12” amounts but it would be very isolated in any persistent banding. Pecip should begin around 4pm tomorrow could possibly begin as light rain along the coast and NYC but should be very brief. All snow areas north and west. By 6pm snow will blanket the entire area and get increasingly heavy from 9pm to 3am. The snow will most likely abruptly shut off between 4-7am from west to east.

I'm in agreement but want to see what the NAM has to say in an hour before making my first call. Very strange, these late/still paltry NAM runs. 

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4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

 

I'm in agreement but want to see what the NAM has to say in an hour before making my first call. Very strange, these late/still paltry NAM runs. 

Don't be surprised if it stays the same.

It was the first and for a while, the only model showing low qpf here last night and higher qpf for you guys

It seems to be the only model that's handling this pattern with some sort of direction

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17 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Don't be surprised if it stays the same.

It was the first and for a while, the only model showing low qpf here last night and higher qpf for you guys

It seems to be the only model that's handling this pattern with some sort of direction

I expect it to bump totals a bit but not reach the Euro/Canadians. We shall see soon. 'Tis the fun of it. 

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18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Probably but there might be 1 more

The way March has been of late, I won't say die until we see a week of mid-50s/60s with a pattern of weak backdoor cold fronts. 

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The way March has been of late, I won't say die until we see a week of mid-50s/60s with a pattern of weak backdoor cold fronts. 

When is the last time we had three days in a row of measurable snow ?


.

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There was a week in mid January in the mid to late 2000s where we had several snows in a row that began to pile up.

 

That was the last time I remember this.

And for record, tomorrow will be day 4 of snow for anyone N or W of the mid Bronx

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14 minutes ago, friedmators said:


When is the last time we had three days in a row of measurable snow ?


.

If you're not including Traces being reported for the day then it was probably a long time ago.

Have to get Don or Uncle to dig that up.

It might have happened in Jan, Feb or Mar of 15'.   Even though the real goods were up in Eastern Mass., it was still a very pattern/winter for the NYC area

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1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

There was a week in mid January in the mid to late 2000s where we had several snows in a row that began to pile up.

 

That was the last time I remember this.

And for record, tomorrow will be day 4 of snow for anyone N or W of the mid Bronx

Jan 2011 and 14

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6 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

NAM 5-10" region wide

It's really not if you look at the snow maps. Not saying it's right but this is a tricky call along the coast precip type wise and a tricky call for the far interior zones qpf wise.

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

It's really not if you look at the snow maps. Not saying it's right but this is a tricky call along the coast precip type wise and a tricky call for the far interior zones qpf wise.

TD snowmap assuming 10:1 product doesn't line up with accumulated precip product. Doesn't make a difference because it's just a map. I'm not overly concerned considering it being a nighttime event.

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2 minutes ago, terrapin8100 said:

 

IMG_20190302_212423.jpg

This completely ignores the temp profiles. Need to do a deeper analysis than just regurgitating the snow map. Zero chance Baltimore gets 7" with that run. 

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The ratios will be 9-10:1.  Remember surface temps don’t have a huge impact on ratios though much of the event will fall at 31-32 near the coast once we evaporate down the profile from 700-850 and light winds supports close to 10:1

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The ratios will be 9-10:1.  Remember surface temps don’t have a huge impact on ratios though much of the event will fall at 31-32 near the coast once we evaporate down the profile from 700-850 and light winds supports close to 10:1

Not sure I agree, think the coast will be more like 33-34 during the bulk of the event but at night that still may be okay if the snow is heavy enough

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The NAM must be very confused. It has big snow totals in areas it depicts as mainly raining. I'm at the point where the NAM to me can't be totally trusted quite yet. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The ratios will be 9-10:1.  Remember surface temps don’t have a huge impact on ratios though much of the event will fall at 31-32 near the coast once we evaporate down the profile from 700-850 and light winds supports close to 10:1

I agree

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

The NAM must be very confused. It has big snow totals in areas it depicts as mainly raining. I'm at the point where the NAM to me can't be totally trusted quite yet. 

Been noticing that on a lot of models.  Not sure where the disconnect is. 

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