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madwx

March 2019 Discussion

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28 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I usually don't bother rooting for spring until the vernal equinox, but we hit 70° here today, so now bring it!!

It's the Ides of March for me and that's tomorrow so yeah bring it!:drunk:

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Uhm.. well hello, F-Gen band. Looks like folks a few miles on either side of the I-80 corridor has a chance to pick up a quick period of moderate to heavy snow tonight, as this compact clipper pivots across the region with some potential convective features. 

 

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2019031615_RAP_014_41.41,-90.55_winter_ml.png

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1 hour ago, ams30721us said:

Uhm.. well hello, F-Gen band. Looks like folks a few miles on either side of the I-80 corridor has a chance to pick up a quick period of moderate to heavy snow tonight, as this compact clipper pivots across the region with some potential convective features. 

 

h.JPG

rap.JPG

nam.JPG

h1.JPG

rap2.JPG

n2.JPG

2019031615_RAP_014_41.41,-90.55_winter_ml.png

Yeah, exact placement needs to be refined but should come down hard for a while.

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I had to lol about the quick-hitting clipper that will bisect the subforum with a stripe of 1-3" tonight/tomorrow and there's only two posts about it here. Had this been in January it would be a 5 page thread. I'll take my 2" stat padder that will be gone in a couple of hours and then welcome spring.

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Had a whiteout snow squall this morning. Came out of nowhere. Dropped 0.3" in minutes. There was another snow squall warning but the warned squall was less impressive than the unwarned one lol. Now im headed north for one more trip to see their unusually deep snowpack!

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LOT considering a WWA but have held off for now.  Which surprises me considering tonight is St. Patrick's Eve, on a Saturday night to boot, and all the revelers that will likely be out on the roads who could get a messy surprise tonight.  I would have probably gone ahead and pulled the trigger on a WWA for at least between the I-80 and I-88 corridors plus IKK.
 

000
FXUS63 KLOT 162036
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
336 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...
300 PM CDT

Through Sunday...

The quick hitting shot of accumulating snow from a clipper system
late tonight into Sunday morning is the only forecast concern.
Trends point toward a narrow band of about 2-4" of snow centered
near the I-80 corridor. In the hardest hit areas, potential still
exists for a few hours of moderate to heavy snowfall rates of
1"+/hour. However, have opted to hold off on issuing a Winter
Weather Advisory for these reasons: lingering uncertainty in a
setup like this with narrow banded nature and exact placement
being essentially a now-cast; and lower impact timing and milder
antecedent road temps. Will let evening shift take a look at
observational trends for continued possibility of needing to issue
an advisory.

In response to elongated short-wave trough approaching the region
tonight, lower and mid level warm advection will ramp up quickly
and result in fairly strong frontogenesis from 925 mb up to 700
mb, noted on model cross sections. This will also be in the
presence of unstable conditions aloft with negative saturated epv
above the f-gen, along with strong omega centered in the DGZ.
Furthermore, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km or higher will
be in place. The above ingredients continue to favor conceptually
potential for a narrow but likely rather intense area of snow.
Mesoscale nature of much of the setup makes for a very challenging
forecast, especially considering that there isn`t much for
upstream trends yet.

A majority of the 12z guidance shifted northward with the main
snow axis and several even brought northern edge of accumulating
snow up to or a bit north of I-88 corridor including Chicago. In
collaboration with WPC and neighboring WFOs, we followed suit and
centered an axis of about 0.25 to 0.35" liquid equivalent QPF
near/along the I-80 corridor, yielding swath of 2-4" snow amounts
with ratios of 11-14:1. Some of the most bullish models had
upwards of 0.40" QPF in max swath, lending concern toward the
heavier convective rates with the snow and locally 4-5" accums
depending exactly where things set up. With this all being said,
RAP/HRRR guidance was consistently south of the guidance consensus
through the day and a look at the latest 18z NAMs showed a bit of
a southward shift as well. This all goes to show how
uncertain/lower confidence pinpointing mesoscale driven snow
banding is. The other wild card is the antecedent dry air under
the surface high, plus typically sharper cutoffs with f-gen driven
banding, making it such that the extent of minor accums up to an
inch or two on the fringes will need fine-tuning.

Temperatures will drop to the upper 20s to around 30 tonight, with
much of the fall this evening until clouds roll in. Slowed the
temperature rise in the morning with ongoing snow in portions of
the area, as soundings indicate that the snow will end vs. any
change to rain prior to tapering off. Extent/magnitude of any road
impacts will be likely be tied to the narrow area that receives
the heaviest rates and accums, considering mild road temps from
today`s strong mid March sun. Nonetheless, those expecting to be
out driving later tonight or Sunday morning should be prepared for
possibility of some slick roads. Most or all of the snow that
falls will quickly melt by mid day/early afternoon as at least
partial clearing occurs and aforementioned strong March sun. For
the rest of St. Patrick`s Day afternoon, expect steady northwest
winds with temps most spots in low 40s, except upper 30s parts of
northwest Indiana where clouds will clear latest and lakeside due
to winds turning onshore.

Castro

&&

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A band of heavy snow tonight dropped 1-3" in the Cedar Rapids area.  I got 2".  Unfortunately, I totally forgot about the snow and didn't see a single flake of it.  The flakes must have been massive.  This snow puts me 0.1" short of 50" for the season.

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Drove early this morning from IKK to Hinsdale...snow was crazy heavy from home up to about Peotone. Big ole flakes just pouring down. I-57 was snow covered and downright dangerous. 

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3.6” thru 7:00 am from a report in Bourbonnais. Considering the duration to that point, pretty damn impressive.

I can’t recall, but it’s got to be close, this may be our most impressive snowfall of the season

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Just now, King James said:


I can’t recall, but it’s got to be close, this may be our most impressive snowfall of the season

As far as snow intensity, no doubt. Only took until mid March. :D

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What a nice little system. Didn’t even pay any attention to it until yesterday. Picked up some very nice rates overnight. A few totals from around the QC:

Muscatine: 1.6”. MLI: 2.1”.  DVN: 3.0”. Princeton 5.0”. Cambridge: 7.0” 

*Now Top 5 Snowiest seasons in the QC.

Here’s a few picks I snapped around 4am:

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2C9FA9A6-B0B3-486F-B5B0-D0AC5840EA33.jpeg

89F3F2CD-8BB7-4CCC-A218-128D3C5B538D.jpeg

 

new2.jpg

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Came down pretty good earlier, but very short lived.  Looks like the cutoff to no snow was about 10 miles north of here at most as Midway reported nothing.

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Next week is looking great around here. Upper 40’s and lower 50’s with tons of sunshine. The 8-14 day outlook is calling for warmer than normal and drier than normal for the lakes. 

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Spring thaw well underway here. Should have our first 50 degree high since autumn later this week. 4-5” of snow left otg and bare patches starting to show up in usual spots. Unless we have a massive warm up there will be large piles well into April this year. 

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Snow & Graupel showers all day yesterday. Its amazing how many days snow falls in a Great Lakes climate, even in a subpar winter as this. At only 30.4" we definitely sat on the sidelines this winter, and in fact this is my 24th winter measuring snow and only 3 have had less than this in those 24 years (not that its over for sure)....but yesterday was the 73rd day since October 20ths first flakes that snow has fallen this season. Still some dirty parking lot piles but they are on the way out.

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36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Snow & Graupel showers all day yesterday. Its amazing how many days snow falls in a Great Lakes climate, even in a subpar winter as this. At only 30.4" we definitely sat on the sidelines this winter, and in fact this is my 24th winter measuring snow and only 3 have had less than this in those 24 years (not that its over for sure)....but yesterday was the 73rd day since October 20ths first flakes that snow has fallen this season. Still some dirty parking lot piles but they are on the way out.

Snow has fallen on 73 days and only 30" to show for it ? What a horrible climate you live in.

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The last little bits of the big snow piles in the shade(in the neighborhood yards) are now gone here.  All that is left are the big parking lot snow piles.  Even those are dwindling quickly.

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What has been described as a “perfect melt” produced the first dirt patches in the yard yesterday. All last week we had sunny days with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s which provided a gradual melt. Lots of ponding of water and flooded rivers but worst case scenario has been avoided here. 

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On 3/23/2019 at 1:10 PM, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Snow has fallen on 73 days and only 30" to show for it ? What a horrible climate you live in.

First of all this winter is NOT a climo Winter. If the total does not increase this will be the 4th least amount of snow I have measured in 24 years of measuring snow. But secondly, you are from the south where there is no winter and have only been in Indiana (which is still the south to me) 2 years, so you dont understand the Great Lakes climate. Having mood flakes falling all the time when there's nothing else going on in the weather is a huge PLUS to the climate imo, not a minus. When the rest of the subforum is stuck in a cold dry pattern with no action, you can always count on flakes flying in Michigan. Each Winter averages between 60 and 80 days were snow falls between October and April here. Anywhere from 20 to 40 of those days only being a trace, it does not take 73 days of snow to accumulate 30" lol. (Last winter had 62.5" and 71 days of snow). The point of my post is that the normal frequent mood flakes were there, but the normal number of snowstorms were not. I can't be mad that the Western sub got the goods for a change, because in recent years it's usually been us. But this Winter, while it had some good times, will NOT be residing in my memory bank of fun winters. Hopefully we get back to our snowy streak next season.

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23 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

What has been described as a “perfect melt” produced the first dirt patches in the yard yesterday. All last week we had sunny days with highs in the mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s which provided a gradual melt. Lots of ponding of water and flooded rivers but worst case scenario has been avoided here. 

That is EXACTLY what happened here in early to mid March 2015 and mid to late March 2014. Historically deep late season snowpacks were in place but slow melts without rain prevented any major flooding issues.  I remember I could not believe how lucky we were because we did it not once but 2 winters in a row without a drop of rain or a high dew torch. Although snowmelt in Spring of 2014 did uncover some ornamental tree damage and excessive wildlife loss due to the unprecedented severity of the Winter.

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When looking out at a deep 2' snow pack the morning of March 12 I thought I wouldn't see lawn grass until April.  Nope.  As of now areas of bare ground tend to exceed covered areas.  Fields are almost completely free of snow aside from drift zones. By the time the potential storm rolls around later this week it'll just be snowbanks.  It's not like it's been excessively warm here, but we've lacked any refreshing 1"+ snows to help keep the snow pack fresh and a good reflector/radiator for the numerous clear days we've had since the bomb cyclone.  Since that storm we've had only a few hundredths inch of QPF.  Blah.

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I haven't seen any posts from weatherbo for about 10 days. I hope he didn't get buried in a snow drift. I am interested what the snowpack's like up there.

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