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NEG NAO

February 20 - 21 Winter Storm Threat

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36 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

What do you think of the warm nose in terms of that TTN to SI line...wouldn't that argue for more sleet to rain? 

I’m more worried about it down by TTN than the NYC metro.  Remember that for the system a week ago no high res models showed more than 2 to maybe 3 hours of sleet and the NAM was almost all sleet on some runs 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m more worried about it down by TTN than the NYC metro.  Remember that for the system a week ago no high res models showed more than 2 to maybe 3 hours of sleet and the NAM was almost all sleet on some runs 

Thanks. I'm in north east Middlsex Co; if TTN flips we usually do not long after. Conversely, snow sometimes doesn't get past TTN much to get here. 

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14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m more worried about it down by TTN than the NYC metro.  Remember that for the system a week ago no high res models showed more than 2 to maybe 3 hours of sleet and the NAM was almost all sleet on some runs 

You think TTN gets alot of sleet again after the switch?

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I don't see much sleet with this. Looks like a front end snow thump to rain scenario for us. 

Primary is weak and very far to the west and there's a strong cold airmass in place. This is much different than the last two systems. 

One had a very strong intensifying primary (980s) in the lakes to secondary. The other (Sunday) had a weak low right near us with little CAD ahead of it. 

1-3" WWA is too low. 3-6" is much more likely. Snow could be heavy for a time, maybe 1-2"+ hour rates. This will be a classic WAA thumper. 

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14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some similarities to the November storm. This is a much colder airmass than we've seen with the other storms. Dews are only in the single digits. 

Similar traffic snarls too I'm afraid.

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40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't see much sleet with this. Looks like a front end snow thump to rain scenario for us. 

Primary is weak and very far to the west and there's a strong cold airmass in place. This is much different than the last two systems. 

One had a very strong intensifying primary (980s) in the lakes to secondary. The other (Sunday) had a weak low right near us with little CAD ahead of it. 

1-3" WWA is too low. 3-6" is much more likely. Snow could be heavy for a time, maybe 1-2"+ hour rates. This will be a classic WAA thumper. 

What? 1-3 inches is more than reasonable for tomorrow. 2 inch per hour rates? Stop, nothing supports that. Before you go criticizing Upton and Mt. Holly for their forecasts, you need to get your info straight. No one in the metro is getting 6 inches out of this and very likely not any more than 3 inches at the most. As to your other post, this is a completely, totally different setup and storm than November, like not even remotely close, besides the time of day

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15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What? 1-3 inches is more than reasonable for tomorrow. 2 inch per hour rates? Stop, nothing supports that. Before you go criticizing Upton and Mt. Holly for their forecasts, you need to get your info straight. No one in the metro is getting 6 inches out of this and very likely not any more than 3 inches at the most. As to your other post, this is a completely, totally different setup and storm than November, like not even remotely close, besides the time of day

He said some similarity. Not complete. All storms are singularly unique, so that argument has its limits as well. A few of inches of snow, no matter how or why it gets here, during rush hour, will have the same kind of nasty effects as the storm in November. So there are some similarities. If you've been here awhile, you know my primary interest in weather is in its social impacts. How we get there is much less relevant from a social science point of view. That is the story. Since 2 feet of snow in the higher elevations of ME have minimal social impact, it really isn't news. But 3 inches coming down hard during commuter and school dismissal time is very much a big story. So that is what people need to plan for.

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14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What? 1-3 inches is more than reasonable for tomorrow. 2 inch per hour rates? Stop, nothing supports that. Before you go criticizing Upton and Mt. Holly for their forecasts, you need to get your info straight. No one in the metro is getting 6 inches out of this and very likely not any more than 3 inches at the most. As to your other post, this is a completely, totally different setup and storm than November, like not even remotely close, besides the time of day

Don't talk in absolutes

He might be right if the models are wrong with the precip placement and the advancement of the warm air.

Either way , I like 2-4.

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

He said some similarity. Not complete. All storms are singularly unique, so that argument has its limits as well. A few of inches of snow, no matter how or why it gets here, during rush hour, will have the same kind of nasty effects as the storm in November. So there are some similarities. If you've been here awhile, you know my primary interest in weather is in its social impacts. How we get there is much less relevant from a social science point of view. That is the story. Since 2 feet of snow in the higher elevations of ME have minimal social impact, it really isn't news. But 3 inches coming down hard during commuter and school dismissal time is very much a big story. So that is what people need to plan for.

Alot of kids are off for winter break so that's good.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Alot of kids are off for winter break so that's good.

SOme are, but many districts got rid of winter breaks due to the last decade of snow. We're already talking about an early dismissal.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Alot of kids are off for winter break so that's good.

And just like that, the superintendent just called. Early dismissal tomorrow. Not taking any chances.

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

SOme are, but many districts got rid of winter breaks due to the last decade of snow. We're already talking about an early dismissal.

They got rid of winter breaks ? Seriously ?

Wow

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I don't think this will be the November storm but in terms of setup it's definitely the most similar of the winter, should be a snow to rain event (wouldn't expect much icing) and if the snow comes in like a wall look out.

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. 

Well to be honest I am disappointed. Was hoping for at least a slight jog northeast. Perhaps like Snowgoose said tomorrow will be the day of movement

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

They got rid of winter breaks ? Seriously ?

Wow

Many districts have recently dumped it.  It was brought in during the 70s to save fuel on heating schools during the oil crisis and many kept it but they’re starting to spread things out like giving off the entire week of thanksgiving instead or adding a fall break. 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Many districts have recently dumped it.  It was brought in during the 70s to save fuel on heating schools during the oil crisis and many kept it but they’re starting to spread things out like giving off the entire week of thanksgiving instead or adding a fall break. 

Ours gets a week in November, NJ has teacher convention, election day, and Veterans Day all in one week. So some districts, many actually, give the week off, and Disney World thanks them for it. The Feb week and even the 4 day Presidents Day is going away due to lots of snow and Sandy over the past decade; schools would be scrambling to make up days. 2010,11, 14, and 15 burned so many snow days we said enough, we don't need to plan days off in mid-winter. Also going away are the Sept Jewish holidays, from when so many staff were Jewish. We haven't had all of them for a few years now. If we don't use any snow days ( hasn't happened in years ) we add em on to Memorial Day weekend. The folks in Maine thank us. So does the shore.

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My new favorite table/graphic...for Newark, LaGuardia and Philly.  Between the American models, the Euro and CMC, I'm not seeing any models with frozen LE <0.3" right now for most of the Philly-NYC region and most have 0.5"+ frozen LE, as snow+sleet; note that maps of the CMC don't show sleet, but soundings show a decent amount of sleet (~0.3" LE as sleet) in addition to the 1-3 of snow that model is showing.  And most of this falls between about noon and 6 pm after everyone gets to work.  Sound familiar?  

 

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