NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: For this winter I'd take that and run if it was the final outcome. I do think the Euro being that much further NW with the heavy snow axis is a big red flag for the GFS, the snowmap is a little deceiving because it includes snow thats already on the ground but it looks like heaviest snow axis would be Baltimore to Philly to Allentown to just West of NYC I like having the EURO and the NAM in my camp BUT I am still going with the lower CMC amount for today because of what has happened previously - that could change have to wait for temp profiles tomorrow and speed of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I like having the EURO and the NAM in my camp BUT I am still going with the lower CMC amount for today because of what has happened previously - that could change have to wait for temp profiles tomorrow and speed of the storm Temp profiles shouldn't be any issue for our area with the initial overrunning if it actually comes in and makes it to this latitude. Generating a snowpack would also enhance the threat of some icing later on but yea these are all details to sort out. Right now we have to see where this overrunning really sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I like having the EURO and the NAM in my camp BUT I am still going with the lower CMC amount for today because of what has happened previously - that could change have to wait for temp profiles tomorrow and speed of the storm Temp profiles are the least of our worries now. Let’s actually get the core of the WAA precip this far north and east. If we do we will see 4-8 inches before any changeover. If not we won’t see much of anything 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Temp profiles are the least of our worries now. Let’s actually get the core of the WAA precip this far north and east. If we do we will see 4-8 inches before any changeover. If not we won’t see much of anything Yea this seems pretty cut or dry and basically all or nothing unfortunately, either the overrunning gets here and it's at least advisory likely warning level snowfall or it doesn't and it's trace to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z EURO has 4 -6 inches throughout much of Central and North NJ https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20190221-0800z.html Gets to our doorstep and the best amounts stop....it's fantasy anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Winter Storm Watch in effect here from Wednesday morning thru Wednesday night for 3-5" of snow and a light glaze of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Winter Storm Watch in effect here from Wednesday morning thru Wednesday night for 3-5" of snow and a light glaze of ice. NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ070-071-101>106-191100- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0004.190220T1100Z-190221T0600Z/ HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY- EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FLEMINGTON, SOMERVILLE, NEW BRUNSWICK, TRENTON, MEDIA, PHILADELPHIA, HONEY BROOK, OXFORD, WEST CHESTER, KENNETT SQUARE, COLLEGEVILLE, POTTSTOWN, NORRISTOWN, LANSDALE, CHALFONT, PERKASIE, MORRISVILLE, AND DOYLESTOWN 316 PM EST MON FEB 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A LIGHT GLAZE POSSIBLE. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. * WHEN...FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 NAM looked great at hr 54. Solid for NYC. But then poof there goes the heavier rates once it gets in CT. Looks like this winter is trying to find as many ways as possible to screw us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Winter storm watches are flying all over the mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Upton isn’t buying anything more than 1-2 inches for the entire metro area and for good reason. Their new disco just came out. This is another poor setup for us. 1-2 inches is a best case scenario IMO and we may very well only see a trace. Upton’s Disco: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Guys, FYI the new Euro is only showing 1-2 inches across the metro for Wednesday/Thursday. And that’s both 10:1 and Kuchera, same output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Upton isn’t buying anything more than 1-2 inches for the entire metro area and for good reason. Their new disco just came out. This is another poor setup for us. 1-2 inches is a best case scenario IMO and we may very well only see a trace. Upton’s Disco: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off It's colder this time around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Upton isn’t buying anything more than 1-2 inches for the entire metro area and for good reason. Their new disco just came out. This is another poor setup for us. 1-2 inches is a best case scenario IMO and we may very well only see a trace. Upton’s Disco: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off How come the mid atlantic is getting several inches if this is a poor setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How come the mid atlantic is getting several inches if this is a poor setup? For us. I don’t care about the mid-Atlantic nor was I talking about them. It’s an obvious poor setup for us, Upton agrees. And it doesn’t matter that it’s colder, it’s irrelevant, read their disco they explain the bad setup very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 It's going to be another coating to an inch event 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: For us. I don’t care about the mid-Atlantic nor was I talking about them. It’s an obvious poor setup for us, Upton agrees. And it doesn’t matter that it’s colder, it’s irrelevant, read their disco they explain the bad setup very well I agreed with you for last nights bust but if the pecip gets in quicker its a great setup. This is no way a bad setup the snow just needs to arrive sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: I agreed with you for last nights bust but if the pecip gets in quicker its a great setup. This is no way a bad setup the snow just needs to arrive sooner. The setup isn’t going to allow that to happen though. The Upton disco touched on just that. And last night was a total dumpster fire bust a rama. Why people thought it was going to snow with those soundings, even up by me is just mind boggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I agreed with you for last nights bust but if the pecip gets in quicker its a great setup. This is no way a bad setup the snow just needs to arrive sooner. Hopefully your wrong. But I think your setting yourself up for disappointment, like we've all had this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 Looks like if you are south of I-80 and west of the Hudson its a SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Hopefully your wrong. But I think your setting yourself up for disappointment, like we've all had this year. Yea to be honest with you I cant wait for Spring already LOL.... but a nice 2 foot blizzard would be nice thrown in there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Looks like if you are south of I-80 and west of the Hudson its a SECS Those 10:1 NAM maps are grossly overdone because they count sleet as snow. Use the “positive snow depth” option, much more accurate: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021818&fh=69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Those 10:1 NAM maps are grossly overdone because they count sleet as snow. Use the “positive snow depth” option, much more accurate: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021818&fh=69 its still a SECS south of I-80 and west of the Hudson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Those 10:1 NAM maps are grossly overdone because they count sleet as snow. Use the “positive snow depth” option, much more accurate: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021818&fh=69 Is the NAM ever even right? ANd anyway, it will change by tomorrow. But I could see Upton not thinking much of this one but the areas just to the south maybe doing a little better, like 3-4. that would be Mt Holly's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFreak2000 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: Is the NAM ever even right? ANd anyway, it will change by tomorrow. But I could see Upton not thinking much of this one but the areas just to the south maybe doing a little better, like 3-4. that would be Mt Holly's wheelhouse. Nam mostly sucks. I would wait until tomorrow 12z runs to really see if that plume of moisture makes it north. That high is really pressing it so there’ll be some crazy precip gradients. Like philly could get 8 inches and we can get an inch. The precip is getting shredded by that stubborn high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowFreak2000 said: Nam mostly sucks. I would wait until tomorrow 12z runs to really see if that plume of moisture makes it north. That high is really pressing it so there’ll be some crazy precip gradients. Like philly could get 8 inches and we can get an inch. The precip is getting shredded by that stubborn high. The 12Z Euro sucks too ? It is siding with the NAM - so how about the GFS ? Have to have an open mind about this situation until close enough to make a good call but I think this is going to be another nowcasting event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: The 12Z Euro sucks too ? It is siding with the NAM - so how about the GFS ? Gfs is well south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs is well south So where are we at with the different models, and which is the one to bet on......or are all of them useless until like Wed morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 51 minutes ago, snowman19 said: For us. I don’t care about the mid-Atlantic nor was I talking about them. It’s an obvious poor setup for us, Upton agrees. And it doesn’t matter that it’s colder, it’s irrelevant, read their disco they explain the bad setup very well I have to disagree, this is a classic WAA front-end thump. It happened a few years ago where we had like 5-6" in an hour or two. There's a reason why warnings are up in the Mid-Atlantic. But we're definitely on the northern edge of this, so it'll be a close call. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs is well south I know that I was asking if he thought that was always accurate FWIW JB thinks the GFS is wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 WSW all the way up to Sussex County, I think we may finally score a decent storm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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