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NEG NAO

February 20 - 21 Winter Storm Threat

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The winter of garbage and scraps continues.

They'll just be enough future snowfall in the books to stay out of the top 10 lowest territory.

But of course it'll all be gone in 12 hours anyway. If we get 3"+ then this winter will go from the worst I've experienced to the third worst. 

Take any snow you can get

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A couple of ensemble probability posts for tomorrows event.  Big QPF and asstd bigger snowfall peels east somewhere near I80.  00z/19 EPS further N than 0z6/19 GEFS. 03z/19 SREF not that promising for NYC but i suspect 2-3" before the change to sleet etc.  This is what I used for one of my local friend posts this morning.  These probabilities can temper enthusiasm but are good AI checks against hope. Let the reality check occur by 6P Wednesday. 

Screen Shot 2019-02-19 at 5.38.31 AM.png

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Gonna go with based on what I've seen from yesterday, between 1-4" for my area. I think areas west of the GSP towards Manchester get closer to the 3-4". East of the GSP get around 2", and the barrier islands get around 1, maybe 2".

I'm concerned that we may get a prolonged freezing rain or sleet event. Think that the cold is going to hold on longer at the surface

 

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

3k Nam is also faster with the precip

 

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

3k Nam is also faster with the precip

When would be the start time? Concerned about another November debacle 

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Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 or anyone else , even if the precip comes faster ------> what about the dreaded mid levels ?

The faster the onset precip is the more frozen we will get. There is alot of cold air in place before it arrives.

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28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam is further north with the precip and quicker

Few inches for the city

It continues to shear out the system later and later and we are seeing the usual north push this year.  This time we started off far enough north that it works in our favor.  There’s going to be some sort of banding with this as well in all likelihood as there usually is on the northern side of a snow shield in these setups.  I’m becoming increasingly confident we could see 3-4 inches or more.  

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is still alot warmer and less snowy than the other models.

88, all winter the long term models have not been much help and we all know how the short term models have been so yes I hope for snow but in the next breath I say we flip a coin .

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem has snow reaching the city by 11am, flips to sleet around 7.

Looks like 2-3"

74 , you sure about that timing as I just took a look at Rgem and am I mistaken or is it more like by late afternoon that it starts ????

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

74 , you sure about that timing as I just took a look at Rgem and am I mistaken or is it more like by late afternoon that it starts ????

It looks like 16z but could very well be virga the first few hours

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Don’t forget that 16z is Zulu time, not 1600 our time. 

And further bear in mind that the relationship thereof changes in a few weeks, just to make sure none of us ever feel smart for too long.

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Nice improvements on the 12Z Euro: 4-6" for most of CNJ/E PA and 3-4" for NYC/NE NJ (in Upton's CWA).   4" line runs from the NW Warren/Sussex border down to midtown Manhattan and then to JFK, roughly; a 2nd 4" line runs from about Baltimore to Wilmington and then over to about LBI, with everything in between those lines in the 4-6" swath in NJ and PA all the way out to Central PA (where it eventually gets to 6-8").  Like it.  3" line runs from about Middletown, NY to Stamford, CT and down to about Brookhaven, LI.  As modeled.  

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