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Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

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15 minutes ago, wegoweather said:

Map

Not too far off, and in line with guidance at that time.

How about posting the evening update too.

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14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not too far off, and in line with guidance at that time.

How about posting the evening update too.

I thought you didn't make one?

At 8:15 pm it really wasn't a forecast anymore.  

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13 minutes ago, wegoweather said:

I thought you didn't make one?

At 8:15 pm it really wasn't a forecast anymore.  

Not on here, no. Just some trolling cyclone on his low calls luck.

And actually yes, forecasts evolve. It's called observational forecasting. Kind of like what others (NWS offices) did as well, just a day late and a dollar short for some of them.

Maybe you'll learn that one day, and in turn, can come up with better responses.

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Just now, UMB WX said:

LoL at being so Upset at LOT in such a Conditional System.  Bitter apple

It's how they handled the headlines, and handled things as the event unfolded. Outside of that, they were on point leading up to the event.

I'm not the only one that felt that way, even internally. I just obviously freely voice my opinion more.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

It's how they handled the headlines, and handled things as the event unfolded. Outside of that, they were on point leading up to the event.

I'm not the only one that felt that way, even internally. I just obviously freely voice my opinion more.

^^^^^ yepyepyep

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

It's how they handled the headlines, and handled things as the event unfolded. Outside of that, they were on point leading up to the event.

I'm not the only one that felt that way, even internally. I just obviously freely voice my opinion more.

It is the way you voice said opinion, that gets noticed here especially over the last few days. Just saying...

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YYZ snow total was 2.9".  So, yeah, rather big bust here compared to the forecast of 6-10".  Nothing EC could do. Short-term, hi-res models ruled the day, but by that time it was too late to do a complete 180 on amounts. 

 

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On 2/13/2019 at 3:57 AM, snowstormcanuck said:

YYZ snow total was 2.9".  So, yeah, rather big bust here compared to the forecast of 6-10".  Nothing EC could do. Short-term, hi-res models ruled the day, but by that time it was too late to do a complete 180 on amounts. 

 

Wow that is a brutal bust, how much sleet/freezing rain did you end up with or was it dryslot issues?

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6 hours ago, wegoweather said:

 

Screenshot_20190212-225513_Chrome.jpg

Looks pretty good. Also note Storm recognized by 6 pm it was going to be major icing event. Every model underperformed on the warm air. As RC said it's probably best to side on the error of more warm air. But by 6pm when the event began as sleet IMBY which is central to the metro you knew any warming would lead to freezing rain which is what occurred. Therefore, it was clear greater than .25 " of ice was pretty much a lock and the forecast had to adapt. Vey difficult call. Fun and rare storm for these parts. Post debate is good,educational, and entertaining minus the smart azz comments from one guy which are unnecessary and detract from the overall discussion.

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Wow that is a brutal bust, how much sleet/freezing rain did you end up with or was it dryslot issues?

QPF was over-modeled. EURO, NAM, GEM were in the 1.00-1.25" range. We ended up with about 0.75". And the transition to sleet happened much sooner than anticipated, so we wasted a lot of that reduced available precip on pellets.

It happens. On to the next one.

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35 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

25" or more fell from what I can tell.  I know my 60" snow stick isn't showing anymore...pics when it's daylight.

That's incredible. I always thought of myself as a snow lover, but I wonder if I could handle that much. Even with a Jeep, or an F450, you're stuck right now, assuming the plows will take a bit of time.

 

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44 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

That's incredible. I always thought of myself as a snow lover, but I wonder if I could handle that much. Even with a Jeep, or an F450, you're stuck right now, assuming the plows will take a bit of time.

 

  Def snowed in and probably won't see a plow up this way today (most likely after mid-day tomorrow).  Most all the hi-res models were pointing to a 2' storm right through here so I was prepared, even tho the forecast wasn't calling for 2'+.  This is the deepest snow I've ever had... 

If I have an emergency, they're gonna have to airlift me :D

 

MQT  24.2" in 22 hours 1.54" liquid

 

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53 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

  Def snowedL in and probably won't see a plow up this way today (most likely after mid-day tomorrow).  Most all the hi-res models were pointing to a 2' storm right through here so I was prepared, even tho the forecast wasn't calling for 2'+.  This is the deepest snow I've ever had... 

If I have an emergency, they're gonna have to airlift me :D

 

MQT  24.2" in 22 hours 1.54" liquid

 

Luckily you've got youth on your side. Stay away from boozing, drugs, and choking hazards and you should be okay. :)

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2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Luckily you've got youth on your side. Stay away from boozing, drugs, and choking hazards and you should be okay. :)

measured between 25-28"... I have nothing to measure the depth with but I know it's over 60".

Welcome to the Overlook Hotel

IMG_8536.JPG.6cedfc178aaad7738a5b3719fff5ea03.JPG

IMG_8540.JPG.28f85769d09a7f22bec16e47f383725b.JPG

 

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42 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

measured between 25-28"... I have nothing to measure the depth with but I know it's over 60".

Welcome to the Overlook Hotel

IMG_8536.JPG.6cedfc178aaad7738a5b3719fff5ea03.JPG

IMG_8540.JPG.28f85769d09a7f22bec16e47f383725b.JPG

 

Incredible. I wish i was there, but then id be stranded lol.

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17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Incredible. I wish i was there, but then id be stranded lol.

You should have driven the extra couple hours! :P

shows the 2'+area nicely

I See your Newberry hole still... lol  Your magnet died.

sfav2_CONUS_24h_2019021312.png.387ae626b62c64f6883bda9b1f678188.png

 

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

measured between 25-28"... I have nothing to measure the depth with but I know it's over 60".

Welcome to the Overlook Hotel

IMG_8536.JPG.6cedfc178aaad7738a5b3719fff5ea03.JPG

IMG_8540.JPG.28f85769d09a7f22bec16e47f383725b.JPG

 

Congrats Bo!!  Incredible stuff.

You should become a COOP observer for the NWS.  You may set all kinds of snow records for MI. :thumbsup:

I think MQT's record depth is 63" in March 1990; not sure about the MI state record.

Ok, back to my self-imposed exile.

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

You should have driven the extra couple hours! :P

shows the 2'+area nicely

I See your Newberry hole still... lol  Your magnet died.

sfav2_CONUS_24h_2019021312.png.387ae626b62c64f6883bda9b1f678188.png

 

There was maybe 2" snow with the storm but id say a good 4" maybe 5" les. But like i said they never have snow this deep in newberry.

 

Some good snow squalls at home it looks like. My driveway will prob be an ice crust with some wind whipped powder on top.

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Congrats Bo!!  Incredible stuff.

You should become a COOP observer for the NWS.  You may set all kinds of snow records for MI. :thumbsup:

I think MQT's record depth is 63" in March 1990; not sure about the MI state record.

Ok, back to my self-imposed exile.

I agree bo. They need reports from your area. So much more snow than surrounding areas. Theres 60"+ at your place, 46" otg at MQT and prob half that in the actual city of Marquette. 

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3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Congrats Bo!!  Incredible stuff.

You should become a COOP observer for the NWS.  You may set all kinds of snow records for MI. :thumbsup:

I think MQT's record depth is 63" in March 1990; not sure about the MI state record.

Ok, back to my self-imposed exile.

 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree bo. They need reports from your area. So much more snow than surrounding areas. Theres 60"+ at your place, 46" otg at MQT and prob half that in the actual city of Marquette. 

Hey, guys.  I did report to MQT for about 8 months a couple years ago.  They're who gave me my snow sticks, rain gauge, etc....  The offered to make me a co-op about 6 months in, but at the time I wasn't sure how long I'd be here and I didn't want them investing time and money, just for me to move away, so I declined.  I still report for them once and a while and I'm buds with the met-tech that came and took measurements and set everything up for me and sometimes MQT will call me to get a now-time report to see what it's doing up here..  TBH, I didn't like reporting daily... took the fun away.  I know for a fact tho, there's a shit ton of unreported snow and snow depths deep in the Huron's.... Lot's of little micro-climates like mine that over achieve.

BTW... picked up an additional 2" since 7 this morning. :)

ahhhh.... come back, Beav!

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7 hours ago, weatherbo said:

25" or more fell from what I can tell, still snowing.  I know my 60" snow stick isn't showing anymore...pics when it's daylight.

Good lord

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4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

A couple more pics before the dig out.

my deck

IMG_8541.JPG.9ceaef353d2a538aa41576e45a432d2b.JPG

IMG_8545.JPG.ecaafe1ba04754da053a42e8e94fe018.JPG

What deck :lmao: It wasn't that long ago that you had very little on the ground too. Crazy.

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7 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Picked up 2-3" or so from some backlash snows, so we'll storm total this into respectability.

Same here 3" with the backlash and lake effect, still snowing pretty hard too.

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