jaydreb Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nice GFS op run, first a wave for the northern 1/2 and then a wave for the southern 1/2 of the forum. Everyone gets some love through day 11. Yep. Very active with lots of chances to track. Can’t ask for much more at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 32 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Boundary sets up just a touch too north next weekend on 12z GFS. FV3 shows show as soon as Friday it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 FV3 shows some nuclear bomb at 360/384. JB getting out all his favorite analgos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nice GFS op run, first a wave for the northern 1/2 and then a wave for the southern 1/2 of the forum. Everyone gets some love through day 11. I was laughing to myself when I watched JB's video today about the MJO and the SSWE . Seems he did an Isotherm moment there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: FV3 shows some nuclear bomb at 360/384. JB getting out all his favorite analgos 1993 - this will be the 3 rd time he used it so far this winter. ( along with many others ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nice GFS op run, first a wave for the northern 1/2 and then a wave for the southern 1/2 of the forum. Everyone gets some love through day 11. You can see the GFS though is now showing crazy SE ridging on the last 3 Op runs and many ensembles from 2/8-2/12 while the Euro has started abandoning the idea. It’s likely a result of the GFS incorrect MJO evolution 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: You can see the GFS though is now showing crazy SE ridging on the last 3 Op runs and many ensembles from 2/8-2/12 while the Euro has started abandoning the idea. It’s likely a result of the GFS incorrect MJO evolution it is a risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, frd said: I was laughing to myself when I watched JB's video today about the MJO and the SSWE . Seems he did an Isotherm moment there. Haven't seen it yet, might listen on my way home in a bit. JB sometimes throws out a useful nugget, but you have to be able to know when he is in spin mode and full of bleep and what to toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 GEFS showing a positive NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, frd said: 1993 - this will be the 3 rd time he used it so far this winter. ( along with many others ) LOL... he uses March 93 EVERY time there is any kind of full latitude trough in the east when only 1/10000000 of those will ever turn into some kind of monster storm. It takes way more than just some deep trough to get that result. I have been looking at February 1993 though as an example of a -EPO pattern that was fairly snowly here...VERY snowy up my way, and at least somewhat snowy in the urban area. But it did it with an EPO ridge that was further east and a displaced PV in eastern Canada. But again, if you can get a mechanism to suppress the storms as they come east a -PNA pattern can lead to a parade of storms into cold air. But you have to have some way to prevent cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: GEFS showing a positive NAO That isn't a positive NAO. It looks neutral to maybe slightly negative there. But it's definitely NOT the NAO block we need either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That isn't a positive NAO. It looks neutral to maybe slightly negative there. But it's definitely NOT the NAO block we need either. meh...i hope the GEFS is a disaster beceause its mishandling of MJO or maybe we are heading towards a more -EPO pattern for 2nd half of Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: That isn't a positive NAO. It looks neutral to maybe slightly negative there. But it's definitely NOT the NAO block we need either. Using that panel is a good way to show how vital it is to our sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Yea 12z GEFS lost the blocking look and so it goes to complete crap in the long range with western trough eastern ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Using that panel is a good way to show how vital it is to our sensible weather. yep...and you can do that with EVERY run the last week and the NAO...there is a direct correlation. More blocking, trough into the east...less blocking, trough dumps into the west and eastern ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 GEPS looks as bit different lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea 12z GEFS lost the blocking look and so it goes to complete crap in the long range with western trough eastern ridge. It can't be that trustworthy if it's jumping around like this, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea 12z GEFS lost the blocking look and so it goes to complete crap in the long range with western trough eastern ridge. GFS seems kinda bouncy from a readers POV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: GEPS looks as bit different lol yea but that is an old run...wait I am sure todays 12z will look like crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: GFS seems kinda bouncy from a readers POV It is... I am not making a forecast just stating that this GEFS run was complete garbage. The GEFS has a severe problem with jumping around for an ensemble run to run. I tend to try to take a 24 hour cycle of the GEFS and use it as one ensemble. We have had 2 pretty good GEFS runs, 1 mediocre, and 1 awful in the last 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: It is... I am not making a forecast just stating that this GEFS run was complete garbage. The GEFS has a severe problem with jumping around for an ensemble run to run. I tend to try to take a 24 hour cycle of the GEFS and use it as one ensemble. We have had 2 pretty good GEFS runs, 1 mediocre, and 1 awful in the last 4. For sure...basically just reading the analysis of each run the reader can tell the inconsistencies. I personally don't think right now the real pattern has shown its hand yet and may never on the ensembles...something is definitely kinking up the long range looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 It's just one run of the GEFS...waiting for the whole 12z suite, including GEPS and EPS to come in before I make any kind of judgement but I have not yet seen the kind of increase in the NAO anomalies that I want to indicate that confidence is growing in that feature. And we know that is the key feature so that is everything here. And finally... as leads shorten confidence SHOULD be growing. If the anomaly stays the same as leads shorten that is actually a bad sign. Of course the EPS could come out soon with some uber blocking look and the GEPS could concur and then we toss the GEFS. Just saying if the guidance in general keeps only having a pretty weak -NAO signal with lots of divergence as we get closer that is a red flag imo. There have been some runs that speed up the NAO and then lose it right away. In general it has continued to fail to break into the day 10 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 36 minutes ago, frd said: 1993 - this will be the 3 rd time he used it so far this winter. ( along with many others ) Lol. That's definitely his favorite analog to pull out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yea but that is an old run...wait I am sure todays 12z will look like crap its not an old run...it was its last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It can't be that trustworthy if it's jumping around like this, right? Day 10+ is always going to jump around because it's beyond the range of good skill AND the longwave pattern is going through a pretty significant change. Differences in timing and evolution have quite a bit of spread. The bottom line is we really don't have a clear picture in any way shape or form about what things are going to look like in 10 days. It's different when we're already in a stable pattern and models show it continuing. We're facing the opposite of that. I'm not going to comment much on the long range right now. By the time you think you have a handle on it everything changes. Waste of keystrokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Looks like after a warm-up next week were back in the game by next weekend possibly. The long range has been so frustrating this year I'm just focused on next weekend for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 just ignore the GFS and use the FV3. If it wasnt for trump..the FV3 would be up and running right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Nice GFS op run, first a wave for the northern 1/2 and then a wave for the southern 1/2 of the forum. Everyone gets some love through day 11. Seeing a lot of mixed events on the GEFS after the mini torch. Can't drill down that far with the EPS beyond d10 but I'm sure there are plenty there too. If we do get 1-2 mixed events your climo could easily work in your favor compared to cities/burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Seeing a lot of mixed events on the GEFS after the mini torch. Can't drill down that far with the EPS beyond d10 but I'm sure there are plenty there too. If we do get 1-2 mixed events your climo could easily work in your favor compared to cities/burbs. If we get a pattern with waves riding along the boundary with the SE ridge my area would likely win compared to DC. That has lead to some pretty big snowfall periods up here. But it can also fail here too if the SE ridge flexes too much and we end up with a cutter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: If we get a pattern with waves riding along the boundary with the SE ridge my area would likely win compared to DC. That has lead to some pretty big snowfall periods up here. But it can also fail here too if the SE ridge flexes too much and we end up with a cutter pattern. Yea, the upcoming "transition" is impossible to predict at this point. Not like we have seen much skill beyond 10 days this year but it looks more like a mud bog instead of the usual "muddy" picture. Once some sort of clarity emerges I'll dig deeper. Right now the run over run changes we're seeing across the board are basically telling us to not even try to guess at timing/outcomes etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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