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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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Give it a bit of time once the precipitation really develops the dynamic cooling will cool the columns and change the sleet up north to snow maybe even in New York City.

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Just now, SnowFreak2000 said:

Give it a bit of time once the precipitation really develops the dynamic cooling will cool the columns and change the sleet up north to snow maybe even in New York City.

Yea agree but it will be short lived

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Yeah the sleet makes sense but the rain is really odd.  I guess for a short time here the BL might be near 1500-2000ft deep but odds are everyone north of a SI-New Brunswick line is going to flip to all sleet or snow/sleet when heavier echoes move in

 

9D1DE45B-DEC1-4B0E-97B9-4DC4146191C5.png

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4 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said:

rain in brooklyn heights.  Those HRRR projected soundings wrong.

It’s pretty remarkable how much we are torching the mid layers in an event this weak.  This isn’t that strong of a system.  It seems we are oerr torching the mids on almost every event this winter beyond anything I’ve ever seen.  This isn’t a heavily sleet prone area when you look at long term climo

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s pretty remarkable how much we are torching the mid layers in an event this weak.  This isn’t that strong of a system.  It seems we are oerr torching the mids on almost every event this winter beyond anything I’ve ever seen.  This isn’t a heavily sleet prone area when you look at long term climo

The low is tracking pretty close to the coast, we haven't really had a good track for a snow event for NYC Metro all winter  

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the sleet makes sense but the rain is really odd.  I guess for a short time here the BL might be near 1500-2000ft deep but odds are everyone north of a SI-New Brunswick line is going to flip to all sleet or snow/sleet when heavier echoes move in

 

9D1DE45B-DEC1-4B0E-97B9-4DC4146191C5.png

Looks like a snow sounding, I guess it is wrong, with surface wet bulb temps supporting snow there must be a decent warm layor out there.  Just look at the correlation coefficent in Radar Scope and you see the rain snow line about 40 miles north of th city.

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

The low is tracking pretty close to the coast, we haven't really had a good track for a snow event for NYC Metro all winter  

Everything has gone west of us with the -PNA pattern. Some years the coastals lock in like 09-10 where we had Nor'easters on 12/19, 1/30 (south), 2/5 (south), 2/10, 2/26...plus the March rainstorm.

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The low is tracking pretty close to the coast, we haven't really had a good track for a snow event for NYC Metro all winter  

The main low track isn’t the problem as much as we had a weak low track into PA initially.  Had that feature not existed this event probably is all snow here.  The coastal track isn’t exactly excellent here but it’s manageable in the right situation 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The main low track isn’t the problem as much as we had a weak low track into PA initially.  Had that feature not existed this event probably is all snow here.  The coastal track isn’t exactly excellent here but it’s manageable in the right situation 

Yea the low tracking into PA is I believe what's causing the upper levels to warm, if not it'd be more of a rain vs snow scenario and agree the city would probably be able to stay snow given the surface temps are not totally torched 

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1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

As I have explained its not that I hate snow--as I have gotten older I don't like it as much--snow is disruptive and big storms are often dangerous.  This winter has been bereft of snow, one that we have been due for.  You live on the South Shore of Long Island, snow is hard to come by.  

Our climate is changing. We will see more blockbuster seasons for the next few decades before we eventually reach a critical mass and temps are too warm for snow

and I totally blew this one, I’ll admit it. Iight rain uws

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Raining in Long Beach. In Huntington it's probably sleeting there before they turn to rain soon too. Nexxxxt..... winter. Congrats Boston on the jump ahead of NYC they'll have by the end of this (which they probably had anyway due to the lousy Logan measurements). 

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11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Our climate is changing. We will see more blockbuster seasons for the next few decades before we eventually reach a critical mass and temps are too warm for snow

and I totally blew this one, I’ll admit it. Iight rain uws

Well, I don't think we'll be alive when it's completely too warm for snow. The more aggressive climate models as reported by the New York Times showed NYC's climate to be akin to the current climate of the Arkansas/Missouri border by 2080-2100. The less aggressive and lower emissions models showed NYC's climate in the 2080-2100 period being akin to the current climate of DC. Both of those areas still receive SOME snow.

And the climate warming may lead to more disruptions of the polar vortex and a more negative AO, which will limit the warming here at the expense of a rapidly warming Arctic.

But yes, we rate to see significant changes in our lives. We have already seen some: the higher summertime dewpoints, increased variability in winter snowfall, growing frequency of blockbuster storms. It will be sad, especially for us winter lovers, but it's the world we've created.

 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Raining in Long Beach. In Huntington it's probably sleeting there before they turn to rain soon too. Nexxxxt..... winter. Congrats Boston on the jump ahead of NYC they'll have by the end of this (which they probably had anyway due to the lousy Logan measurements). 

They’re not gonna do very well either based on how things are unfolding right now.  They might be lucky if they get 3-4 out of this 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

They’re not gonna do very well either based on how things are unfolding right now.  They might be lucky if they get 3-4 out of this 

The hangback snow looks pretty good there after the low passes through. Maybe it'll be showery stuff but it's the type of system they should bank a few inches on easy. A nice climo reminder. :axe:

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35 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If Wednesday ends up like the NAM is showing with heavy snow halting a little south of the city that may be the final straw in this winter

Where have you seen this gradient before? How about almost every event Jan-Feb 

Seen a lot of winters but never one like this and hope never again

 

1483788631_snku_acc.us_ma(1).thumb.png.57f4b8a1f2742c7e9a281f5f14dde407.png

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Just now, RedSky said:

Where have you seen this gradient before? How about almost every event Jan-Feb 

Seen a lot of winters but never one like this and hope never again

 

The models are destroying the short wave as it crosses PA.  That’s probably not going to happen, or at least not as early as shown.  If I lived in Hartford I might be more concerned right now about Wednesday but I think even if you took the track shown by the 00Z NAM exactly that the short wave wouldn’t go to crap as fast as modeled.  

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Where have you seen this gradient before? How about almost every event Jan-Feb 

Seen a lot of winters but never one like this and hope never again

 

1483788631_snku_acc.us_ma(1).thumb.png.57f4b8a1f2742c7e9a281f5f14dde407.png

Just the ultimate FU, Boston gets its snow tonight, and then confluence kills the Wed event and DC gets slammed again. Not saying that happens, but it would be the cherry on top of this disaster of a "winter". 

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