Wmsptwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, pawatch said: It's kind of frustrating here was the temp this morning and tomorrow rain. Dude we could be under gun for some icing tomorrow...models hinting at very stubborn surface cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Dude we could be under gun for some icing tomorrow...models hinting at very stubborn surface cold. And the FV3 hits you guys with 3 snows in the next 7 days. Dynamic pattern between trailing lows and clippers but something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I did hear this front deal will be very complex and hard to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 And the FV3 hits you guys with 3 snows in the next 7 days. Dynamic pattern between trailing lows and clippers but something to track. The FV3 is so bad. I’m not sure why I keep getting sucked into what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Superstorm said: I think it’s why we have had so many big snowstorms in the past 25 years. And why most of the big storms have been focused on the I-95 That has been the big take away for me regarding the pattern over the past 10-20 years. It sure does seem like I-95 and points east really cash in when we have a KU event. When I was a kid and teenager back in the 70's and 80's, it seemed like more of the big snowstorms were always north and west of I-95. Philly often rained while the Lehigh Valley (where I grew up) and northwest cashed in. The other thing is the frequency of such storms. How many foot+ snowstorms has the DC to NYC corridor gotten in the past, say 15 years, as opposed to times prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, anotherman said: The FV3 is so bad. I’m not sure why I keep getting sucked into what it shows. It's the autistic model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 And after I say CTP didn't seem impressed with frozen precip they put out a WWA for most of this subforum. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1245 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>058-230145- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0008.190123T1200Z-190124T0000Z/ Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill- Including the cities of Coudersport, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Pottsville 1245 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet expected. Total ice accumulations of around one tenth are expected. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The ice will result in difficult travel conditions on untreated roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 do you fellas remember.........................................................January 22-23, 2016 33" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, sauss06 said: do you fellas remember.........................................................January 22-23, 2016 33" Best. Storm. EVER. For me, remember I moved to PA in late 2006 ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: do you fellas remember.........................................................January 22-23, 2016 33" Remember? I'll never forget it. It's not every decade you get a almost 3 foot snowstorm...I was still too young to remember the '96 blizzard that much besides some pictures my parents took. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: do you fellas remember.........................................................January 22-23, 2016 33" 35" for me here. I think I was the winner for that one. NAM had me in the bullseye repeatedly leading up to the event. Great storm. Already 3 years ago. That was also another Saturday storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, sauss06 said: do you fellas remember.........................................................January 22-23, 2016 33" That one didn't work out up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, pawatch said: That one didn't work out up here. Someone could have slipped on that so close call for you guys! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 21 minutes ago, sauss06 said: do you fellas remember.........................................................January 22-23, 2016 33" I got "only" 20" out of that one. I-78 to I-81 and points SOUTHWEST got totally slammed. The three lane section of I-81 in Martinsburg, WV was reduced to one lane in spots because the plows couldn't push the snow any further. Check out my video from Monday morning going down to Weyer's Cave, VA. It starts in Hazleton where they had 12-15" and goes through the section of West Virginia that got over 40". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 32 minutes ago, anotherman said: The FV3 is so bad. I’m not sure why I keep getting sucked into what it shows. Because every model is woefully incorrect longer than a few days out so they are all just as good as the other. Even the Euro though it seems to jump a bit less vs slowly change to where it is no where near where it was a week before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 59 minutes ago, pawatch said: That one didn't work out up here. same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Thinking back we were all pretty good sports, getting a trace while Hburg had like 3 feet of snow lol. We had a few punchy Pete's from this last storm and it was a secs at best where it hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 hours ago, anotherman said: I know this will not be a popular subject, but it may be possible that climate change is making model performance erratic. The oceans are warmer, the circulations are changing. It makes using analogs risky. The players on the field are changing so the outcome of the game will be different. I'm not sure the models can account for everything right now. Analogs are a useful tool for overall pattern recognition when comparing with similar pattern alignments in the past and expecting reasonable similarities and potential with an upcoming pattern. But using analogs is always risky if one expects a current or forecast pattern analogged to a previous one to deliver the same finite result be it a big storm, a cold or warm air mass with the same magnitude/length or affecting the same region, said big storm (if one materializes) taking the same track or having the same strength and effects, and etc. No two patterns are ever truly the same, there's just too many variables that make up any given pattern to consider. This is especially risky when taking a lot of stock into an analog on a big winter, such as 78 which has come up a good bit with analogs for this winter. There's a reason why analogged big hitter winters like 77-78,93-94, 95-96 don't often rematerialize. Because they were truly anomalous winters in their own right. With regards to model performance, computer models have SST data incorporated into them. They have to.. water covers 70% of the earth's surface and water is a much better retainer of heat than land. There's a lot of behind the scenes work always going on (except for certain shut down governments) to update and tweak these computer models and there's a ton of data that gets incorporated into them to initialize a model run. So when your talking operational models making an up to 10-15 day forecast vs climatic changes over years or decades, those aforementioned numerous pattern variables would come into play into erratic performance. Variables I speak of are things such as blocking patterns and their positioning (NAO/PNA), ENSO/SOI state, Stratwarm events, tropical forcing that makes up the MJO, etc. I really haven't noticed any recent model performance to be any more erratic than it typically is, especially at range. They're always erratic getting out past day 7 unless there's an especially strong signal for something. If there's an imminent pattern change in the mid-long range computer models are always all over the place in the transition period. Look what just happened this month. Some were punting January practically before cleaning up the New Years confetti. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I am so tired of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 38 degrees with a DP of 26 here now so what limited ice treat my area had has passed. Snow Pack is going to be down to piles by evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Even up to 30 here at the present time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Ummm...why no flood watches when every model has us getting a 40 degree soaking into a water loaded snow pack? Nam just put down 2 to 4 in 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Jumped to 29.8 here, interest turning from frz rain to flooding, though nws says nothing to see here as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Ummm...why no flood watches when every model has us getting a 40 degree soaking into a water loaded snow pack? Nam just put down 2 to 4 in 33 hours. Good question. Down here I might push 50 degrees at some point before FROPA, and according to the NWS, there is at least .50 to 1.00 inch water equivalent in the snow pack down my way. If this map is correct, 2.00" + the snow melt should give us what would be 2.50" to 3.00" of rain...on frozen ground. You'd think that down this way, at least, that would push smaller streams up toward bankfull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Yeah dude we have well over 1.7" and models have it getting mid to upper 40s with even short term models dealing out 1 to 2 inches of rain.... surprised it hardly gets a mention...advisory is toast it's sunny here at times precip still well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 The river here is impressively ice-covered. I'll try to get some photos today if I can get out when it's not pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 GFS puts down statewide 1 to 2 and 2 to 3 swath over NCPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: Jumped to 29.8 here, interest turning from frz rain to flooding, though nws says nothing to see here as usual. They seem to always want to do that. With 6" of frozen snow on the ground and inches of rain on the way. Next snow threats appears to be 1-28 and 2-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, pawatch said: They seem to always want to do that. With 6" of frozen snow on the ground and inches of rain on the way. It'll be fine...our area never has flooding issues from snowmelt and runoff **sarcasm**. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 This will turn most everything to a pool of water and then a freeze for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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