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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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10 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

root-beer

 

snow almost stopped here now in Harrisburg

 

We're flirting with the northern fringe of the precip shield at the moment, so we seem to start and stop.  Same thing happening to me here.

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5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Both have seemingly been MIA for the past week at least.  Hope all is ok with them.

Daxx has posted several times in the last week....just last night I believe....but have not seen Itstrainingtime in a long time.

 

 

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Less than an inch in round 1 in State College.

Based on recent model trends, I'd go with an area of 4-7 inches extending from the Laurels to north of I-80 and across NEPA with 2-4 inches in the LSV. Like with 11/15 and 1/20, how much snow we get depends on how strong the WAA thump is. I'm not sure I buy such a prolonged period of freezing rain that the NAM is showing but regardless, travel will be quite hazardous tomorrow.  

Great post earlier by @djr5001 showing the comparison between obs and soundings from this morning. Models have a tendency to underestimate the warm air between 850 and 700 mb, so would not surprise me to see an earlier transition from snow as a result. 

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10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

How long until Jm1220 tells us all how screwed we are?

Youre in a great spot once again bud.

 

Sit back an enjoy.  I'm screwed, but I'll count every flake as a win.  

I think by later this week, us snow birds may be chirpin a bit.  Nice window of opp starting to show up.

 

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Tomorrow looks more and more icey than snowy for us the LSV. Boooooooo. I am not sure if we can pull 5" out of this system with the rushing warmth that I didn't think would occur but it's legit apparently. 

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36 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

M3.3”

heavy band just to my south 

For clarification, are we going to keep giving our event(s) total for our measurements?  It looks like that is what you have done here.  Your 3.3" is the total since last night?  Otherwise my board is cleared and I'm ready to start over from zero.

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

For clarification, are we going to keep giving our event(s) total for our measurements?  It looks like that is what you have done here.  Your 3.3" is the total since last night?  Otherwise my board is cleared and I'm ready to start over from zero.

Good question.   Hasn’t stopped snowing here so this truly is one event imo.   My 6 hour board cleared times are 7 and 1 so I’ve got one coming up shortly.   

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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

CTP has upgraded everyone to warnings with the exception of 3 se counties (me)

And the warning runs until 6:00pm tomorrow instead of ending at noon now.  They bumped up the ice to up to 0.2" for the warning counties so it appears they believe the freezing rain is going to last longer now.

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From sunset until at least midnight it's going to be pure snow for everyone.  Should be a fun evening.  Just look at all that juicy, heavy precip rolling along the M/D line getting ready to shift north this afternoon.

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Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

From sunset until at least midnight it's going to be pure snow for everyone.  Should be a fun evening.  Just look at all that juicy, heavy precip rolling along the M/D line getting ready to shift north this afternoon.

Yeah really picking up again.   

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10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Tomorrow looks more and more icey than snowy for us the LSV. Boooooooo. I am not sure if we can pull 5" out of this system with the rushing warmth that I didn't think would occur but it's legit apparently. 

Not so sure we see much in the way of ice with surface temps hanging around 30-32F.  Closer to MAG is where the ice issues are more likely.  Tomorrow's length of day and peak sun angle is equivalent to October 29th combined with the transition to rain with warmth aloft so not sure we have issues other than some crust forming early in the day on where snow has not been cleared.  To me this looks a lot like that storm we had back in January where we hold the transition off just long enough with good rates in the last hour or two before changeover before sunrise that we get into that 4-6" total area before torching to rain during the day.  There is a lot of moisture moving in so with this system and much more than what was available with that January event so with the right dynamics its possible but yea the warmth will win eventually.

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are the temps going to rise tonight at all? or is the warm push only for tomorrow?

 

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4 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Not so sure we see much in the way of ice with surface temps hanging around 30-32F.  Closer to MAG is where the ice issues are more likely.  Tomorrow's length of day and peak sun angle is equivalent to October 29th combined with the transition to rain with warmth aloft so not sure we have issues other than some crust forming early in the day on where snow has not been cleared.  To me this looks a lot like that storm we had back in January where we hold the transition off just long enough with good rates in the last hour or two before changeover before sunrise that we get into that 4-6" total area before torching to rain during the day.  There is a lot of moisture moving in so with this system and much more than what was available with that January event so with the right dynamics its possible but yea the warmth will win eventually.

i can't pull a radar up at work, when do you see us picking up again?

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There are several 3.5"+ obs north of Baltimore where it is trying to changeover but heavier rates appear to keep turning p-type back to mostly snow for now.  @Cashtown_Coop looks to be in a really nice spot at the moment for this afternoon.

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2 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

There are several 3.5"+ obs north of Baltimore where it is trying to changeover but heavier rates appear to keep turning p-type back to mostly snow for now.  @Cashtown_Coop looks to be in a really nice spot at the moment for this afternoon.

Radar looks sweet this way 

1pm board clean 1.5”

3.3” total 

29.7”

mod snow

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13 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i can't pull a radar up at work, when do you see us picking up again?

Based on radar trends I believe we should at least start to see flurries again here in the next hour or so

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3 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Based on radar trends I believe we should at least start to see flurries again here in the next hour or so

thank you!

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4 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Based on radar trends I believe we should at least start to see flurries again here in the next hour or so

Never stopped in Etown, but it went to flurries.  about 20 min ago, it started to pick up slightly.  Likely my lull.

Here's to ever hour of snow/frozen we can hang onto.  I know I'm in trouble, but i can only hope we sleet for some time before we flip.  Pack retention baby.

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