Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

[Voyager]

14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Is it smaller streams/creeks type flooding or poor drainage? (Or both)

Two in my area. Country Club Road, and Lizard Creek Road (PA895) are from creek flooding. Others, I'm not sure about. PA61 up by Sunbury is a full closure, so I suppose that one is creek flooding as well.

[paweather]

6 hours ago, canderson said:

Horst was barking about this upcoming polar vortex this morning on Twitter. It looks - cold!

Cold and suppressed.

[Voyager]

Why does the polar vortex always have to drop into the Eastern US? You never hear of it dropping into the west. If airfare to Phoenix wasn't $700, I'd be heading there this weekend...

[Jns2183]

5 hours ago, canderson said:

@Jns2183 thank you for the data. If you could do a Google Drive doc of HBG snow records that'd be amazing (and since @sauss06 lost his he could use it too).

Here you go

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14yvCLQG-MlYw9YA0kPNUjHq3lIlGYZE8NDuDQ2o1Km0/edit?usp=sharing

 

It has the Date, Month, Year, Winter of, Max Temp, Min Temp, Precipitation, Snowfall, Snow depth of every day since 2/1/1941 that it has snowed at least a trace.  I believe there are around 3060 events.  I pulled the data from http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/, formatted it, and added the (Month, Year, Winter of) formulas in order to make it easier to analyze.   

[MAG5035]

Did some measuring of the glacier pack around the yard and it was a pretty uniform 5.5-6". That's pretty good snowpack retention with all the rain. Then again the station nearby didn't finally crack the 32-33ºF mark until nearly 9am this morning when it briefly spiked to 38ºF and was back below freezing by mid-afternoon. 

41 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Two in my area. Country Club Road, and Lizard Creek Road (PA895) are from creek flooding. Others, I'm not sure about. PA61 up by Sunbury is a full closure, so I suppose that one is creek flooding as well.

I mentioned to wsptwx yesterday about possible small creek and drainage issues but not bigger problems with the larger waterways as interior counties (that make up West Branch Susquehanna basin) probably weren't going to lose significant snowpack. You think it still would have been at least addressed with a flood advisory if not an areal flood warning. Especially with how much you ended up spiking temp wise and as much rainfall as your neck of the woods ended up with. 

[MAG5035]

We look to be transitioning to a more northern branch dominated regime as we have quite a cold pattern looming. The next event to watch appears to be around the beginning/early part of next week. I think it has the possibility to be some kind of snow event potentially with an arctic front passage. GFS takes parent low into the lakes, and despite thicknesses that would be supportive of snow seems to take surface and low level temps too warm and thus present a mixing  or rain potential up front. Euro evolves the system a little differently and would be more of a snow event. Either way both models are currently bringing the house arctic air wise behind this system. 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Did some measuring of the glacier pack around the yard and it was a pretty uniform 5.5-6". That's pretty good snowpack retention with all the rain. Then again the station nearby didn't finally crack the 32-33ºF mark until nearly 9am this morning when it briefly spiked to 38ºF and was back below freezing by mid-afternoon. 

I mentioned to wsptwx yesterday about possible small creek and drainage issues but not bigger problems with the larger waterways as interior counties (that make up West Branch Susquehanna basin) probably weren't going to lose significant snowpack. You think it still would have been at least addressed with a flood advisory if not an areal flood warning. Especially with how much you ended up spiking temp wise and as much rainfall as your neck of the woods ended up with. 

I would have thought that the qpf outputs on most of the models being around 2 inches (I did end at 1.78 inches) plus the snow melt (see my image from yesterday) and I would have thought the Southeastern counties would have had a watch.

[Jns2183]

5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

 

I only see 4 events total in that spreadsheet that would categorize as 15" or greater. One in the 1983-1987 timeframe (Blizzard of 83), 2 in 1993-1997 (Blizzards of 93' and 96'), and of course the big one in 2013-2018 for the 2016 Blizzard. Clearly that's missing the Feb 2003 storm and then Feb 2010 storms as those events must have been split on multiple days. I feel like MDT probably had more than one event of >15" in the 1948-1992 but I don't really know that for sure, I'm not familiar with H-burg snowstorms back that far and the Gov't shutdown has claimed the site with the archived NESIS storm data. I can tell you that noted major snowstorms in 1958 and 1966 may have delivered such. The other site for Millersville snowfalls by decade that was provided on here showed 15+ snowfalls in 1958,1961, and 1979. I know that's not particularly the Harrisburg region but those are at leas a few other storms that might have done that in that time period. Single day snowfall data is probably not the best way to try to find a trend in frequency of storms of bigger size. Although yes the last especially 10 years has had an uptick in big single event snows in the Sus Valley.  It's hard to compare storms or periods of yesteryear to today simply because technology, how connected we are today, and how we're able to monitor and track these things and etc. I often wonder what the narrative might be if we actually had something like a 77-78 type winter, or a hurricane season like 1954 which featured three major hurricanes impacting the eastern seaboard in the same season (including one of the only Cat 4's to ever hit NC). Heck the town I live in had a 15-20inch snowstorm in 1928.. on APRIL 28th. If you look back hard enough you can find plenty of crazy prior to the last 25 years. 

One thing I do notice in those spreadsheets with how they're broken down, is some of the more recent lousy winter periods we've had. 1998-2002 is clearly the worst of the bunch having only 63 measurable snowfalls (discounting the one counting "T", but it's still the least with that). What did we have in that period? The 97-98 super nino winter, which was one of the least snowy in Harrisburg. Followed by 2 Nina winters and then the 01-02 non-winter. The period 1988-1992 was almost as bad. The 90s as a whole outside of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 featured some pretty underwhelming winters. Recent 5 year periods in the 2000s-2010s featured lower totals number of snowfalls until the most recent 5 year period which is back to being more on par with overall higher numbers prior to 1998-2002 period. But 1973-1977 also sticks out for having a low number of total snowfalls. That period, notably, conincides with a very dominant La-Nina ENSO state much as the late 90s (late 98 to early 2001) was.

I went down the rabbit hole and looked at days where is snowed consecutively and where the 2 days total was >12".  I also included some April snow and notes:

 

Begin Date	End Date	Amt	Notes
3/7/1941	3/8/1941	13.80
1/27/1943	1/28/1943	12.80	1/26 - 1/28 total 15.40"
1/15/1945	1/16/1945	21.00
2/20/1947	2/21/1947	13.20
11/6/1953	11/7/1953	15.40
3/3/1960	3/4/1960	10.70	3/3 - 3/22 (9 snows) 22.00"
12/11/1960	12/12/1960	11.00	12/11 - 12/21 (5 snows) 19.00"
1/19/1961	1/20/1961	18.70	1/15 - 1/20 26.20"
2/3/1961	2/4/1961	12.40
12/23/1961	12/24/1961	13.90	12/28 2.40" brought xmas wk total to 16.30"
1/12/1964	1/13/1964	18.10
2/18/1964	2/19/1964	20.50
1/29/1966	1/30/1966	12.20
2/6/1967	2/7/1967	11.90
12/25/1969	12/26/1969	12.90
2/19/1972		13.00
12/16/1973	12/17/1973	12.10
1/19/1978	1/20/1978	13.40	1/13 - 1/20 3 storms 30.40"
2/18/1979	2/19/1979	14.20
1/22/1982	1/23/1982	10.20	1/21 - 1/23 12.10"
4/5/1982	4/6/1982	6.70	April Storm
2/11/1983	2/12/1983	25.00
3/13/1993	3/14/1993	20.40
1/17/1994		14.30
3/2/1994	3/3/1994	12.30
1/8/1996	1/9/1996	22.20	1/2 - 1/9 27.80" 1/2 - 1/12 38.60"
2/15/2003	2/16/2003	13.90
2/5/2010	2/6/2010	18.00
2/9/2010	2/10/2010	15.70	2/3 - 2/10 34.10" 2/2 - 2/10 36.80"
1/22/2016	1/23/2016	30.20
3/13/2017	3/14/2017	17.00
3/20/2018	3/21/2018	14.20

[Jns2183]

Since 2/1//1942 I have 11 storms of >15"

 

Begin Date	End Date	Amt
1/15/1945	1/16/1945	21.00
1/19/1961	1/20/1961	18.70
1/12/1964	1/13/1964	18.10
2/18/1964	2/19/1964	20.50
2/11/1983	2/12/1983	25.00
3/13/1993	3/14/1993	20.40
1/8/1996	1/9/1996	22.20
2/5/2010	2/6/2010	18.00
2/9/2010	2/10/2010	15.70
1/22/2016	1/23/2016	30.20
3/13/2017	3/14/2017	17.00
Decade	Storms >15"
1940	1
1950	0
1960	3
1970	0
1980	1
1990	2
2000	0
2010	4

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

Since 2/1//1942 I have 11 storms of >15"

 

 

Begin Date	End Date	Amt
1/15/1945	1/16/1945	21.00
1/19/1961	1/20/1961	18.70
1/12/1964	1/13/1964	18.10
2/18/1964	2/19/1964	20.50
2/11/1983	2/12/1983	25.00
3/13/1993	3/14/1993	20.40
1/8/1996	1/9/1996	22.20
2/5/2010	2/6/2010	18.00
2/9/2010	2/10/2010	15.70
1/22/2016	1/23/2016	30.20
3/13/2017	3/14/2017	17.00
Decade	Storms >15"
1940	1
1950	0
1960	3
1970	0
1980	1
1990	2
2000	0
2010	4

Great stats & great work on this !

The only thing jumping out to me that may need revised is with the February 2003 PDII storm, Harrisburg had near 20 inches for the combined snow total for the event.

This will be a great reference for all of us!

[Jns2183]

last post of the night.  The 1960's were ridiculous.  Accumulations for 50% above average in the 3"-6" range, almost 100% above average in the 6"-9" range, 100% above average in the 9"-12", and throw in (2) 12"-15" storms for good measure.  They accounted for 316.7" (66% roughly) of there 477.80" in 57 3"-12" storms that averaged roughly 5.5" per storm.  So whomever here was a child in this area in the 60's, you lived like a king.

SUM of Snowfall	Grouped Winter of
Grouped Snowfall	< 1950	1950 - 1959	1960 - 1969	1970 - 1979	1980 - 1989	1990 - 1999	2000 - 2009	2010 - 2018	10 yr Avg	8 yr Avg
0.00 - 3.00	87.2	122.0	134.0	120.5	127.3	113.5	108.2	102.2	120.38	96.31
3.00 - 6.00	58.6	92.8	150.3	111.2	109.5	98.8	70.8	73.5	100.72	80.58
6.00 - 9.00	40.8	41.4	104.3	77.9	33.7	39.8	49.4	34.2	55.46	44.37
9.00 - 12.00	49.6	18.4	62.1	29.4	30.1	10.8	9.5	32.7	31.92	25.54
12.00 - 15.00	12.2		27.1	13.0		14.3	12.6	27.0	13.97	11.18
18.00 - 21.00	19.7					40.1			7.87	6.29
24.00 - 27.00					24.0			26.4	6.63	5.31
Grand Total	268.1	274.6	477.8	352.0	324.6	317.3	250.5	296.0	337.0	269.6
0.00 - 3.00	-9.1	1.6	13.6	0.1	6.9	-6.9	-12.2	5.9
3.00 - 6.00	-22.0	-7.9	49.6	10.5	8.8	-1.9	-29.9	-7.1
6.00 - 9.00	-3.6	-14.1	48.8	22.4	-21.8	-15.7	-6.1	-10.2
9.00 - 12.00	24.1	-13.5	30.2	-2.5	-1.8	-21.1	-22.4	7.2
12.00 - 15.00	1.0	-14.0	13.1	-1.0	-14.0	0.3	-1.4	15.8
18.00 - 21.00	13.4	-7.9	-7.9	-7.9	-7.9	32.2	-7.9	-6.3
24.00 - 27.00	-5.3	-6.6	-6.6	-6.6	17.4	-6.6	-6.6	21.1
Grand Total	-1.5	-62.4	140.8	15.0	-12.4	-19.7	-86.5	26.4

 

COUNTA of Snowfall	Grouped Winter of
Grouped Snowfall	< 1950	1950 - 1959	1960 - 1969	1970 - 1979	1980 - 1989	1990 - 1999	2000 - 2009	2010 - 2018
0.00 - 3.00	105.0	151.0	184.0	146.0	156.0	160.0	115.0	123.0
3.00 - 6.00	15.0	24.0	36.0	28.0	28.0	24.0	18.0	19.0
6.00 - 9.00	7.0	6.0	15.0	11.0	5.0	5.0	7.0	5.0
9.00 - 12.00	5.0	2.0	6.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	3.0
12.00 - 15.00	1.0		2.0	1.0		1.0	1.0	2.0
18.00 - 21.00	1.0					2.0
24.00 - 27.00					1.0			1.0
Grand Total	134.0	183.0	243.0	189.0	193.0	193.0	142.0	153.0

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

We look to be transitioning to a more northern branch dominated regime as we have quite a cold pattern looming. The next event to watch appears to be around the beginning/early part of next week. I think it has the possibility to be some kind of snow event potentially with an arctic front passage. GFS takes parent low into the lakes, and despite thicknesses that would be supportive of snow seems to take surface and low level temps too warm and thus present a mixing  or rain potential up front. Euro evolves the system a little differently and would be more of a snow event. Either way both models are currently bringing the house arctic air wise behind this system. 

Yes, our snow chances should soon improve. The blocking up top looks to be developing with a little time. Also, the MJO looks to be moving with amplitude toward phase 7 & 8 as we go through the first week of February. As you mentioned, with plenty of Artic air in the vicinity, we should be heading towards a more wintry pattern!

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

Since 2/1//1942 I have 11 storms of >15"

 

 

Begin Date	End Date	Amt
1/15/1945	1/16/1945	21.00
1/19/1961	1/20/1961	18.70
1/12/1964	1/13/1964	18.10
2/18/1964	2/19/1964	20.50
2/11/1983	2/12/1983	25.00
3/13/1993	3/14/1993	20.40
1/8/1996	1/9/1996	22.20
2/5/2010	2/6/2010	18.00
2/9/2010	2/10/2010	15.70
1/22/2016	1/23/2016	30.20
3/13/2017	3/14/2017	17.00
Decade	Storms >15"
1940	1
1950	0
1960	3
1970	0
1980	1
1990	2
2000	0
2010	4

This is quite the rabbit hole haha. I actually caught another one.. 11/6-7, 1953 totaled 15.4". Also the 2003 blizzard had 18" on Feb 16-17th (out of a 20.3 4 day total). So that would put one in the 1950 and 2000 decade. I'm really intrigued about 1958, that was a really snowy winter especially in Feb-Mar. I found this out of a Lancaster Online article from right before the March 2017 storm which had a top ten list of snowfalls in Lancaster, and actually Horst was the source of the information. On the list at #6 was Feb 15-16th, 1958 at 20". The data had about 8" at MDT for that. But they also had another storm honorable mentioned.

https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/biggest-snowstorms-in-lancaster-county-history/article_582b86b6-014a-57ed-aac7-25a3ae0748e8.html

Quote

Honorable mention: The storm that hit on March 18-21, 1958 had arguably the biggest impact of any storm ever to hit the Lancaster area. While only 13" of heavy wet snow accumulated in Lancaster city, 2 to 3 feet of snow fell across the higher terrain of northern and eastern Lancaster county. About 30" fell in the Ephrata/Adamstown area and an astounding 50" was measured at the Morgantown exchange of the PA Turnpike. Wide spread power outages took many days to restore and the PA Turnpike was closed for a number of days.

So MDT reported about a 9 inch total from those few days while that apparently was going on in Lancaster County. That's an insane gradient if that was all that Harrisburg had out of that. 

[Jns2183]

That March 18-21, 1958 storm was extremely elevation dependent, although not much elevation.  We are talking just a couple to few hundred feet.  Adamstown in Northeastern Lancaster county is 568', Morgantown, PA is 600', Lancaster is 368', Harrisburg is 322', Philly is 39'.  I think Philly got like 2 inches of snow and inches of inches of rain.  

[Jns2183]

I also believe the Low was cut-off and spinning and probably had a deformation band that was stationary basically.  Those areas with insane totals probably fell within the heaviest part of the band and it helped with cooling.  Probably lots of melting going on in areas with that storm. 

[Jns2183]

Here are the 1960's more indepth

	Grouped Snowfall
	0.00 - 3.00		3.00 - 6.00		6.00 - 9.00		9.00 - 12.00		12.00 - 15.00		Grand Total
Winter of	Count	Sum	Count	Sum	Count	Sum	Count	Sum	Count	Sum	Count	Sum
1960	24	12.20	5	18.20			1	10.50			30	40.90
1961	22	16.70	4	18.20	5	33.30			1	13.10	32	81.30
1962	20	15.90	4	17.20	1	8.80	1	9.70			26	51.60
1963	22	18.60	6	25.90	1	6.00					29	50.50
1964	17	11.50	3	11.10	1	7.50	3	30.60	1	14.00	25	74.70
1965	14	11.10	3	13.10	1	7.60					18	31.80
1966	8	10.60	3	10.80	3	21.20					14	42.60
1967	26	16.00	3	14.40	1	6.70	1	11.30			31	48.40
1968	12	8.90	2	8.90	2	13.20					16	31.00
1969	19	12.50	3	12.50							22	25.00
Grand Total	184	134.00	36	150.30	15	104.30	6	62.10	2	27.10	243	477.80

[Jns2183]

I think there was at least a trace of snow at KMDT continuously from 12/11/1960 through 3/1/1961 

[MAG5035]

There continues to be some pretty significant differences in evolution between the GFS and Euro for the next event slated for the early part of next week. The European drops in and phases a robust shortwave on a nice negatively tilted 500mb trough, resulting in coastal development and a swath of moderate snows across most of central PA. GFS is faster, weaker and further north with shortwave and just simply drops in the PV and it's sub 500dm 500mb heights into the northeastern US. Euro actually didn't really drop in the PV with tonights run, keeping it in Canada (still plenty cold). Canadian similar or maybe even more robust than the Euro. 

[MAG5035]

Have had some upslope snows erupt in western/central PA in the overnight hours. Have about a half inch of new snow with it still snowing. 

[2001kx]

4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

There continues to be some pretty significant differences in evolution between the GFS and Euro for the next event slated for the early part of next week. The European drops in and phases a robust shortwave on a nice negatively tilted 500mb trough, resulting in coastal development and a swath of moderate snows across most of central PA. GFS is faster, weaker and further north with shortwave and just simply drops in the PV and it's sub 500dm 500mb heights into the northeastern US. Euro actually didn't really drop in the PV with tonights run, keeping it in Canada (still plenty cold). Canadian similar or maybe even more robust than the Euro. 

Still waiting on my 12"+ the euro promised me over the weekend  

[Bubbler86]

10 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Since 2/1//1942 I have 11 storms of >15"

 

 

Begin Date	End Date	Amt
1/15/1945	1/16/1945	21.00
1/19/1961	1/20/1961	18.70
1/12/1964	1/13/1964	18.10
2/18/1964	2/19/1964	20.50
2/11/1983	2/12/1983	25.00
3/13/1993	3/14/1993	20.40
1/8/1996	1/9/1996	22.20
2/5/2010	2/6/2010	18.00
2/9/2010	2/10/2010	15.70
1/22/2016	1/23/2016	30.20
3/13/2017	3/14/2017	17.00
Decade	Storms >15"
1940	1
1950	0
1960	3
1970	0
1980	1
1990	2
2000	0
2010	4

Between my own issue of seeing the sheet wrong and the "did they use snowboards" question I won't put too much emphasis into my initial thought that the last decade or two has seen bigger storms all time but it still backs up the thought that those of us who grew up in the 70's and 80's simply did not get the "benefit" of the larger storms.  Thanks very much for all this work.  It makes a great reference.  

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Still waiting on my 12"+ the euro promised me over the weekend  

And the 20" to 30" the Euro progged for us a bit earlier...same storm/time period.  

[pawatch]

7 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

There continues to be some pretty significant differences in evolution between the GFS and Euro for the next event slated for the early part of next week. The European drops in and phases a robust shortwave on a nice negatively tilted 500mb trough, resulting in coastal development and a swath of moderate snows across most of central PA. GFS is faster, weaker and further north with shortwave and just simply drops in the PV and it's sub 500dm 500mb heights into the northeastern US. Euro actually didn't really drop in the PV with tonights run, keeping it in Canada (still plenty cold). Canadian similar or maybe even more robust than the Euro. 

Currently the models are split as to where the main surface
low will track. Seems to be the theme this winter.

Thanks for Your thoughts Mag.

[pasnownut]

TGIF.  Here's to a start of better times.

ICON might want to jump on da snow train.....stay tuned...

[Bubbler86]

Sn+ squall here all of a sudden.  Ground and roads are getting covered.  Surprise. 

[Jns2183]

Capital City Airport started taking temperature and precipitation daily observations again on 7/30/2000.  The chart below highlights the yearly and month differences in Precipitation between Capital City Airport and KMDT, a mere 5 miles apart, if that.  I excluded dates where any observations where missing.  Highlighted are the cells where KCXY has a positive difference.

 

SUM of Difference	Month
Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Grand Total
2000							0.09	-1.37	-2.06	0.37	-0.75	-0.93	-4.65
2001	-0.31	-0.22	-0.41	0.33	0.53	0.68	-0.36	-1.18	0.55	-0.13	-0.17	0.05	-0.64
2002	-0.21	0.03	-0.03	-0.62	-0.46	0.40	0.25	-0.70	0.30	-0.03	-0.37	-0.42	-1.86
2003	-0.24	0.13	-0.53	0.04	-0.06	-1.06	-0.82	-0.98	-0.05	-0.25	0.05	-0.16	-3.93
2004	-0.21	0.26	-0.30	0.49	-0.57	-0.23	0.58	-1.09	-0.20	-0.12	0.11	-0.05	-1.33
2005	-0.39	-0.24	-0.13	-0.41	-0.14	0.26	-1.99	-0.37	0.57	-0.88	-0.02	0.45	-3.29
2006	0.73	-0.11	0.01	0.05	0.45	-0.64	-0.45	-0.02	0.12	-0.61	-0.71	-0.06	-1.24
2007	-0.30	-0.70	-1.51	-0.98	-0.21	-1.46	-0.24	-0.42	-2.12	-1.65	-1.13	-1.61	-12.33
2008	-0.59	-2.02	-1.90	-1.17	-2.11	0.00	0.35	0.30	-3.90	0.54	-0.50	0.23	-10.77
2009	-0.21	-0.17	-0.17	0.68	-1.77	-1.44	0.62	0.55	-0.45	-0.48	-0.12	-0.36	-3.32
2010	0.21	-0.47	-0.13	0.25	0.16	0.12	-0.58	2.62	1.30	-0.01	0.37	-0.28	3.56
2011	-0.35	-0.43	0.03	1.09	-0.66	-2.41	0.66	-0.67	-9.63	0.79	-0.25	-0.20	-12.03
2012	-0.22	-0.10	-0.15	0.26	0.91	-0.91	0.18	0.02	-1.17	-0.28	-0.06	-0.19	-1.71
2013	-0.23	-0.01	-0.27	0.07	0.37	0.61	-2.25	-0.26	0.23	0.61	-0.08	-0.53	-1.74
2014	-0.68	-0.40	0.45	-0.53	-0.59	1.63	0.49	-1.01	0.22	-0.21	-0.32	-0.04	-0.99
2015	-1.00	-0.77	-0.94	1.11	-1.02	3.13	-0.04	0.57	-3.79	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-3.09
2016	-2.83	-1.08	0.04	-0.43	0.01	-0.86	-1.05	-1.22	-1.28	0.12	-0.48	-0.28	-9.34
2017	-0.49	-1.10	-1.69	-0.23	-0.53	-0.94	-4.17	0.57	-0.36	0.09	-0.20	0.01	-9.04
2018	-1.31	-0.59	-0.54	-0.46	-1.63	0.20	-1.19	-0.53	1.59	0.06	-0.08	-0.50	-4.98
2019	-0.26												-0.26
Grand Total	-8.89	-7.99	-8.17	-0.46	-7.32	-2.92	-9.92	-5.19	-20.13	-2.38	-4.58	-5.03	-82.98
Average	-0.48	-0.44	-0.45	-0.03	-0.41	-0.16	-0.56	-0.21	-1.00	-0.15	-0.21	-0.23	-4.34

[pawatch]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

TGIF.  Here's to a start of better times.

ICON might want to jump on da snow train.....stay tuned...

GFS none to exciting more of a mix than snow. 

[Wmsptwx]

Mehhhhhh not looking like much of anything.

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Mehhhhhh not looking like much of anything.

FV3 has the follow up wave.  I guess we all can look for what solution we want and call it whatever we want.

Enjoy what's left of your foot of snow.  

I'll go slide around on the frozen puddle in my brown backyard.

 

 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

Capital City Airport started taking temperature and precipitation daily observations again on 7/30/2000.  The chart below highlights the yearly and month differences in Precipitation between Capital City Airport and KMDT, a mere 5 miles apart, if that.  I excluded dates where any observations where missing.  Highlighted are the cells where KCXY has a positive difference.

 

 

SUM of Difference	Month
Year	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Grand Total
2000							0.09	-1.37	-2.06	0.37	-0.75	-0.93	-4.65
2001	-0.31	-0.22	-0.41	0.33	0.53	0.68	-0.36	-1.18	0.55	-0.13	-0.17	0.05	-0.64
2002	-0.21	0.03	-0.03	-0.62	-0.46	0.40	0.25	-0.70	0.30	-0.03	-0.37	-0.42	-1.86
2003	-0.24	0.13	-0.53	0.04	-0.06	-1.06	-0.82	-0.98	-0.05	-0.25	0.05	-0.16	-3.93
2004	-0.21	0.26	-0.30	0.49	-0.57	-0.23	0.58	-1.09	-0.20	-0.12	0.11	-0.05	-1.33
2005	-0.39	-0.24	-0.13	-0.41	-0.14	0.26	-1.99	-0.37	0.57	-0.88	-0.02	0.45	-3.29
2006	0.73	-0.11	0.01	0.05	0.45	-0.64	-0.45	-0.02	0.12	-0.61	-0.71	-0.06	-1.24
2007	-0.30	-0.70	-1.51	-0.98	-0.21	-1.46	-0.24	-0.42	-2.12	-1.65	-1.13	-1.61	-12.33
2008	-0.59	-2.02	-1.90	-1.17	-2.11	0.00	0.35	0.30	-3.90	0.54	-0.50	0.23	-10.77
2009	-0.21	-0.17	-0.17	0.68	-1.77	-1.44	0.62	0.55	-0.45	-0.48	-0.12	-0.36	-3.32
2010	0.21	-0.47	-0.13	0.25	0.16	0.12	-0.58	2.62	1.30	-0.01	0.37	-0.28	3.56
2011	-0.35	-0.43	0.03	1.09	-0.66	-2.41	0.66	-0.67	-9.63	0.79	-0.25	-0.20	-12.03
2012	-0.22	-0.10	-0.15	0.26	0.91	-0.91	0.18	0.02	-1.17	-0.28	-0.06	-0.19	-1.71
2013	-0.23	-0.01	-0.27	0.07	0.37	0.61	-2.25	-0.26	0.23	0.61	-0.08	-0.53	-1.74
2014	-0.68	-0.40	0.45	-0.53	-0.59	1.63	0.49	-1.01	0.22	-0.21	-0.32	-0.04	-0.99
2015	-1.00	-0.77	-0.94	1.11	-1.02	3.13	-0.04	0.57	-3.79	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-3.09
2016	-2.83	-1.08	0.04	-0.43	0.01	-0.86	-1.05	-1.22	-1.28	0.12	-0.48	-0.28	-9.34
2017	-0.49	-1.10	-1.69	-0.23	-0.53	-0.94	-4.17	0.57	-0.36	0.09	-0.20	0.01	-9.04
2018	-1.31	-0.59	-0.54	-0.46	-1.63	0.20	-1.19	-0.53	1.59	0.06	-0.08	-0.50	-4.98
2019	-0.26												-0.26
Grand Total	-8.89	-7.99	-8.17	-0.46	-7.32	-2.92	-9.92	-5.19	-20.13	-2.38	-4.58	-5.03	-82.98
Average	-0.48	-0.44	-0.45	-0.03	-0.41	-0.16	-0.56	-0.21	-1.00	-0.15	-0.21	-0.23	-4.34

5 years of double digit (or close to it) differences seems like a lot but summer differences should probably be expected with the less stratiform nature of thunderstorms.