OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Is this the problem? Using GFS here, but at 850 winds are already either west or south west, and this is at 18Z Sat. Wouldn't we need a little more of a more northerly component, at least up in northern New England, to prevent the warmup? I honestly don't have the skill set to understand if what is depicted (it might not even be the right map to illustrate this) either a cause or an effect as to why the models keep churning out more warmth than expected. But it seems that arctic high is more strung out west to east in terms of influence on the models, and that's why that low is allowed to barrel farther north than what we would normally expect. I'll be honest I agree that things "just don't look right" compared to what we would normally see but I couldn't tell you why, lol. You don't need northerly components at 850 to hold the cold. You need easterly components below the tops of the mountains. But models can struggle at times with the depth of the cold air. If it's deeper than modeled, sometimes that modeled +5C ends up closer to 1C and it's sleet rather than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Is there a model we are not tossing lol ita clear as daylight it’s wagons north on ML temps and surface appear to be tighter unless things shift back manana . Unless this is a case of meso against global but I don’t see that gonna be a tight gradient somewhere between route 2 and MHT it appears w snow totals , unless there are more tickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Ukie goes right thru Central CT. All of these surface tracks are garbage..every one tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is there a model we are not tossing lol In the low levels, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 FWIW, the entire Ohio Valley is verifying about 2-4C cooler at 850 mb than the GFS and NAM. So the entire leading edge of the WAA models are struggling with. As usual, the 12z Euro is actually performing better than the 00z Americans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Ukie goes right thru Central CT. After all those runs being the furthest east model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 All good in my hood. 00z GFS and GEM still both give me 10", then a ton of sleet. I'm doing final tomorrow at the gtg, but thinking of switching from 8-14" to 8-12".Have a good time with everyone, I’m sure some of you guys will be there in time for the Euro, I’ll have to try to get down for one of these, But with this storm coming, Wasn’t going to make the 2.5 hr trek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: You don't need northerly components at 850 to hold the cold. You need easterly components below the tops of the mountains. But models can struggle at times with the depth of the cold air. If it's deeper than modeled, sometimes that modeled +5C ends up closer to 1C and it's sleet rather than freezing rain. Ahh, that makes sense. Thanks for that explanation. Doesn't look like we're getting that easterly component needed either, at least on the GFS as modeled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: FWIW, the entire Ohio Valley is verifying about 2-4C cooler at 850 mb than the GFS and NAM. So the entire leading edge of the WAA models are struggling with. As usual, the 12z Euro is actually performing better than the 00z Americans. Did the Euro correct that height error you references last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 After all those runs being the furthest east model.Where are the posters from the NYC threads to come tell us how it schooled the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Temp up 2 degrees in last hour, was hoping for white more than wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Harvey dropped Boston from 6-12" to 2-4" but he has 4-8" pretty close like say where I am or at least to Arlington. Also an Arlington native here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Ahh, that makes sense. Thanks for that explanation. Doesn't look like we're getting that easterly component needed either, at least on the GFS as modeled... Plenty of easterly wind at 925 though, which will be blocked by the terrain and help lock in cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I posted this Thursday morning on Memebook. Looks like a bust out on the Cape. Ranges are probably 1" too high everywhere else. Not a fan of these slop storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looks to me models are taking this E/ENE across S coast and over say Tiverton to Plymouth in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 UKMET actually skirts the NE coast and emerges at Cape Cod bay. Thats a helluva front end thump in SNE though. Dead body found next to chicken coop, self inflicted, mouth stuffed with chicken pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Did the Euro correct that height error you references last night? I mean it was an error in that it was underforecasting heights, but it's not like the model was flat out wrong, if you get what I'm trying to say. Basically the 12z ensemble sensitivity patterns were a speed difference (about 50% of the variance) and a track difference (north shift 30% of the variance). To shift the track north the EPS members with lower heights across the ridging in western North America were the pattern to look for. All modeling was too low on heights out west (hence why models were farther north). So this could argue for the messenger SE shift in later "go time" runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NCEP featured a similar pattern. The driver of the uncertainty right now seems to be the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: UKMET actually skirts the NE coast and emerges at Cape Cod bay. Thats a helluva front end thump in SNE though. Dead body found next to chicken coop, self inflicted, mouth stuffed with chicken pellets. That is a CRAZY subby zone again modeled from N Essex county to east of concord over to Rochester NH. 3’rd or 4’th model now to show that subsidence area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This vaguely reminds me of an event last year (March 20 2018? that could be totally wrong) in which GFS insisted on warmer/minimal impact in the 48 hours leading up, contrary to Euro/RGEM, and GFS ended up being correct. And Harvey also back-pedaled bigtime. The synoptics may be totally different, but I have a Memento-tattoo that GFS can rarely pull a coop. My 6-12 call for Boston area from Wednesday may burn badly. I'm still skeptical a surface low plows into CT/MA. But GFS/RGEM show it, and others are trending that way. Why could this be occurring? If you start at hour 0 of tonights 0z GFS, and then scroll back for the equivalent Sat 0z timepoint in previous runs, it looks like the confluence / SSS over Quebec is not pressing down as much in more recent runs... in other words, the prior runs may have over-estimated the confluence? We'll see, but obviously a terrible 0z suite so far tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That is a CRAZY subby zone again modeled from N Essex county to east of concord over to Rochester NH. 3’rd or 4’th model now to show that subsidence area UK met hammers Eastern areas pretty good on the backside. Something I think has been on and off with modeling. 5h collapse of heights with a CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: UK met hammers Eastern areas pretty good on the backside. Something I think has been on and off with modeling. 5h collapse of heights with a CCB? Meh the back side looks like 2 hrs /2.5 hrs and maybe .25 of precip at most for Bos / N shore . Unless you can find me something more impressive , I see more on cape w more QPF from 1 to 7pm but backside may not reach them to 3 or so . I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Meh the back side looks like 2 hrs and maybe .25 or precip at most in sne . Unless you can find me something more impressive UKMET was my reference and prior runs of every model at one point, just something that could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: That is a CRAZY subby zone again modeled from N Essex county to east of concord over to Rochester NH. 3’rd or 4’th model now to show that subsidence area The UKMET alone has been showing that for several runs now... in the same exact spot. It's kind of odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: The UKMET alone has been showing that for several runs now... in the same exact spot. It's kind of odd. It probably has something to do with the phase up in ME, as everything consolidates up there. Don't really care..all of my snow is in the initial push, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That area of Precip in New Hampshire is between 2 best areas of forcing one of to nw one to se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just like the one in indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: That area of Precip in New Hampshire is between 2 best areas of forcing one of to nw one to se That, too....yea...low level stuff to the east, and mid levels nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 km nam sets up coastal front from Kingston NH to Salem NH to about Tyngsboro at midnite -1 A.M. separates teens and temps around 30 pretty deep fetch of ENE winds to near 495 after midnite on nammy btv wrf is not as bullish on l.l warmth but 0z isn’t out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 3 km nam sets up coastal front from Kingston NH to Salem NH to about Tyngsboro at midnite -1 A.M. separates teens and temps around 30 pretty deep fetch of ENE winds to near 495 after midnite on nammy btv wrf is not as bullish on l.l warmth but 0z isn’t out Subsidence would have to be decently north of that cf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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