powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Man the 6z NAM and RGEM couldn't be more different lol. Model battle is fascinating. The RGEM ticked north again from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, it's an insane gradient. There is about a 10-12C difference at 850mb between BOS and GHG The ingredient is over 28C between 100 miles of distance on the NAM at 6z run 850mb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM looks a little more amped.. maybe a hair north this run but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I need to see 12z guidance before going all in on a foot plus for BOS just yet But you're a-ok with 10" at MVY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: But you're a-ok with 10" at MVY It is possible, but I think the south trend remains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Man the 6z NAM and RGEM couldn't be more different lol. Model battle is fascinating. The RGEM ticked north again from 00z. Ain't nobody gonna talk about the RGEM in SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow, I just scrolled through the models. You would think this storm is 4 days out with the range of solutions presented. Going to be interesting to see how it unfolds. My gut says 4-8" for Hartford area before a sleetfest. Still gonna fill up my gas containers for the generator in case, though. Eager for Ryan to weigh in on the CT valley area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'm hoping the 6Z models are as far north as this is going to get. Hope they start to back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 42 minutes ago, Snugharbor said: Some people dont believe me but I had literally 1 snow day going to school in Providence from grade 7 to graduating HS (87-93). Some of that might have been differing attitudes by school admin folks, and less litigation threat. From when our older child entered kindergarten in 1977, thru 1985 when we moved south, he lost 1.5 days total to weather - in Fort Kent, where we had a 130"/year average snowfall. GYX 90/50/10% snowfall tool upped by 3-4" compared to yesterday afternoon, with everybody's "most likely" now at 17 or 18. Works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: NAM looks a little more amped.. maybe a hair north this run but we will see I don't know where you are getting that idea, it looks weaker and further south honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The southern low is the one to watch, becomes dominant over MS Valley in 24 hours and tracks to the Delmarva Peninsula and then off the ACK area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't know where you are getting that idea, it looks weaker and further south honestly. it's going to be slightly north based on what I see.. that does not mean that thermals won't improve further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said: Wow, I just scrolled through the models. You would think this storm is 4 days out with the range of solutions presented. Going to be interesting to see how it unfolds. My gut says 4-8" for Hartford area before a sleetfest. Still gonna fill up my gas containers for the generator in case, though. Eager for Ryan to weigh in on the CT valley area. That’s sort of what I’m thinking now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: it's going to be slightly north based on what I see.. that does not mean that thermals won't improve further Remember it is the southern low we need to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We will see which models will be kept and tossed at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM looks like its going to be a little north of its 6Z but hopefully wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Remember it is the southern low we need to watch. yes, i know .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: We will see which models will be kept and tossed at 12z today. It's interesting that the GFS/NAM are being hugged and he RGEM/EC have been tossed. Not saying I agree or disagree, but it is definitely interesting. My gut is we end up somewhere in the middle of the EC and NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Greg said: NAM going to be a little north of its 6Z. make sure your looking at the correct low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM is more amped and slightly north at the surface so far this run. But I'm not sure it's going to be much worse of a solution. Heights look fine over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I wonder if it just trucks more east/northeast than due northest due to the very cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nobody should be hugging..I guess for me, I like the sleet penetration north, just not sure of a track like the euro and gfs have into SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It's interesting that the GFS/NAM are being hugged and he RGEM/EC have been tossed. Not saying I agree or disagree, but it is definitely interesting. My gut is we end up somewhere in the middle of the EC and NCEP. EC is way too warm at the surface now. Tossed. Prob will be closer with the midelvels...though I'm still thinking a slight tick colder than what it shows now. NAM is prob too cold aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Greg said: I wonder if it just trucks more east/northeast than due northest due to the very cold air mass. NAM will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nobody should be hugging..I guess for me, I like the sleet penetration north, just not sure of a track like the euro and gfs have into SE MA. I like ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: It's interesting that the GFS/NAM are being hugged and he RGEM/EC have been tossed. Not saying I agree or disagree, but it is definitely interesting. My gut is we end up somewhere in the middle of the EC and NCEP. Reading earlier by some that have always said to toss the GFS and now there making room in the bed for it, I would never outright toss the Euro, Just blend it with the NCEP guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM is much faster than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EC is way too warm at the surface now. Tossed. Prob will be closer with the midelvels...though I'm still thinking a slight tick colder than what it shows now. NAM is prob too cold aloft. Yeah I'm referring to mid-levels. I expect the sfc to overperform cold as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EC is way too warm at the surface now. Tossed. Prob will be closer with the midelvels...though I'm still thinking a slight tick colder than what it shows now. NAM is prob too cold aloft. Agreed. Blend it as usual. The EC has been Steady Eddy for days though for the most part. It's EPS has been like The Rock for 4 days now. Just a fascinating near-term battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Coastal moisture transport and potential coastal storm development is beginning to take shape on the 12z NAM at hour 24, need to watch this enhance the moisture in take from the Atlantic Ocean combine with the GOM moisture. Should enhance snowfall totals over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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