Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He is terrified of sleet I think....he's getting some sleet so he should just accept it. He will get plenty of snow before that though,. Especially where he lives. Look at it from my perspective. This is going be be a classic 80s shitshow here with everything except the kitchen sink thrown in. Won't see me complaining about where the rain/sleet/snow line sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: He made one of the more uneducated posts I have seen in a while and thats saying something , dismissal of 1040 high lol geezus Pedestrian 53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Predict a 50/50 chance the Euro comes in perfect for snow ... how's that for clearing things up... And if goes the wrong way, I'll go 75% head for the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: This is not how this works I’m honestly surprised someone hasn’t encouraged him to post less, like days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, Greg said: I have the toaster and warm bath ready. Want to trade places? I will gladly take your snow followed by a little sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: He has no idea what he is looking at so he is concerned. He posts impulsive dribble anytime a model run that he perceives as being unsavory comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I wouldn't be shocked if the sleet line tickled MHT. We all have to accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The board should just stop posting for the next 30 minutes or so. Wait till ECMWF is out to 84 hours then open it back up for posting. The head fakes should be great with people losing their sh*t with every 15 mile shift in the southern plains and Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: The fact that you're 38/35 right now doesn't mean much when it starts TOMORROW night. You barely sniff 30F tomorrow for the high. I live 7mi from the Canal. The geography of this general area doesnt support sleet or freezing rain. The track of this system will only support a short period of snow. I dont see any guidance suggesting this system has a chance of staying east of the canal. It is a broad area of LP, almost an open wave, and positive tilt trough. There wont be a tight defined center. This system will like pass directly over me. I will experience a temp spike. I will prob be in the 40s and Scott will be sitting at heavy snow at 31 degrees. Past swfe have cause temp spike to 50-54 for my geographical area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 This looks the same as it has for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It doesn't look that different through 30 hours...it is maybe a hair south of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: The board should just stop posting for the next 30 minutes or so. Wait till ECMWF is out to 84 hours then open it back up for posting. The head fakes should be great with people losing their sh*t with every 15 mile shift in the southern plains and Ohio Valley. There are some that should not try to do analysis because it become very confusing for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Where did the term "weenie" come from? Ginxy's scrolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This looks the same as it has for several days. Agreed 100%. Expect colder low levels than modeled and it's been the same forecast for 5 days. But those 20 mile wobbles matter...but leave that for the HRRR time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro so far look pretty similar to 6Z, maybe slightly south.. or noise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He posts impulsive dribble anytime a model run that he perceives as being unsavory comes out. But I'm the douche for calling him out the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: There are some that should not try to do analysis because it become very confusing for some. There are some who should just a tape the name tag "greg" to their forehead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Not expecting the Euro to make any big swing anyways, Its not its make up, But a tic or two either way, Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Agreed 100%. Expect colder low levels than modeled and it's been the same forecast for 5 days. But those 20 mile wobbles matter...but leave that for the HRRR time. Because the biggest transition zone is in SNE, the wobbles are perceived to be much larger than they actually are....so it creates a lot of hand wringing over the model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: But I'm the douche for calling him out the other day. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 almost identical at 39 to 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Not expecting the Euro to make any big swing anyways, Its not its make up, But a tic or two either way, Yes It hasn't moved more than like 30 miles in 5 days. Doubt it would make a 50 mile jump now but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I see no changes this run so far from 06z on the 12z Euro, Maybe noise at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ginxy's scrolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Huh? I said something unsavory to him the other day and he got mad at me and said he didn't like being undermined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I see no changes this run so far from 06z on the 12z Euro. maybe just the distribution of the QPF, looks a bit wetter for eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah it's basically the same. SLP might slip east just a shade quicker than 06z edit: and yeah, it looks juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Our overall gestalt independent of models: this is an impressive High, the arctic air is fresh, and conversely this is not a phased super charged negatively tilted system charging in. I would anticipate a scoot east more than a GFS-esque track over Boston. I actually thought UK, which has a scoot east, was still decent for SNE. That's just short of hate speech. GYX folks still cringe at what they call the VD massacre of 2015, when their blizz-warned 12-18 (right up thru first flakes) verified at 1-2 for all but the SE part of their CWA. Meanwhile, DE Maine folks got their 20-25', pushing Machias' pack depth (at 20' asl) to 74". Despite the inevitable model wiggles, they've been too consistent for me to have much wide-right worry for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah no warmer luckily. Good burst of snow to begin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: maybe just the distribution of the QPF, looks a bit wetter for eastern areas And that what i had mentioned earlier this mourning would be what we may see, A fluctuation in the qpf field and how it gets distributed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Steady Eddy. Thats impressive consistency for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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