OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: They say they use some "inhouse blend" of various models with "special" algorithms to come up with their forecasts and its more "accurate" than any weather model (notice all the quotes I used lol). It's stuff like this that makes me think the NWS shouldn't let corporations like TWC and Accuweather use their products. It should only be for nonprofit use by individuals and if for profit corporations want to use it they should have to pay a very hefty fee. Same goes for satellite and radar data. Their temp forecasts are actually quite accurate, but that snowfall forecast was just so far on the extreme that the only thing it was based off of was QPF and high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 06Z RGEM also appears to have come south again but of course as was pointed out here early tonight it was so far north at 48-54 it pretty much had to come south Do you think the storm will clear fast enough to see the total phase of the lunar eclipse (totality begins around 11:41 pm Sunday night and lasts for about an hour). Latest forecasts on TV were saying the storm will clear out faster than earlier expected and our region should be out of any precip by early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Their temp forecasts are actually quite accurate, but that snowfall forecast was just so far on the extreme that the only thing it was based off of was QPF and high ratios. I was surprised with the prediction of 36" of snow just south of Manchester, NH and they said there will be a 30 inch difference in snowfall across 30 miles or so (they were forecasting 6 inches in Boston and 36 inches just south of Manchester.) They even made the ridiculous joke that it could be snowing in someone's back yard while it's raining in their front yard lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS a little warmer it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Yankees29 said: Lumping TWC with other private forecasters ignores the fact that TWC is a hype machine because they sell advertising. And, btw, the private corporations do pay a hefty fee; taxes. I just meant the big corporation private forecasters like TWC and Accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Yankees29 said: Lumping TWC with other private forecasters ignores the fact that TWC is a hype machine because they sell advertising. And, btw, the private corporations do pay a hefty fee; taxes. Meh, the average cost per person is $3 a year. I could find worse uses for the money. You can gripe about things government spends tax dollars on, but honestly weather is not one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro / EPS still so warm aloft up to NH. Everything does show a flip back to snow Sunday afternoon/ night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icestorm Where exactly? It just looks sleety with so much low level cold. Even the GFS that loves to be warm in the boundary layer is cold enough for sleet at BDL. There will be ice, but unless things change significantly I don't see a widespread damaging ice signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Where exactly? It just looks sleety with so much low level cold. Even the GFS that loves to be warm in the boundary layer is cold enough for sleet at BDL. There will be ice, but unless things change significantly I don't see a widespread damaging ice signal. Who knows where . I just meant a lot of sleet and zr for a whole bunch of people. Sleet is also an icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who knows where . I just meant a lot of sleet and zr for a whole bunch of people. Sleet is also an icestorm Seems you're really stretching your definition of damage now. I think right now the best chances for higher ice totals will be where Will was talking about yesterday. Near the coast could have the best combo of staying below freezing but near the warmth aloft. Forecast soundings from the NAM near HVN and GON show much more of an ice look, and the NAM is actually decent with low level thermal profiles. GFS has them flipping to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Seems you're really stretching your definition of damage now. I think right now the best chances for higher ice totals will be where Will was talking about yesterday. Near the coast could have the best combo of staying below freezing but near the warmth aloft. Forecast soundings from the NAM near HVN and GON show much more of an ice look, and the NAM is actually decent with low level thermal profiles. GFS has them flipping to rain... Gfs jacked up qpf too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro / EPS still so warm aloft up to NH. Everything does show a flip back to snow Sunday afternoon/ night It’s really ridiculous. I’m inclined to think it’s out to lunch on this event. As OceanWx said it was off on heights in Canada. The Euro isn’t ALWAYS great with northern stream features or with disturbances coming out of Canada. I’ve been nervous about that late northern stream interaction now for 36 hours. If the NAM continues getting colder today as this event gets inside 36-42 I’m probably tossing the Euro on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nam was cold and gfs similar to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam was cold and gfs similar to 00z. Nam 7-850 temp profiles inside 24 -36 hours on SWFE are very under rated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s really ridiculous. I’m inclined to think it’s out to lunch on this event. As OceanWx said it was off on heights in Canada. The Euro isn’t ALWAYS great with northern stream features or with disturbances coming out of Canada. I’ve been nervous about that late northern stream interaction now for 36 hours. If the NAM continues getting colder today as this event gets inside 36-42 I’m probably tossing the Euro on this. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro was a bust on this. Cold presses always win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro was a bust on this. Cold presses always win Dont try to steal my ice storm bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro was a bust on this. Cold presses always win Euro will cave at 12z. The actual surface track did move a tick south but the thermals in the mid level didn’t seem to change much. Remember euro rarely makes big jumps. But having the 6Z guidance so far continue cold gives me some confidence that 12z will cement things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro will cave at 12z. The actual surface track did move a tick south but the thermals in the mid level didn’t seem to change much. Remember euro rarely makes big jumps. But having the 6Z guidance so far continue cold gives me some confidence that 12z will cement things. I agree to Jerry, I think confidence is increasing that HYA to CHH will see around 5.5" of snow, most of it possibly on the backside of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I agree to Jerry, I think confidence is increasing that HYA to CHH will see around 5.5" of snow, most of it possibly on the backside of the storm. You may actually hit for cycle on ptypes. Start as snow, to mix, to rain. Then flip back to a mix and end as snow as the cold tuck undercuts the warmth aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: You may actually hit for cycle on ptypes. Start as snow, to mix, to rain. Then flip back to a mix and end as snow as the cold tuck undercuts the warmth aloft. Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 43 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Meh, the average cost per person is $3 a year. I could find worse uses for the money. You can gripe about things government spends tax dollars on, but honestly weather is not one of them. Yes it's money well spent but I feel like these big companies make dont use the data as they should and instead try to put their own "spin" on it, hence taxing them more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You may actually hit for cycle on ptypes. Start as snow, to mix, to rain. Then flip back to a mix and end as snow as the cold tuck undercuts the warmth aloft. This whole winter has been like nostalgia for the 80s, because almost every big event (outside of April 1982 and February 1983) that happened here in the 80s was like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: This was only an hour ago. They just lowered it again at 5:10! Wish they’d get their act together...... How about we be happy with 12-20"? It was a cosmetic update for all intents are purposes to get rid of widespread 20:1 snowfall during the peak of the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who knows where . I just meant a lot of sleet and zr for a whole bunch of people. Sleet is also an icestorm Kev as you probably know sleet gets measured as snow (at lower ratios, like 2:1). Frozen precip totals (what we call "snow totals") are actually a measurement of both snow and sleet added together. Freezing rain (glaze) gets measured and put in the books as just rain and only added to the liquid precip totals, not the frozen ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: This was only an hour ago. They just lowered it again at 5:10! Wish they’d get their act together...... More important to get the best info out there vs inflate expectations only to crash them back to reality just before (or during) go time. 18 vs 20", not that big of a deal. My expectations are 14/15" anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just about equally likely at this point that QPF busts as low as a borderline warning event as it is over 1.5" for SNE. Your Pike north line, that gives you goalposts of safely like 5 to 15" right now. Not a bad spot to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, WthrJunkyME said: Well, you know I wouldn’t have huffed and puffed had it gone up more! Just a little grouchy.... I’m good! Also we were a little too high I think vs BOX to our south. Would prefer to match a little closer at this range and deviate as we get to go time when trends become more apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 BOX taking them back up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 FV3 looks to track the low from near NYC to Steve to the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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