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January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

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Feel bad for the people working the night shift tonight. Can’t remember seeing such a drastic change while other short range models are generally consistent. 

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Obviously, the 18z Euro and the first evening model runs have the eastern Iowa members excited.

Nice to see the southward shifts since 18z.  Hope u guys get buried.  :snowing:

The southward adjustments should keep more of a messy mix around here a few hrs longer than expected.  Funny how many of us for days kind of expected southward adjustments and it waited till 18z today to do it lol.  

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4 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Models seem to be coming in a little colder/wetter/south. Wonder if these trends continue with 00z 

yep..and slower

 

over 1 inch of precip for  me into NE IL on the NAM. ..

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Yea I'm in IC for this one unfortunately with no chance of going back to CR, even though their total may double ours if things set up right. Either way, with these trends even IC may see a few inches out of this when nearly every model was forecasting a big rainer for here even just this morning. 

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may be just noise to a little slower then modeled WAA...but at 03Z dew points in the Chicago metro 0 to  4  below while 00z NAM at this time had 1 to 4 above 

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39 minutes ago, Maneee said:

Yeah-- you guys got over .5 an inch of precip. One would certainly wonder about how much of that will freeze. 

Yea that's my thought. As we get closer to freezing it won't accumulate as quickly. But when I see dews hold in the upper 20s that makes me think temps won't climb too aggressively 

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The timing of this event in N IL looks to be horrendous for the evening rush hour. My bet is some location trends colder than expected and around mid-day tomorrow conditions go downhill fast somewhere and people get caught by surprise. Interesting to follow this thread the past few days. The whole temperature rise just seems amazing if it actually occurs.

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GFS cave some....but not as far south as others
Still a very significant southward trend over past 24 hours and it was one of the farthest north/west models so had more distance to make up. I think most important item tonight is the trend on everything being south.

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look at the QPF increase on the GFS from just 12z this morning...almost doubled

12z MAX ..78 NE IA 

18z MAX 1.27 N IL

0z max. 1.48 MLI

Edit: NAM too but MAX SE of GFS

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GEM is south, but probably going to be as wet as last run. Part of the reason we’re seeing a shift with this cycle is that models are now slowing the ejection of the main vort where it now misses the more phased solution we’ve seen for days. The result is a slower system that eventually swoops north/northeast towards Chicago, but the slower progression means that QPF increases. I also wonder if ratios will be a bit better on the north end as more cold air filters in

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The models shifted south like I strongly thought it would, but I don't believe its for the same reasons that I had outlined. The changes are with the vort max itself, which shouldn't necessarily be affected by surface snowcover, especially as it is embedded in strong SW flow from that large upper trough to the west. It's clear that the vort has moved significantly south but I can't figure out why. Unless the models just handled things that poorly, but even that seems implausible as the shift is coming within 24 hours. Interesting case if these trends end up verifying.

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Skilling looked like he was using the latest NAM runs. Had areas in the NW burbs staying in snow for alot of the event. Rockford, Bevidere,Crystal Lake coming in between 5-6". Will see if this verifies.

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wow the 3km NAM came in JUICED.  Don't think we'll be getting 17 inches but have a feeling we will be well into warning criteria snow totals.  

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10 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z UK is pretty far south.  The low track is Quincy to Chicago.

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019012200_48_5660_220.thumb.png.7ccda2e42e21102a5e302dfb9dd5e19f.png

Precip is pretty far south for that low location; you would expect the heaviest snow from about Waterloo to Madison with that track, but lower QPF in those areas.

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2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Euro came in south yet again.

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And more juiced. I’ve only seen a kuchera map for the euro, but it has widespread 8-10” amounts in Iowa 

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Just now, hlcater said:

And more juiced. I’ve only seen a kuchera map for the euro, but it has widespread 8-10” amounts in Iowa 

Can you tell how far south the southern edge of snow moved from 12z? 

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And more juiced. I’ve only seen a kuchera map for the euro, but it has widespread 8-10” amounts in Iowa 
You look pretty golden out there as things stand right now. I think this is not done trending yet, but you should do well even if it trends a bit more south and east.

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Just now, CoalCityWxMan said:

Can you tell how far south the southern edge of snow moved from 12z? 

From 12z? Probably a good 40 miles.

post-117-0-56367600-1548136877.png

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2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Euro came in south yet again.

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South enough where Northern tier of IL counties have more of an icing/frozen threat or is this approaching greater chance of snow? 

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