OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Finally might cover my brown lawn for the first time in a month. Of course MSP is in the screwhole but the 2-4” over the next 48 hours will be our largest snow to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Quote National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 The 12Z set of data continues to support temperatures near freezing at the surface Tuesday morning, with rain indicated south of Highway 30 aloft. That signal is enough that a winter weather advisory is likely to be issued this afternoon for Tuesday morning through the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 37 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 12z Ukie went south. Takes the low over LAF. 99% wrong most likely, but kinda funny. Haha. At 36 hours, it's a weak surface tough/low in Missouri. Meanwhile other models are several mb deeper with a surface low in Iowa at that time. I'm guessing LOT goes advisory for at least I-80 north, and quite possibly the entire cwa since the bar for icing is low and to account for the lagging response in pavement/road temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 ECM is a touch south of its 00z run and closer to the NAM/3k/UKMET. Would be a 3-6" for most of IA into far N IL and southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 My thoughts from last night are generally the same for the QCA after looking at 12z. Looks like an hour or less period of light freezing rain, perhaps with a few wet flakes changing to all rain by early afternoon. Should stay all liquid till at least midnight when 95% of precip event is over. The northern DVN cwa def has a tougher forecast. Looks like Cedar Rapids to Dubuque could get a nice little snow, but I'd be concerned about WAA tempering amounts some. Could see a messy mix even there. If they can stay all or mostly snow they could pick up several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Haha. At 36 hours, it's a weak surface tough/low in Missouri. Meanwhile other models are several mb deeper with a surface low in Iowa at that time. I'm guessing LOT goes advisory for at least I-80 north, and quite possibly the entire cwa since the bar for icing is low and to account for the lagging response in pavement/road temps.Agree we'll be needing an advisory in all likelihood. Also wonder how long it'll remain in effect with the rapid temperature fall tomorrow night pointing toward flash freeze potential. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Amazing to eventually see the snow maps out of this one. Someone 25 miles apart is going to get an ice storm and someone else is going to get 3-6 inches of snow. Basically you can forecast a county or two as a guide of potential conditions but a minor shift has a lot of impact. Add to that the timing (Tuesday PM rush hour) and I don't envy Ricky and crew now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 The GFS currently looks a little too far north with the freezing line out in KS/MO. Have to see if that continues as the hours go by but it might be a good idea to take a blend and not ride the GFS thermal profiles verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 18z HRRR is a pretty decent bump south compared to 12z. As we know the long range hrrr sucks, but late trends are something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The GFS currently looks a little too far north with the freezing line out in KS/MO. Have to see if that continues as the hours go by but it might be a good idea to take a blend and not ride the GFS thermal profiles verbatim. And the 12z ECMWF is way off out there in that regard. For example, it had KC in the mid 30s at 1 pm central and it's still below freezing there. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 NAM looks to be south/weaker too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Last week, most of the Chicago people were quite surprised and disappointed once it became evident that the American guidance followed the Ukie and Euro 24 hours out or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 18z NAM is south for sure and places metro DSM much closer to, or just within, the heavy snow band. This outcome would not surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: NAM looks to be south/weaker too LOT goes advisory for all IL counties, mentioned lower confidence in IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LOT goes advisory for all IL counties, mentioned lower confidence in IN. Iroquois and Ford are missing in IL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, bl5585 said: Iroquois and Ford are missing in IL as well. You're right. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 17 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: 18z NAM is south for sure and places metro DSM much closer to, or just within, the heavy snow band. This outcome would not surprise me at all. More importantly is it’s finally producing QPF similar to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 18z NAM says Minneapolis snow futility will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 For some proof of what I mentioned earlier, here is the 12z Euro vs actual temps valid at 3 pm central. It's not a cloud cover issue either, as the Euro had extensive clouds progged. So why look at this area? Well, it's downstream of the surface low and there is snowcover in a significant part of the area. Sounds familiar for areas farther north/east tomorrow. Now, there's a risk in overreacting and thinking well, done deal, it's going to end up warming more slowly from here on out. Not necessarily. If the temperatures don't drop off as much or warm more quickly than progged tonight and into tomorrow, then it cancels out. So it means you watch actual observations (especially the northward climb of the 32F isotherm) and compare to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 A tick colder and wetter on the 18z GFS. Could be a respectable snow event for S Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Woah, 18z gfs decides to give 8-12 inches to a large part of S Wisconsin. Bumped QPF amounts from around .6" to .8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 And this sudden shift of the models took place too late for the NWS afternoon package again lol. They’re still calling for an inch of snow here where the GFS, RDPS and NAM all point to 6-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Pretty significant wetter trend on recent runs. Maybe a touch cooler across IA too. DMX put in a few rows of warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 46 minutes ago, Hoosier said: For some proof of what I mentioned earlier, here is the 12z Euro vs actual temps valid at 3 pm central. It's not a cloud cover issue either, as the Euro had extensive clouds progged. So why look at this area? Well, it's downstream of the surface low and there is snowcover in a significant part of the area. Sounds familiar for areas farther north/east tomorrow. Now, there's a risk in overreacting and thinking well, done deal, it's going to end up warming more slowly from here on out. Not necessarily. If the temperatures don't drop off as much or warm more quickly than progged tonight and into tomorrow, then it cancels out. So it means you watch actual observations (especially the northward climb of the 32F isotherm) and compare to the models. Well explained Hoosier. I certainly don’t envy a forecaster in this position. SREF ensembles nearly literally spilt in two over my area. Half the members give us rain with little snow accumulation and the other half gives us a respectable amount of snow. The NWS torn on which direction to go so they go right down the middle. In my experience when you have high heights to your E/NE and skin temps at 0-10° for over 48 hours, a storm system is really going to have to pack quite the punch with WAA to boost temps to near 40° (as some models are hinting at) and this system just isn’t that robust. Don’t see it happening as some global models are depicting especially when some don’t even have a handle on current temps. Short range models will hopefully have a better handle on this. Another interesting system to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 18z gfs still north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Models seem to be coming in a little colder/wetter/south. Wonder if these trends continue with 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 In the LOT area, the zone I'd watch for the possibility of somewhat more substantial ice would be roughly the I-88 corridor and perhaps a tad south. Farther north may be more snow/mix and less ice but it's a close call. Shouldn't get too crazy, maybe like a tenth or areas of two tenths, but it should be fairly breezy despite the inversion locking up the stronger winds aloft. Even one or two tenths of ice can start to cause some scattered electrical issues when you throw in gusts of 25-30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 It's 10 with a dewpoint of -10 here. You would never guess that precip would be transitioning to rain 24 hours from now. How the heck did meteorologists do this stuff back in the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: It's 10 with a dewpoint of -10 here. You would never guess that precip would be transitioning to rain 24 hours from now. How the heck did meteorologists do this stuff back in the day? Yeah...and ORD has a dewpoint of -7. Hard to fathom the Td increasing by 35+ degrees over the next 24 hours. Normally you'd lean against it, but the model support seems overwhelming. Hopefully the Ukie and NAM can win out...but, unfortunately, WAA can overwhelm everything if the conditions are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, beavis1729 said: Yeah...and ORD has a dewpoint of -7. Hard to fathom the Td increasing by 35+ degrees over the next 24 hours. Normally you'd lean against it, but the model support seems overwhelming. Hopefully the Ukie and NAM can win out...but, unfortunately, WAA can overwhelm everything if the conditions are right. Forecast of 17 at 7:30 AM tomorrow. Rain by 1:30pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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