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ChescoWx

Winter Events Jan 17-20

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Latest Wxsim with 18z GFS/NAM data for NW Chester County is nowhere near as wintery/icy as my NWS point and click which sees no rain - all ice for my area....I am siding with WXSIM on this one....but still not good

Rundown - Snow arrives by 2PM / Heavy Snow at 9pm with 6.5" on the ground / IP through 11pm with another 1" of IP - for total snow accumulation of 7.5" by 11pm - then ZR from 11pm till 2am with 0.75" of ZR and then another inch of rain before ending at 10am before temps plummet

 
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Wow just watched local fox news. They are talking like a hugh winter storm is coming to our area. Outside of the poconos an maybe upper lehigh valley. This is a crap winter event

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A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect here from 1 pm today until 1 pm Sunday afternoon for up to 2" of snow and a light glaze of ice. I am actually a bit surprised by the amount of time the advisory is in effect but not the advisory itself.

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Ugh 33 dp30 as of 4:30, at this juncture I doubt this is as bad as previously thought, 3-5 down from 5-11 and temps rising to mid and upper 30’s overnight. Then crashing to the mid 20’s by afternoon Sunday. 

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Hmm. My sleet to rain call from yesterday looks to verify now.  I’m getting pretty good at this!  Lol. Currently I’m not under any advisories but suspect a flood one will come later. Should have few hours of wind to dry things up some before temps crash. Actually glad.  This storm is a mess. 

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

It is actually unreal that we've gone from near HECS to entirely rain with no snow in 7 days. This winter is toast.

We arent even seeing any solid fantasy storms/digital snow much this year aside from a renegade blip here and there then those signals dissipate quickly. Really strange winter given all the hype by the media and other met outlets at the beginning of the season. I was never really sure what they were seeing tbh but I remained hopeful anyway. I think many of those calls weighed much too heavily on enso and modoki just painting it with a broad brush. Analogs are like snowflakes....similar but very different at the same time. 

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As soon as it started looking like freezing rain we should of all checked out. We don't get freezing rain like that here very often. It could of swing the other way I suppose but I'm not really surprised at any of this. Blame the people who yelled GREAT PATTERN two or three weeks ago. A great pattern doesn't include a decently positive NAO. Artic air, A negative NAO, and a solid Miller A on the models 10 days out would be grounds for excitement.

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Latest Wxsim Forecast - with 6z data - very close to my NWS Point and Click which also has temps rising above freezing around midnight - will be watching those DPs today - kind of expect this to trend warmer with very little snow or ice chances..

Today: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the afternoon. High 35. Wind
 southeast around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation
 (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about
 half an inch.
 
 Tonight: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet, snow, and rain likely in the evening,
 then a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow likely after midnight. Low
 28, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 32.
 Wind southeast around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation
 (liquid equivalent) mostly between 3 and 5 inches. Snow or ice (on ground)
 accumulation around 2 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1
 inches.
 
 Sunday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Patchy
 light fog in the morning. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of
 rain, sleet, and snow in the afternoon. High 42, but temperatures falling in the
 afternoon. Wind southwest around 6 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the morning,
 becoming northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 27 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half
 an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected.

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36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We arent even seeing any solid fantasy storms/digital snow much this year aside from a renegade blip here and there then those signals dissipate quickly. Really strange winter given all the hype by the media and other met outlets at the beginning of the season. I was never really sure what they were seeing tbh but I remained hopeful anyway. I think many of those calls weighed much too heavily on enso and modoki just painting it with a broad brush. Analogs are like snowflakes....similar but very different at the same time. 

I think that the entire concept of using analogs is a somewhat flawed science now as many of the analogs are from years when the planet and more specifically   the oceans was not as warm of a place as they are  now.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We arent even seeing any solid fantasy storms/digital snow much this year aside from a renegade blip here and there then those signals dissipate quickly. Really strange winter given all the hype by the media and other met outlets at the beginning of the season. I was never really sure what they were seeing tbh but I remained hopeful anyway. I think many of those calls weighed much too heavily on enso and modoki just painting it with a broad brush. Analogs are like snowflakes....similar but very different at the same time. 

Honestly it has been an average winter for this area so far - through today we have 10.2" of snow only 1.6" below normal. The upcoming pattern is very cold for the next month....as I always say give me the cold the storms will work out.....patience all on this forum will end up with a well above normal snow year....keep the faith!!

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Current temp up to 35 here, I think I can feel pretty confident in saying the chance of frozen here is very minimal. It wouldn't surprise me if the NWS dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for my area.

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I'll keep the faith but it is a bit sad to go from expecting a snowpack enhancer before the rain that might allow some snow on the ground into next week, to a snowpack eraser, all of this since yesterday morning. But it has been nice having snow on the ground for a week now. We'll see what happens over the next week or two.

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This trended so bad for us. Radar doesn't look very good for much snow. I'll be surprised if we reach the 3-5" the nws is predicting.

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We arent even seeing any solid fantasy storms/digital snow much this year aside from a renegade blip here and there then those signals dissipate quickly. Really strange winter given all the hype by the media and other met outlets at the beginning of the season. I was never really sure what they were seeing tbh but I remained hopeful anyway. I think many of those calls weighed much too heavily on enso and modoki just painting it with a broad brush. Analogs are like snowflakes....similar but very different at the same time. 

Not nearly enough attention was given to the fact we are in a decadal +nao regime. That was always going to be the key to winter and without it we'd be relying on luck. It's why I didn't buy into winter of yore talk. I didn't think it'd be this bad though and that we'd finish below normal. Now barring a lucky break, I think it's much more likely than above normal. Seasonal trends cannot be denied and when the pattern change is indefinitely in day 10-15 it's just not coming...

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53 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Current temp up to 35 here, I think I can feel pretty confident in saying the chance of frozen here is very minimal. It wouldn't surprise me if the NWS dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for my area.

35 over here in the PA coal region as well. Much warmer than I'd hoped or expected, but cloud cover and high DP's kept the temperature up overnight.

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