Birds~69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: How much further s can this come in? I don't think 95 can see all snow but something like the Euro 3-6" followed by sleet and freezing rain would be a major event. Things have quickly got interesting down here. Will the trends continue or do we see things level off from here? The -AO definitely looks to stay in place although it approaches positive. It creates just enough blocking for most of us. Very very close to everyone being in the game. Next 24 hours should be fun between the minor event and tracking this. Quite a difference between upper and lower Bucks and Montgomery counties. Hopefully you (lower Bucks) and I (lower Mont) can eek out some of the good stuff. Still 2+ days to work on things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 SE works...still icy though.Everybody remain calmWe have the situation under controlWe will be out of here in a jiffySent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 hours ago, anthonyweather said: I’m like 6-12” for Lv . Majority of guidance zeroing in on central bucks being a battleground between a SECS and a VD 07 redux (massive sleet storm). Certainly not looking like all snow as upper levels appear to torch still. However 2m temps look cold enough to support frozen thru much of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Majority of guidance zeroing in on central bucks being a battleground between a SECS and a VD 07 redux (massive sleet storm). Certainly not looking like all snow as upper levels appear to torch still. However 2m temps look cold enough to support frozen thru much of the event. If this happens and KamuSnow places his "sleet pile" in the correct location (limited/no sun) I swear it could last through March into April w/our outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: If this happens and KamuSnow places his "sleet pile" in the correct location (limited/no sun) I swear it could last through March into April w/our outlook. I've backed off analyzing in the great detail the LR stuff for a bit, but last I saw the PV visit was transient then we moderate and have the usual Feb roller coaster with nothing sustained as the pattern and war/nao roll over continues on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The thing is this flip to a 'sustained neg nao'/'epic pattern' is still days 10-15 on the ens.....same place it has been for over 2 weeks now. If u go back and look at the CPC graphs u will also see the 12 day+ forecasts have been to go deep neg but the verifications have been neutral to slightly positive at best. The war has been the anomalous area where our neg nao was to develop from via migration but the tendency we saw at the start of the season is currently showing up again irt to rolling over that ridge. Eventually a piece of the war will break off and head towards the nao region but im skeptical that it stalls there and locks in based on the nina-esque progressions we have seen and are still seeing in poleward regions. 1-3" tonight then a mess over the weekend. Short term apparent weather has been much more satisfying to track this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Latest Wxsim with 6z data shows snow by 9pm tonight with 2.0" before ending by 6am tomorrow. Then Snow arrives Saturday afternoon becoming moderate to heavy becoming heavy sleet by 6pm with 3.0" to 5.0" of Snow/IP before changing to ZR by 9:30pm - ZR till midnight with 0.40" falling as ZR. Then temps warm above freezing at midnight with heavy rain falling through 9am with another 1.70" of rain before ending around 9am Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 mt holly kind brushed over the ice threat in their morning update. Seem to think it will mostly be either snow or rain with a small sliver of sleet/freezing rain. They're still thinking 95 and most of the metro area remain mostly rain. Not sure I agree with that based on the trends. Someone is going to see a significant ice event imo and I think it should be getting more traction with the amount of precipitation in this system. 2 inches LE of Snow/sleet/freezing rain is glacier territory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z NAM, most of this in SE PA is actually sleet/frz but goes to really show the frozen potential even for 95...big shifts as we get closer and the models key in on the low level cold... looking forward to 12z, i think these trends aren't done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks like models are actually settling in..12z NAM backed off a bit as it's more amped...still a lot of ice though for 95 before going to rain. I think the chance of this being a mostly snow event down here are around nil. Thinking we may have a VD 07 like sleet/frz event setting up though. Low level cold definitely will be stronger than what is being depicted atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z euro and now the 12z NAM are raising heights more and scorching the upper levels. Not the move we wanted to see if 95 and immediate burbs were hoping for more frozen. Could still be a decent period of sleet but I think far NW does well here eta: ninja'd by iceman lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Looks like models are actually settling in..12z NAM backed off a bit as it's more amped...still a lot of ice though for 95 before going to rain. I think the chance of this being a mostly snow event down here are around nil. Thinking we may have a VD 07 like sleet/frz event setting up though. Low level cold definitely will be stronger than what is being depicted atm Oddly(?) the 6z euro and 12z nam scour out that ll cold rather quickly. Less of s cad look with these runs. Let's see if 12z continues towards this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Oddly(?) the 6z euro and 12z nam scour out that ll cold rather quickly. Less of s cad look with these runs. Let's see if 12z continues towards this idea. Not sure I buy it. I understand the upper levels torching quick but I just don't see the low level cold being scoured out as quick as depicted right now. We see it a lot in these situations. If the primary gets above our latitude I would buy it more, but with the transfer to the coast occurring below us now, I think the models will adjust to the CAD as we get closer. Very rarely is it handled well outside 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Not sure I buy it. I understand the upper levels torching quick but I just don't see the low level cold being scoured out as quick as depicted right now. We see it a lot in these situations. If the primary gets above our latitude I would buy it more, but with the transfer to the coast occurring below us now, I think the models will adjust to the CAD as we get closer. Very rarely is it handled well outside 72 hours. I agree with this but we are seeing less of the transfer type look on those models I mentioned. Of interest is the NAM is usually most accurate with the cad features and is quickly losing that idea? Might be a red flag or perhaps just a blip run. Awaiting rest of 12z but wont make a solid call based on this one run alone that's for sure. Potential is there still for quite a mess in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'll be honest, I sort of like where I am at the moment. I would rather have the lower snow accum if cold rain is just going to wash it away. I'm still a little concerned about ice. Will be interesting to see just how impactful the folks that are right on the line (which should be well NW of me atm) of an event this will be. Surely you guys will have a good consensus this afternoon, or after tonight's model runs once our little storm is out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 ICON @ 60...LL cold much more pronounced than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 ICON 1-2 punch lol love it. It cute and always tries hard....it really does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Here is round 2 on the icon with the 2nd coastal low it forms after the front clears. Guess it's not out if the question with the war still there but the caa behind the front making a pass looks like it is hellbent on trucking thru and not allowing further development to affect us. Icon says nah I will slow the front to a crawl and hit you guys again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 95 doesn't get above freezing on the ICON. Sneaks up right along 95 then sinks back at 72. What it's showing as rain in a few panels is actually sleet/frz rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Man can't wait to see the Euro play its next shot, it has a nice look for birdie on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: Man can't wait to see the Euro play its next shot, it has a nice look for birdie on the 12z. I think we are locked in on a far NW heavy snow hit right now. Just need to see about immediate NW burbs now etc irt ice sleet slop or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think we are locked in on a far NW heavy snow hit right now. Just need to see about immediate NW burbs now etc irt ice sleet slop or snow yeah, I could see the line being just south of the Schuylkill River. Classic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think we are locked in on a far NW heavy snow hit right now. Just need to see about immediate NW burbs now etc irt ice sleet slop or snow Yes! Here here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Interesting to note how far south today's threat came. This was initially a rain event for 95...now looks to remain all snow. a similar shift with this storm and many of us would be in the game big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Yes! Here here! I saw u mention u in Montco now? Did u relocate? I look to be ground zero here in central bucks going to be touch and go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Interesting to note how far south today's threat came. This was initially a rain event for 95...now looks to remain all snow. a similar shift with this storm and many of us would be in the game big time. Initially this was a HECS 5 days ago if u recall. Some guidance had 40"+ for DC. The wavering solutions have been really interesting. Eta: I dont think we are done with bouncing around until this wave tonight passes thru earliest. I could still it trending either way tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ukie much further west...may be time to just sit on this one for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Plenty of cold rain for all but the far NW crowd on the Ukie, again just needed to hold the line and not lose an inch of ground from 0z one step forward and two steps back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 50 minutes ago, RedSky said: Plenty of cold rain for all but the far NW crowd on the Ukie, again just needed to hold the line and not lose an inch of ground from 0z one step forward and two steps back Yep 12z was two nails out of 4 in the coffin so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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