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John1122

January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

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11 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Just for kicks and giggles...

Average low in Fort Dodge, IA (approx. dead center of the -48 anomaly area on the Euro) is 8.2. -61 departure equates to -52.8. 

Yikes.  As unlikely as it appears...one storm spins up, and that comes even further south.  Those are the types of boundaries that storms like to ride.  If that cold verifies, it will be interesting if something comes across.  The GFS made an attempt at it.

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11 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

I try to remain optimistic but as Mack says, "these are always 7-10 days away."

Besides, we already have like 12+" of snow already in Kingsport for meteorological winter(DJF), and January isn't even over.  I know many others haven't had that, but I certainly am not complaining.  We have reeled in one big storm already.  Just kind of how El Nino winters are IMHO....well, that and latitude is always an issue. 

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TRI(airport) has recorded 13.1" of snow since November if I calculated that correctly.  That is not representative of the entire forum area obviously.  This is a prime spot during El Ninos(evidently faux Nino's as well).  We have gone long stretches in between events which is typical, and why I don't like back-loaded winters.  Fortunately we got some snow early at TRI.  While the pattern has definitely been pushed back...it has been productive within some NE TN micro-climates.

One reason to watch severe cold in the Plains and Upper Midwest is what was discussed earlier.  I do more than my fair share of model watching, but sometimes a old-fashioned pattern recognition without modeling does work.  I go 50/50 that a storm rides that boundary in the form of a Clipper on steroids or a slider.  We might get our first taste of that next Tuesday.  But if that super-charged cold air sets a boundary over the Ohio River Valley, a storm(if energy is present) might take a run at it.

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10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

TRI(airport) has recorded 13.1" of snow since November if I calculated that correctly.  That is not representative of the entire forum area obviously.  This is a prime spot during El Ninos(evidently faux Nino's as well).  We have gone long stretches in between events which is typical, and why I don't like back-loaded winters.  Fortunately we got some snow early at TRI.  While the pattern has definitely been pushed back...it has been productive within some NE TN micro-climates.

One reason to watch severe cold in the Plains and Upper Midwest is what was discussed earlier.  I do more than my fair share of model watching, but sometimes a old-fashioned pattern recognition without modeling does work.  I go 50/50 that a storm rides that boundary in the form of a Clipper on steroids or a slider.  We might get our first taste of that next Tuesday.  But if that super-charged cold air sets a boundary over the Ohio River Valley, a storm(if energy is present) might take a run at it.

Check out HR192 on the 12z GEM.  It has some serious cold invading all of the US.  Like below freezing on the coast of Cali from SAN Fran to LA.  And that cold goes from east coast to west coast.  It would be pretty impressive if something like that happened!!

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I've had 6.5 inches of snow so far this winter, but it's not seemed like much of anything because it's came in small increments. Last year I did the same thing, biggest snow was in March after the sswe.  Not sure what the deal is this winter, just blah with nothing working out. It's always tough wasting cold stretches in January without seeing anything. It's almost getting to the point where we don't have meaningful snow events in January any more. Even our last couple of good winters were February loaded.  

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18 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I've had 6.5 inches of snow so far this winter, but it's not seemed like much of anything because it's came in small increments. Last year I did the same thing, biggest snow was in March after the sswe.  Not sure what the deal is this winter, just blah with nothing working out. It's always tough wasting cold stretches in January without seeing anything. It's almost getting to the point where we don't have meaningful snow events in January any more. Even our last couple of good winters were February loaded.  

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro has nearly -39C departures over the norther Plains around 

What does the EURO look like? 

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Least it looks better than the 0Z did last night

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z JAN23
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
WED 00Z 23-JAN                  45.0    32.2    15010   0.00    0.00      99    
WED 06Z 23-JAN  45.5    44.2    44.7    36.2    17014   0.00    0.00      98    
WED 12Z 23-JAN  47.9    44.6    48.0    44.3    17015   0.01    0.00      98    
WED 18Z 23-JAN  55.0    48.0    54.9    53.4    18014   0.10    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 24-JAN  55.3    43.1    42.5    42.1    32009   1.04    0.00     100    
THU 06Z 24-JAN  42.5    29.7    29.6    26.4    32008   0.18    0.01     100    
THU 12Z 24-JAN  29.6    25.1    25.1    17.7    31007   0.00    0.00      93    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  36.2    24.5    36.5    20.2    29005   0.00    0.00       3    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  41.0    33.9    33.9    23.5    27005   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  33.9    27.5    27.3    19.4    32007   0.00    0.00      49    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  27.3    16.8    16.6     2.8    32008   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  26.2    15.2    26.5     0.7    31004   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  30.0    23.6    23.2     7.9    16004   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  28.0    22.8    28.1     7.6    22005   0.00    0.00     100    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  28.9    25.4    25.3    10.6    22005   0.00    0.00      27    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  40.9    25.2    41.2    21.6    25006   0.00    0.00      40    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  43.5    34.9    34.7    24.7    23006   0.00    0.00      34    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  35.4    32.2    34.6    28.1    21008   0.00    0.00      99    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  39.1    34.6    39.1    31.0    21009   0.00    0.00      96    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  49.1    39.1    49.5    36.9    24012   0.01    0.00      66    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  51.9    43.0    42.6    35.5    26003   0.00    0.00      31    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  42.6    35.9    36.0    33.7    09004   0.00    0.00      48    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  39.9    34.9    40.0    38.8    18008   0.00    0.00      16    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  55.6    39.9    55.9    42.9    19011   0.00    0.00      67    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  57.5    53.6    53.5    37.8    18012   0.00    0.00      68    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  53.6    45.3    45.5    45.1    26009   0.16    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  45.7    19.5    19.4    10.4    31010   0.06    0.00      96    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  25.5    18.0    25.7     9.1    31007   0.00    0.00      83    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  27.7    23.9    23.8     6.0    33006   0.00    0.00      94    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  23.8    18.9    18.8    -1.9    33008   0.00    0.00     100    
WED 12Z 30-JAN  18.8    16.9    17.2    -6.4    03003   0.00    0.00      95    
WED 18Z 30-JAN  29.8    17.1    30.1    -8.6    19002   0.00    0.00      63    
THU 00Z 31-JAN  33.4    26.3    26.1     4.8    16004   0.00    0.00      33    
THU 06Z 31-JAN  26.4    23.7    23.8     7.4    20005   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 12Z 31-JAN  24.2    23.3    23.9     7.9    20006   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 18Z 31-JAN  40.8    23.8    41.0     8.2    30005   0.00    0.00       3    
FRI 00Z 01-FEB  41.8    29.6    29.3    13.2    01006   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 01-FEB  29.3    23.3    23.2     9.2    04004   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 12Z 01-FEB  23.2    20.8    20.8     8.7    03004   0.00    0.00      12    
FRI 18Z 01-FEB  42.4    20.6    42.7     9.1    01003   0.00    0.00      68    
SAT 00Z 02-FEB  44.1    32.9    32.7    16.7    00006   0.00    0.00      53    

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z JAN23
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
WED 12Z 23-JAN                  50.2    44.2    17016   0.00    0.00      99    
WED 18Z 23-JAN  53.4    49.7    53.5    52.1    19010   0.16    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 24-JAN  53.6    43.8    43.3    43.1    32009   0.88    0.00     100    
THU 06Z 24-JAN  43.3    30.4    30.2    27.6    32009   0.12    0.00      99    
THU 12Z 24-JAN  30.2    24.9    24.9    17.6    31007   0.00    0.00      97    
THU 18Z 24-JAN  35.4    24.6    35.7    19.4    30004   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 00Z 25-JAN  40.4    33.5    33.6    23.6    28005   0.00    0.00       5    
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  33.6    27.8    27.6    19.2    32007   0.00    0.00      66    
FRI 12Z 25-JAN  27.6    16.4    16.2     0.1    32008   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  26.2    14.9    26.5     0.3    32003   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  30.2    24.1    23.4     8.0    17004   0.00    0.00       1    
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  25.6    22.6    25.7     7.5    21005   0.00    0.00      99    
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  29.4    25.2    26.4    12.8    23005   0.00    0.00       4    
SAT 18Z 26-JAN  41.7    25.5    41.9    19.4    24006   0.00    0.00      66    
SUN 00Z 27-JAN  44.4    35.0    34.8    25.5    20006   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  35.5    33.9    34.6    27.4    21008   0.00    0.00      91    
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  35.6    33.7    33.7    30.6    21005   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  43.4    33.4    43.3    35.7    24006   0.02    0.00     100    
MON 00Z 28-JAN  44.6    38.7    38.6    35.6    01003   0.01    0.00      78    
MON 06Z 28-JAN  39.0    33.6    34.1    33.4    16005   0.00    0.00      63    
MON 12Z 28-JAN  35.6    33.7    35.7    35.4    16006   0.00    0.00      93    
MON 18Z 28-JAN  51.8    35.5    52.1    38.7    18010   0.00    0.00      84    
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  55.2    51.7    51.6    36.0    18009   0.00    0.00      98    
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  51.6    49.9    50.6    40.5    18014   0.00    0.00      53    
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  51.2    29.8    29.7    26.6    30011   0.40    0.23     100    
TUE 18Z 29-JAN  29.8    16.9    18.0     6.7    30010   0.05    0.05      92    
WED 00Z 30-JAN  19.1    16.6    16.5     5.1    29006   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 30-JAN  16.5     9.0     9.7     0.1    21006   0.00    0.00      50    
WED 12Z 30-JAN  17.9     8.7    14.7     5.2    31006   0.00    0.00      30    
WED 18Z 30-JAN  22.7    10.7    23.0    -0.3    25008   0.00    0.00      71    
THU 00Z 31-JAN  25.4    21.8    21.8    12.2    26008   0.04    0.04     100    
THU 06Z 31-JAN  21.8     9.5     9.2     0.1    35007   0.02    0.02      71    
THU 12Z 31-JAN   9.2    -3.1    -3.4   -12.9    01003   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 18Z 31-JAN  17.7    -6.0    18.2    -8.3    21002   0.00    0.00      17    
FRI 00Z 01-FEB  27.1    17.7    20.2     0.9    11004   0.00    0.00      28    
FRI 06Z 01-FEB  27.3    17.6    25.0    10.7    23005   0.00    0.00      64    
FRI 12Z 01-FEB  30.8    21.6    29.5    23.7    26002   0.00    0.00      99    
FRI 18Z 01-FEB  31.9    28.8    30.8    16.9    35005   0.01    0.01     100    
SAT 00Z 02-FEB  31.0    21.2    21.2    12.6    34006   0.04    0.04       0    
SAT 06Z 02-FEB  21.2    10.1     9.9     3.7    36005   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 12Z 02-FEB   9.9     0.3     0.4    -7.4    00004   0.00    0.00       0    

 

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Just an observation after looking at the 12z euro.  It has a true arctic front for the 29th.  At 1am, Nashville temps are in the low 50's.  By 7am temps crash to 30 and by 1pm temps have fallen to the mid to upper teens with 4 to 5 inches of snow on the ground.  Frontal snow that would likely be blown by 20-30 mph winds...  pretty fun look for you guys over that way.

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3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

What does the EURO look like? 

Big winter storm for areas west of the Plateau and the far eastern areas. Nothing doing along the plateau and eastern valley. 0z gave me 9 inches, 12z 1 inch. Still a long way to go unfortunately.

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2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Just an observation after looking at the 12z euro.  It has a true arctic front for the 29th.  At 1am, Nashville temps are in the low 50's.  By 7am temps crash to 30 and by 1pm temps have fallen to the mid to upper teens with 4 to 5 inches of snow on the ground.  Frontal snow that would likely be blown by 20-30 mph winds...  pretty fun look for you guys over that way.

Going old school 

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2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

What does the EURO look like? 

Looks like Jax has you covered w the deterministic stuff.  Cold.  That is how it looks.  The d10 map has -50F departures over the Ohio Valley.   I am definitely wary of the "Lucy pulling the football" analogy.  Just fun to look at those types of outputs.  If that verifies, I suspect something runs that boundary.  I don't have a ton of model support, but there are 2-3 different pieces of energy that slide along that boundary that could cause mischief.  In 14-15, those little pieces of energy had incredibly high snow ratios.  We were squeezing out 2-3" sometimes from just .1 of water.  

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I am just using these only as an example.  d10 maps are generally taboo and for good reason.  The 500 map looks like departing cold and is not that impressive.  Meanwhile, the surface map is near record breaking cold for the Midwest.  If that front drags across the GOM, no telling what can happen or if a wave develops as it slides through.  

1882598421_ScreenShot2019-01-23at2_14_48PM.png.154ebf7312c5b9587ebbf8c9f0fed179.png

1829688909_ScreenShot2019-01-23at2_14_08PM.png.2b92307d88a98850663610ac0d820da6.png

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And sometimes it might seem a bit insignificant to comment on temps, etc.  During future years, we can pull these threads up for reference.  If models were showing repetitive extremes and not verifying, that tells us to be wary.  OTH, if we see a certain look on a model and it does verify...that tells us something else.  Like the old Edison quote...He didn’t fail 10,000 times at a light bulb.  He just found 10,000x ways they shouldn’t be made

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And sometimes it might seem a bit insignificant to comment on temps, etc.  During future years, we can pull these threads up for reference.  If models were showing repetitive extremes and not verifying, that tells us to be wary.  OTH, if we see a certain look on a model and it does verify...that tells us something else.  Like the old Edison quote...He didn’t fail 10,000 times at a light bulb.  He just founf 10,000x ways they shouldn’t be made


I think we have found plenty of ways how it will not snow.


.
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13 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 


I think we have found plenty of ways how it will not snow. emoji23.png


.

 

Truth, man.  Truth.  LOL.   Analogy fail.  LOL.  Dowlsloping.  Warm nose.  Clipper is too far to the north.  Cold chasing rain.   Disorganized system.   A positive SOI during an El Nino which turns out to maybe not be an El Nino.  Delayed -NAO.  Northwest jog.  Suppressed system.  Too cold.  Too warm.  A prolonged SSW that prevents a -NAO.  Poor source regions.   Miller B.  Poor phase.  Cutters.  Low in the Lakes.   Latitude.   Spring.

The pitch is on the way from Carvers...  

G2-Ortiz-Slam.gif

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Just now, John1122 said:

Ironically last year this was the one thing that didn't prevent snow from falling here. 

LOL.  No doubt.  Maybe summer would have been better.  Had that great cold snap during late December and early January...and went bone dry.  Spring arrives and it wouldn't stop.  

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The extreme cold coming to the east correlates well with the EPO crashing. -EPO can override a +AO, if you can get both to crash together then insane outputs are possible on modeling, setting up cross polar flow. Right now the cold on the modeling is way more believable going off the indices, than what was shown the other day.

gfs_epo_bias.png

gfs_t850_conus2_28.png

ecmwf_epo_bias.png

ecmwf_t850_conus2_29.png

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To go along with Carvers post about a if a southern piece of energy happened to make it into the gulf along the arctic front, the Euro has that piece but takes it across the upper south instead of the gulf (it's what lays down the snowfall along the front)...E3 on the GEFS shows what "could" happen if that piece somehow formed in the gulf along the front. 

eps_slp_lows_east_22.png

eps_slp_lows_east_26.png

gefs_snow_ens_east_33.png

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Hour 180 on the 0z GFS.  Not warm.  Not warm at all.
Also continues to advertise next Tuesdays event and even at 10:1 ratio which is likely low for the event's average the whole forum is 2-4".

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Fv3 with a great snow run for east tn, at 200 hrs or so the temps go deep negative.  How we get the snow is a little funky looking to my eyes (small amounts of moisture keep rotating through)

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Just a quick question to enhance my winter forecasting skills;
Which model ratio is more accurate/better? The standard 10:1 or the Kuchera Ratio?

Thank You

Tim

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6 minutes ago, HSVWx said:

Just a quick question to enhance my winter forecasting skills;
Which model ratio is more accurate/better? The standard 10:1 or the Kuchera Ratio?

Thank You

Tim

I generally use the ratio'd map and take 30 percent off of it. The ratio'd map works for every situation, wet snow, 10:1 or dry/high ratio snow.

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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I generally use the ratio'd map and take 30 percent off of it. The ratio'd map works for every situation, wet snow, 10:1 or dry/high ratio snow.

Ok John.....Thank you! I do appreciate that sir

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