Jump to content

HSVWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    25

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by HSVWx

  1. HSVWx
  2. HSVWx
    Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1202 PM CST Wed Feb 6 2019 Interesting: Past model runs have been too hasty on lifting the front north out of our CWA...with the 00z runs holding off now until this evening when the surface low begins it`s shift northeastward. This delay may provide a better threat/focus for a few severe storms across our area and heavier rainfall. CAMs suggest a pool of 800-1200 j/kg of CAPE just south of the boundary this afternoon with decent shear supporting a Fixed-layer STA of near 4. Interesting and worrisome...one of the CIPs analogs for 07/00z is the February 5th 2008 outbreak. So what are the limiting factors? A lack of height falls pushing in for one...perhaps morning showers limiting the low-level instability keeping a CAP in place and mediocre midlevel lapse rates. Feel that the upward bump to a slight risk near the boundary by SPC was a wise decision...and it may have to be expanded south to the MS state line if pockets of sun are observed. The threat for severe weather will continue tonight as the shear increases through midday tomorrow with the cold front approaching. have added an isolated tornado threat in today`s HWO. Total rainfall amounts of near 3 inches are still projected near the KY and Mo borders...with 1-2 farther south. In addition have issued a wind advisory beginning late tonight into tomorrow across the western counties as 850mb winds increase to 55-65kts. Above normal temperatures for the next 30-36 hours...will fall quickly tomorrow afternoon and evening. Heat indices of 75-80F will become windchill in the teens in approximately 12 hours.
  3. HSVWx
    Thank you very much!!!
  4. HSVWx
    Hey thank you JaxJag! Much appreciated!
  5. HSVWx
    Thank you T for that your insight my friend
  6. HSVWx
    Question: IS the upcoming pattern change next week now displayed via most Ensembles with such dramatic daily low morning temps, is this a "cross-polar"/ PV event? Thank you
  7. HSVWx
    Ok John.....Thank you! I do appreciate that sir
  8. HSVWx
    Just a quick question to enhance my winter forecasting skills; Which model ratio is more accurate/better? The standard 10:1 or the Kuchera Ratio? Thank You Tim
  9. HSVWx
    Thank you Sir, much appreciated my friend!
  10. HSVWx
    Ahhh, I understand. Thanks. I sure would like to see Huntsville's number down the road
  11. HSVWx
    What link can I find this at please? Tim
×
×
  • Create New...