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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

10 inches...over a foot on the ground.

But, then again, I am not Carol Yerdon going out every hour.... lol

Well, if shes doing that she isn't measuring correctly and likely over measuring. I have the same suspicion of Lori in Perrysburg. We know she lives in the best spot to get snow in WNY, but you can't have the most snow in every event. A friend of mine works with her husband in the Chautuaqua department of transportation and said she always measures in the highest drifts, but who is to debate someone that lives in a place so remote. There is no one to compare their measurement too, so tough to dispute. I've noticed quite a few of the Cocarahs and Co Op observers rarely keep track of every event. Once I get moved in I will probably start a more accurate log on one of the websites. 
 

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13.5" at the Cabin, Peak reported 14", so not bad. Looks great out.

Finally, the poor folks at Wilderness Lodge right down the road from our place get to open their cross country ski resort for the FIRST time this season on Saturday, after they do some more grooming at let the base freeze up the next couple of nights. They did not open with all the November snow as they dont feel CC skiing and the adjacent hunting are a good mix.

Here is to some sustained cold & snow over the next couple of months.

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Well, if shes doing that she isn't measuring correctly and likely over measuring. I have the same suspicion of Lori in Perrysburg. We know she lives in the best spot to get snow in WNY, but you can't have the most snow in every event. A friend of mine works with her husband in the Chautuaqua department of transportation and said she always measures in the highest drifts, but who is to debate someone that lives in a place so remote. There is no one to compare their measurement too, so tough to dispute. I've noticed quite a few of the Cocarahs and Co Op observers rarely keep track of every event. Once I get moved in I will probably start a more accurate log on one of the websites. 
 

Many locals say she inflates totals and measures much more than she should be. I mean, North Redfield does get lots of snow.....

Maybe next winter I will be more efficient and committed. I am just trying to find my way around living here my first winter. :)

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4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Many locals say she inflates totals and measures much more than she should be. I mean, North Redfield does get lots of snow.....

Maybe next winter I will be more efficient and committed. I am just trying to find my way around living here my first winter. :)

It's tough to keep track when you live in a place like you do. I remember trying to keep track in the Nov 2014 event, it wasn't easy when you have that much snow. Once you get 40" on the ground and you get another 2-4' it's nearly impossible to measure correctly. Always good to get good measurements in top snowbelts though. We can create a better database for lake effect snow lovers like myself and many others on the forum.

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I'll tell you one thing. Just checked weeklies and they're well within accuracy range now. I am getting really excited for the next 2 months. I think we see some epic stuff. My epic call is going to be good, just a few weeks delayed. 6-8 weeks of epicness and I'll really want my yearly Miami trip in early April. 

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7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Still coming down pretty good, I think we add a couple inches,,

Still snowing here...light but steady. Maybe we snag another 1" overnight if this keeps up.

If it weren't for this and the Christmas Eve "miracle" this would be a gruesome 5 weeks starting in December...

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Question for the CNYers (or anybody), when I add this storm to my totals do I bin it as "real" snow or Fake snow? Or split the difference as its sort of a hybrid event? 

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10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll tell you one thing. Just checked weeklies and they're well within accuracy range now. I am getting really excited for the next 2 months. I think we see some epic stuff. My epic call is going to be good, just a few weeks delayed. 6-8 weeks of epicness and I'll really want my yearly Miami trip in early April. 

Better not be dry though...the next week + looks arid...other than maybe a short duration LES event that usually pops up.

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Better not be dry though...the next week + looks arid...other than maybe a short duration LES event that usually pops up.

I'm talking around the 20th and onward. Lots of synoptic chances and even more so on the lake effect end. I see some big time Ontario events coming. Really hoping Erie can pull out a few events before it freezes too, if we finally get a good pattern and its already frozen it would suck. Really wishing we would not be cold and dry these next 4 days. 

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31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's tough to keep track when you live in a place like you do. I remember trying to keep track in the Nov 2014 event, it wasn't easy when you have that much snow. Once you get 40" on the ground and you get another 2-4' it's nearly impossible to measure correctly. Always good to get good measurements in top snowbelts though. We can create a better database for lake effect snow lovers like myself and many others on the forum.

That's for sure. When you get several inches sporadically different times in a day and week so often, it can be a challenge because you're not always around to measure.

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

eps 1-10.png

That's at 10:1 ratios!!! If it's 15:1 which is more likely with the much colder weather that's been predicted, especially February, those totals will be between 40 and 50". Starting to resemble both Feb 2014 and 15. In fact I think KBUF in 15 had 48" that month.

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12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That's at 10:1 ratios!!! If it's 15:1 which is more likely with the much colder weather that's been predicted, especially February, those totals will be between 40 and 50". Starting to resemble both Feb 2014 and 15. In fact I think KBUF in 15 had 48" that month.

It should be good. Just hope we keep the lake open. I haven’t had a lake effect event yet this year. They’ve all been in southern tier. 

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KBUF is now ahead of me for the season 31.2" to my 30.9"... a pretty minuscule difference but one that's pretty surprising to me. Hopefully we can all catch up in the coming weeks as my average by now has to be close to 50" or so.Gonna take a lot of snow in the next 2-3 months to even get to my average of about 105"

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2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

KBUF is now ahead of me for the season 31.2" to my 30.9"... a pretty minuscule difference but one that's pretty surprising to me. Hopefully we can all catch up in the coming weeks as my average by now has to be close to 50" or so.Gonna take a lot of snow in the next 2-3 months to even get to my average of about 105"

I'm only 5" ahead. That's what happens with no lake effect. Holiday Valley has been doing well.

15" for last event and 89" on the year. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Thanks! Same place, Hamburg. I’ve lived in the city, Cheektowaga, Amherst, orchard park, and Hamburg. Hamburg is my favorite.

Yeah, it definitely seems like the ideal place. Close to the city, but far enough south to get better lake effect events! Hopefully, I find myself moving back to Buffalo in 10 years or so and can get a place in the Southtowns :snowing:

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Some cold nights incoming..

Friday
Scattered flurries before 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 15. Wind chill values as low as -10. Northwest wind around 10 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 2. Northwest wind around 6 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -5. Northwest wind around 6 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 0. North wind around 6 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 17.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around -1.
 
SWS
...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

The combination of cold temperatures and persistent wind will make
tonight feel colder than it has been for quite some time. Wind
chills will drop below zero across most of Western New York, with
wind chill values as low as 25 below zero east of Lake Ontario.
The coldest conditions will be late tonight and early Friday
morning.

Frostbite and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.
Make sure to dress properly if you are planning to be outdoors
during this time.

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Holy shit I just checked the models and knew I couldnt be the first person to post about that storm (ROCdave right on it).   This run has to be archived for posterity.  That is 100 percent the quintessential perfect storm for us.  Widespread 18-24+ amounts for the entire area if a run like that ever hit.  WOW.  They would probably drop the B word, that storm track is very similar to storm from March 12th of 2014.  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh174-252.thumb.gif.71d21545642fcd598c0d2724b1c21fd9.gif

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16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Some cold nights incoming..

Friday
Scattered flurries before 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 15. Wind chill values as low as -10. Northwest wind around 10 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 2. Northwest wind around 6 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -5. Northwest wind around 6 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 0. North wind around 6 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 17.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around -1.
 
SWS
...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

The combination of cold temperatures and persistent wind will make
tonight feel colder than it has been for quite some time. Wind
chills will drop below zero across most of Western New York, with
wind chill values as low as 25 below zero east of Lake Ontario.
The coldest conditions will be late tonight and early Friday
morning.

Frostbite and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.
Make sure to dress properly if you are planning to be outdoors
during this time.

Should be good for getting the skating rink set at work.

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Could be some SW out ahead of the front mid-week..

Looks like we could be in for another transient band as flow veerrs NW behind the front..

Gives us something to freshen up the snowpack..

download (3).png

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