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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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We have a 16 Focus Titanium and an 18 Escape SEL, both awesome cars. Both matching metallic white. Average 36 mpg in the Focus and 23 in the Escape. Escape is 4wd and is an absolute beast in the snow. Focus with a good set of snows definitley holds its own though for a compact car. Love them both but thinking about trading in the 16 Focus for a 19 Ranger 4x4, I absolutely loved my old Ranger and the new ones are just sick.

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KBGM disco:

Long period of lake effect snow. Snow amounts could meet
advisory criteria but too early to nail down yet. For now
probably on the low side this period with 2 to 5". Deep
northwest flow on the back side of a deep upper level low.
Saturated layer to 12k ft with a 3k foot dendrite zone in this.
Also adding to this is a short wave Thursday adding to the lift.
Surface Temperatures fall to around 20 Wednesday night then
rise 5 degrees or less Thursday. Winds will be strong at 15 to
20 mph with gusts to around 30. 850mb temperatures fall into the
negative teens so some instability.

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We have a Subaru Forester and a Honda Fit, both with four season tires. The Honda is light and can slide a bit on turns if there’s ice or if there’s more than about ten inches of unplowed snow. The Forester has never given us a problem in any weather, but we’re not going chasing on the Tug with those tires.

Winter is the best, but I love a cool fall as well. I lived in the south for many years, and I can’t stand humid weather with the temp above about 78. Hot and dry is ok, but last summer, while not as bad as the south, was so unpleasant for long stretches that we avoided doing much outside other than the bare minimum of yard work.

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Nice to see a chance for at least some accumulating snow again.

2018 Toyota 4Runner, Kumho Road Venture AT51 tires. Awesome in the snow, sand, and trails. Pretty comfy on the road as well.

Toward top of Pikes Peak back in October.

image.png.caab6c79bba8ec53b79d101d5c367bde.png

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2010 F-250 Diesel, with all season tires. Last year I had a 2011 f-150 4x2 and it was a disaster in most snowfalls and it never left the GTA. The 250 this year was cruising around Muskoka in the New Years snowstorm no problem.  The girlfriend drives a 2012 Hyundai accent hatchback. 

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I think the Tug gets more then NWS is forecasting, they always overperform in these type of events. Also Upslope around Perrysburg will likely get more than a foot too. But again, this is mainly an elevation driven event. However, it has lots of moisture to work with so everyone should see some snow, but favored upslope areas is where 12" is possible. 

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Here is my brand new ride, yet to be tested in the snow ....  it’s 4x4 with studded snows. It should hold its own.  Can’t wait to try her out!

8671E8F4-9ADA-4F22-BE3F-86676EE0E81F.thumb.jpeg.5737148d1f551c969cdb92feb721fffa.jpeg

 

 

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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Ok so back to the car discussion, as I'm pretty certain us folk at the lower elevations on the Niagara Frontier are going to waiting quite some time for any appreciable snows!!! So we have a 2014 dodge grand caravan which I love and hate all at once...Great for traveling and carrying just about anything (the seats stow n go and I can put 10 sheets of drywall or several pieces of furniture as we like to revive old furniture). Hate it because, well, it's a mini-van. The second rig is a 2017 cruze as our economical car. Now to the weather. I am growing pretty despondent here as the latest run of the GFS shows next to zero snow chances for WNY outside of the next couple days for 2 weeks. In fact I also saw on another forum last night the ECMWF 45 snowfall accums and let's just say areas of WNY didn't get above a foot during that time frame. I, like Matt and others, enjoy the summers but love the winters. If this is going to be a fail of a winter snowfall wise that will make for a long year meteorologically speaking.

I think this could be a historically bad winter for BUF-ROC area. It’s just impossible to know if the pattern can change in time for February or early March. It only takes one really robust few weeks to change all this. 

Certainly there isn’t a whole lot to be excited about. The cold snaps also look to result in suppression and come loaded with dry. 

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4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Here is my brand new ride, yet to be tested in the snow ....  it’s 4x4 with studded snows. It should hold its own.  Can’t wait to try her out!

8671E8F4-9ADA-4F22-BE3F-86676EE0E81F.thumb.jpeg.5737148d1f551c969cdb92feb721fffa.jpeg

 

 

Sweet truck. It cost as much as my house! Lol. I just got a 4RUNNER and like you, I’m dying to try out the tires and 4X4. 

Looking through all the posts it’s easy to see what happened- many of us purchased 4X4’s this last year in hopes of snowfall! We jinxed the whole winter

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8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Here is my brand new ride, yet to be tested in the snow ....  it’s 4x4 with studded snows. It should hold its own.  Can’t wait to try her out!

8671E8F4-9ADA-4F22-BE3F-86676EE0E81F.thumb.jpeg.5737148d1f551c969cdb92feb721fffa.jpeg

 

 

That truck is gorgeous. I want a truck pretty bad, but they're so expensive! 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That truck is gorgeous. I want a truck pretty bad, but they're so expensive! 

Thanks!   The prices of trucks are truly astronomical these days.  My last truck was an 04 f150 so I had been holding out for a long time and the time had come.  I'm hoping to have this truck for 10 years though, but it was still a big leap to take.  Absolutely sucks to have a payment again (and a big one at that).  At least I have a reliable ride for the foreseeable future.  

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9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Thanks!   The prices of trucks are truly astronomical these days.  My last truck was an 04 f150 so I had been holding out for a long time and the time had come.  I'm hoping to have this truck for 10 years though, but it was still a big leap to take.  Absolutely sucks to have a payment again (and a big one at that).  At least I have a reliable ride for the foreseeable future.  

Any takes on an older Toyota Tacoma? 

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Verbatim not much different from 6z except south of syracuse, big uptick for that area..

Pretty much double digits for all of oswego county with a max of 15" a couple miles to my north..

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Really bad setup for my location, thinking 1-2" max. 

Me to you will be the jackpot....... for snowfall minimums lol! I hate these set ups from West Seneca to Hamburg, even the northtowns will do better than us once the flow goes NW and they catch some streamers of Huron. 

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I thought the tug usually uplsopes pretty good during NW events, just not so far this year..

Like the event a couple years back..

 Northwest winds were strong through most of the event, 
producing significant blowing and drifting snow and very difficult 
travel.

 

Very persistent 
upslope flow into the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau played 
a critical role in producing the highest totals from this event, 
with a few locations seeing 3 to 4+ feet of snow over a 3 day 
period.  

A_new.png

 

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Tug does the best in W flow. NW flow is for Fulton and Syracuse. That above event was mainly W flow. Look at lake Ontario. There is only a small portion of lake ontario included in NW flow for Tug, most is orographic lift from being high elevations. But you have to get pretty high to get anything of note for NW flow in tug. 

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