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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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1 hour ago, CARDC79 said:

Let’s have this thing exist at D4 range. Then I’m in. 

Yep, if this goes like typical tracking we'll lose the storm on the models at day 5. If the stars are aligned and we actually get the storm, we'll see it re-appear at day 4.

But to be fair, that didn't happen for the December storm. The FV3 had it inside day 10 all the way to go time.   

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1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Anyone have analogs for the Mon/Tuesday deal? I saw a few days ago that March 1-3 1980 was showing up. Doesn't really look like that as depicted.

No, but March 1, 1960 and March 10,1993 are both in the top 10 for the 6-10 day analogs. We all know what happened a few days later in 1993 and 1960.

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32 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Ah, southern Wake screwjob.  Cold Rain will be happy.

I wouldn't put to much stock in any individual snow map in this range they are going to be all over the place the next 3-4 days.....personally if this thing is going to trend away or get to warm etc I need it to go ahead and do that now....what will suck is it showing significant snow till 72 hrs out then trending away that would be typical though.

 

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2 hours ago, JoshM said:

0z Euro is rain for everyone, very warm

This is the control run and there were still at least 10 ens with warning criteria events in MBY and over half the ens had a trace or better

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019022600_204_480_215_m0.thumb.png.9e35dabef463de925f62f738829399dc.png

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From RAH:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... Overall trends of the guidance is for more in the way of focus of rainfall along a wavy frontal boundary from the Gulf Coast into the SE states late this week into early next week. In addition, trends along with more ensemble model solutions suggest that some of the very cold air that has been locked up in the Midwest to the Great Lakes will finally spill southward into our region later this weekend into next week. It is linking the cold and the storminess together that would be problematic, as more ensemble members show. However, the forecast confidence is still low for the specific details over our region, especially with the amount and depth of the cold air that will try to push south, down the eastern seaboard by Sunday and Monday. At the same time, the timing of a formidable storm system that is expected to track along the Gulf Coast into the SE states early next week is still uncertain. For now, we will continue to forecast a gradual trend toward colder temperatures late in the weekend into early next week, with an increasing chance of rain (for now). Until then, a couple of bouts of hybrid CAD events with some up and down temperatures each day. QPF will remain fairly light with these systems, until possibly early next week.

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5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

From RAH:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... Overall trends of the guidance is for more in the way of focus of rainfall along a wavy frontal boundary from the Gulf Coast into the SE states late this week into early next week. In addition, trends along with more ensemble model solutions suggest that some of the very cold air that has been locked up in the Midwest to the Great Lakes will finally spill southward into our region later this weekend into next week. It is linking the cold and the storminess together that would be problematic, as more ensemble members show. However, the forecast confidence is still low for the specific details over our region, especially with the amount and depth of the cold air that will try to push south, down the eastern seaboard by Sunday and Monday. At the same time, the timing of a formidable storm system that is expected to track along the Gulf Coast into the SE states early next week is still uncertain. For now, we will continue to forecast a gradual trend toward colder temperatures late in the weekend into early next week, with an increasing chance of rain (for now). Until then, a couple of bouts of hybrid CAD events with some up and down temperatures each day. QPF will remain fairly light with these systems, until possibly early next week.

The 00Z Euro had 33 out of 50 ens members showing at least a trace or more IMBY......with 8-10 being warning criteria events.....several of those are monsters for the whole state.....sure would be nice to get hammered Sun-Tues then by in the md 60's by the weekend. Still this storm is a week away and well chances are by the time next week gets here this thing will be 50-60 and rain....

 

 

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GFS has a nice little secondary hit Wed, especially in central and eastern NC as a low bombs well offshore.....all in all still a good hit for NC 3-6" for most everyone.....also decent for northern 3rd of SC....

gfs_asnow_seus_35.thumb.png.d85d0863c37ee74fbbde62abf6a89158.png

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22 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

GFS has a nice little secondary hit Wed, especially in central and eastern NC as a low bombs well offshore.....all in all still a good hit for NC 3-6" for most everyone.....also decent for northern 3rd of SC....

gfs_asnow_seus_35.thumb.png.d85d0863c37ee74fbbde62abf6a89158.png

More of the models are trying to show two events. That would be fun, and as you said above then take us right into spring for the weekend. 

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I do not like the Canadian or the 00Z GFS showing the southern wake special (rain).  Hard to get excited when you know the NW trend is coming.  We are still so far away.
However, I do like that the signal is still there!  That's all I really focus on at this point.

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So it seems most of the operational models are showing two event:

0Z Euro & CMC - Would have the first event too warm but provide a wintery solution for the second. 

6z GFS & FV3 - Would have both systems drop wintery precip across at least NC northwards. The GFS has more snow with both systems with snow down into SC for the second event

 

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I do not like the Canadian or the 00Z GFS showing the southern wake special (rain).  Hard to get excited when you know the NW trend is coming.  We are still so far away.
However, I do like that the signal is still there!  That's all I really focus on at this point.

The CMC would have everybody rain for the first event. The second would be a light wintery event with more of a freezing rain signal for most of Wake County.   

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Funny how things can change in 24 hours. Yesterday, things looked great because the GFS showed a big hit for NC, and then the Euro came on board. yesterday was the first time they both showed a good storm for NC. Then things started going the other way with the runs last night. I guess there is time for it to come back around, but now it looks the models are showing less and less of a hit with the runs since last night. 

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah, bad turn for the models. It may not turn back favorable but it still has time to do so. On to the euro..

The sad thing is that is the first time really since the December storm that we have seen the models actually agree on a storm and be consistent with the outcome for a whole day. I really thought we were onto something with the Euro jumping on board. I think with the December storm we were worried about the models going north with some runs, but then they came back a little further south to give us that big hit. I think I am recalling that north shift and then back south correctly. If so, maybe we can get that to happen again with this threat. 

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16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The sad thing is that is the first time really since the December storm that we have seen the models actually agree on a storm and be consistent with the outcome for a whole day. I really thought we were onto something with the Euro jumping on board. I think with the December storm we were worried about the models going north with some runs, but then they came back a little further south to give us that big hit. I think I am recalling that north shift and then back south correctly. If so, maybe we can get that to happen again with this threat. 

It's definitely not over. We've seen the models back off in the past just to come back as we get to the day 4 period.  

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11 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It's definitely not over. We've seen the models back off in the past just to come back as we get to the day 4 period.  

Yeah, I know with the December storm it really wasn't until 72 hours out that it looked good again for parts of NC. 

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10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It's definitely not over. We've seen the models back off in the past just to come back as we get to the day 4 period.  

It’s funny, wave 2 around the 6th, had a lot of potential and the cold would likely be plentiful, so now, our moisture is gone! Fitting end to the last possible “ threat” of winter! 

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Seems with the GFS that low is more of slightly inland coastal hugger across SC then off the NC capes.  Cold does not really come down until after it has passed.  Yesterday it was further south and pulling in cold

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