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December Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 28th is a virtual lock ice storm 

LOL--locking in anything 7 days out is a hoot.  Locking in something as tenuous as ice?  :unsure:

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think your gradient pattern will work out for you either. 

There's just winners and losers; don't get caught on the wrong side of that line.  Sometimes gradients favor CNE and NNE.  

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I would prob wait until at least Sunday and then check back in to see what the 28th system looks like. It's 7 days out. 12/23 last year looked like a torching cutter until about 3-4 days out. I remember me, Scooter, and Jerry were all talking at the GTG and we said "it is still a cutter but honestly if you looked at the 72 hour panel, you'd think a big overrunning event was in store 24 hours later"...literally the very next cycle the thing trended way more CAD. That's often how that stuff works. 

You just have to wait until closer in on these sometimes. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are completely done with cutters like today . 100%

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 28th is a virtual lock ice storm 

I love when we get to this point of a winter and the KFS is just trying so hard to force winter on the people.

It always takes longer than the KFS model thinks but it's usually not denied.  Time to stand up and Preach.  The congregation will start to pay attention.

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42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would prob wait until at least Sunday and then check back in to see what the 28th system looks like. It's 7 days out. 12/23 last year looked like a torching cutter until about 3-4 days out. I remember me, Scooter, and Jerry were all talking at the GTG and we said "it is still a cutter but honestly if you looked at the 72 hour panel, you'd think a big overrunning event was in store 24 hours later"...literally the very next cycle the thing trended way more CAD. That's often how that stuff works. 

You just have to wait until closer in on these sometimes. 

Ha yep. I remember that. Best ice event I’ve seen. Pretty special. 

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51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just meant the pattern look favorable for ice from Christmas until the first week of January with the South East Ridge and the northern Jets s Canada. 

It's Not worth it to focus on anything specific

I wasn't referring to your post when I said don't look at things until Sunday. You were musing the general pattern versus that specific event. Kevin was locking in an ice storm 7 days out...that's really what I was responding to and probably should h e quoted the post.  

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The cutter seems inevitable. GFS with the headfake, but in its defense...that was far enough out where all models have that headfake. We may go through a 2014 period as I said earlier with a mix of a little snow and maybe a cutter or two. Next week could start as a little snow or mix, but probably gets mild and turns to rain for many. Still time to get a more CAD solution..but seems like a liquid scenario is inevitable. 

Massive changes again to the good later in the 11-15 day. You can see how the run to run adjustments are likely due to Pacific reshuffling and the vortex split in the stratosphere.

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The cutter seems inevitable. GFS with the headfake, but in its defense...that was far enough out where all models have that headfake. We may go through a 2014 period as I said earlier with a mix of a little snow and maybe a cutter or two. Next week could start as a little snow or mix, but probably gets mild and turns to rain for many. Still time to get a more CAD solution..but seems like a liquid scenario is inevitable. 

Massive changes again to the good later in the 11-15 day. You can see how the run to run adjustments are likely due to Pacific reshuffling and the vortex split in the stratosphere.

What a crap month (4-weeks) we will have had.  

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3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

What a crap month (4-weeks) we will have had.  

Yeah. That's been my issue with this winter. December has blown..really since Thanksgiving or so. Missed opportunities. Sometimes that happens..it is what it is. I'd accept it if we had the typical GOAK trough that makes it more mild..but we had some bad luck. That looks to change somewhat. Bigger changes probably in Jan.

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25 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Forfeited month #1 and counting. 

First flake to last Flake JB!!  Patience!!  There’s a reason why March is snowier than December...and that's cuz winter is only 12 hours old...

 

dont get get caught up in this MET Winter nonsense...some of our Absolute best winters have crap Decembers...(2010-2011,2014-2015).

 

Would you like it better if December was good, but then January and February(the heart of winter) completely sucked??  Would that be better???  Not in my opinion it wouldn’t.   If things change around...this December will be forgotten about faster than A Hobo goes after a Ham sandwich!   

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

First flake to last Flake JB!!  Patience!!  There’s a reason why March is snowier than December...and that's cuz winter is only 12 hours old...

 

dont get get caught up in this MET Winter nonsense...some of our Absolute best winters have crap Decembers...(2010-2011,2014-2015).

 

Woukf you like it better if December was good, but then January and February(the heart of winter) completely sucked??  Would that be better???  Not in my opinion it wouldn’t.   If things change around...this December will be forgotten about faster than A Hobo goes after a Ham sandwich!   

If course one could have a great November and the a crappy d-m.  :)

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If things change around.

Of course a rip-roarin’ J-M would make all of our winter worries go away. I just hope this doesn’t become a will-should-could-didn’t kinda winter. The threat of a head fake is what worries me.  But of course we’ll see. It’s just that this has been one of the more promising collective winter forecasts in a long while and it would really sting to watch it duck and bob till April. 

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2 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Of course a rip-roarin’ J-M would make all of our winter worries go away. I just hope this doesn’t become a will-should-could-didn’t kinda winter. The threat of a head fake is what worries me.  But of course we’ll see. 

I think we’re gonna get our chances.  If we whiff on most all of them...then we all can say the winter was a (woulda coulda shoulda) total dud.

 

Winter is 12 hours old...lots and lots of time(literally a whole Winter season to be exact) to see what does and doesn’t play out, and that’s a fact!  

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5 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Of course a rip-roarin’ J-M would make all of our winter worries go away. I just hope this doesn’t become a will-should-could-didn’t kinda winter. The threat of a head fake is what worries me.  But of course we’ll see. It’s just that this has been one of the more promising collective winter forecasts in a long while and it would really sting to watch it duck and bob till April. 

Long range is voodoo. Nobody should always buy all in to winter. While the signs point to a good one...little nuances that dictate luck simply cannot be determined. So one should always approach it with a reasonable expectation.

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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Perfectly Put Scott.  And there it is in a nutshell.   

I always cringe at how confident we think we are at times. The big picture is that the ENSO State we have is favorable for us. But a place like Logan could get 50” or 100” and that depends on luck. That’s a hell of a variance, so it’s worth putting that into perspective. 

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40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I always cringe at how confident we think we are at times. The big picture is that the ENSO State we have is favorable for us. But a place like Logan could get 50” or 100” and that depends on luck. That’s a hell of a variance, so it’s worth putting that into perspective. 

Well, Logan getting 50" doesn't mean much given measurements lol

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