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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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1 minute ago, griteater said:

18z EPS Mean compared to the 12z EPS Mean was a bit more amplified with the wave...a little north with the sfc and 850mb low tracks.  It was a little warmer from Bama thru TN again as the low tracks across the gulf coast while maintain the relative cold east of the Apps...so it continues to increase its recognition of the damming high to the north.  The closed off 850mb low on the mean tracks from Birmingham, AL to Cape Hatteras.  That track is very good for the N NC Mtns into SW VA, but problematic for warm nosing aloft from the upstate into parts of central NC

What did the 18z mean look like?

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

18z EPS Mean compared to the 12z EPS Mean was a bit more amplified with the wave...a little north with the sfc and 850mb low tracks.  It was a little warmer from Bama thru TN again as the low tracks across the gulf coast while maintain the relative cold east of the Apps...so it continues to increase its recognition of the damming high to the north.  The closed off 850mb low on the mean tracks from Birmingham, AL to Cape Hatteras.  That track is very good for the N NC Mtns into SW VA, but problematic for warm nosing aloft from the upstate into parts of central NC

Thanks grit, hopefully that corrects south tonight. It seems to be going back and forth, bit north, bit south.

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49 minutes ago, Poimen said:

The NAM finishes with an impressive 1041 mb HP over IL at hour 84. sub zero 850 temps well into SC and dew points into the teens in northern NC. 

yes it's the 84 hour nam but fwiw, looks like precip would start as snow or snow/sleet/rain mix by the time it gets to the savannah river sat morning.  Nam has temps into the mid to upper 30s, dewpoints in the upper 20s..with even colder/drier air and ne flow off the surface. Nam sure looks a lot more promising than the gfs still. 

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9 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I'm amazed at the GFS weakening that high. None of the other models are doing it. I suspect it just sucks at modelling these highs.

i pretty much had the exact same thought in my head...the differences at 925mb for example between it and the nam are something over the carolinas. At hour 78 , nam has northerly flow and 925mb temps 5c colder while the gfs has southwesterly flow at 925mb over the carolinas. Nam is about 4mb higher with surface pressures over the mid atlantic than the gfs at 84 hours. 

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Just now, Lookout said:

i pretty much had the exact same thought in my head...the differences at 925mb for example between it and the nam are something over the carolinas. At hour 78 for example, nam has northerly flow and 925mb temps 5c colder while the gfs has southwesterly flow at 925mb over the carolinas. Nam is about 4mb higher with surface pressures over the mid atlantic than the gfs at 84 hours. 

We def know brother how that plays out in the end. The nam kicks the gfs a** all day in that regard. 

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