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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I look no doubt about it. But I backed off overanalyzing every detail and wasting my energy and time on anything more than a week out for now. The fact the op is almost at that 7 day mark is somewhat encouraging tho.

GEFS look encouraging

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I look no doubt about it. But I backed off overanalyzing every detail and wasting my energy and time on anything more than a week out for now. The fact the op is almost at that 7 day mark is somewhat encouraging tho.

Congrats. We're probably in the same age range and to piss away time (and stress...believe it or not) for nothing is stupid. Hell, if I was retired and had a boat-load of money...it would be a cool but a tad stressful hobby but still cool. Unfortunately I'm not rich...

If you like weather, you have to get yourself more involved w/T-Storms during the Spring/Summer rather than hibernate. They are quite fun. There's no 7-10 day outlook (for the most part) ...just potential. Sitting on the back deck (enjoying a cold one) hearing that distant rumble of thunder moving in, checking radar and seeing a bunch of "red" is pretty cool. 

No question winter/snow rules but there are other avenues...   

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29 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Congrats. We're probably in the same age range and to piss away time (and stress...believe it or not) for nothing is stupid. Hell, if I was retired and had a boat-load of money...it would be a cool but a tad stressful hobby but still cool. Unfortunately I'm not rich...

If you like weather, you have to get yourself more involved w/T-Storms during the Spring/Summer rather than hibernate. They are quite fun. There's no 7-10 day outlook (for the most part) ...just potential. Sitting on the back deck (enjoying a cold one) hearing that distant rumble of thunder moving in, checking radar and seeing a bunch of "red" is pretty cool. 

No question winter/snow rules but there are other avenues...   

T-storms were fun until one of them bit me on the toe. May 22nd, 2015...

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3 hours ago, JTA66 said:

We're gonna have to buy Ralph a new box of nails.

Those nails are firmly in place. I'm talking for imby and irt a SECS which it doesnt meet that criteria this is just a slop nuisance event. A 1-3" "thump" to sleet/fzra to rain ending maybe as a period of snow Sunday with little to no additional accums. That's my story for Warminster and I'm sticking to it. 

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I can see it now southern slider threat to Florida
 

This was once fun. I had a bad feeling after the nov dump it would be a long frustrating winter. Then again we are not in Boston.....

Guess ice skating might be in order.....hockey on the lake.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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5 hours ago, RedSky said:

GFS has a cutter on the same date the euro is showing the article circle over eastern north america lol

 

Euro idea and many others now backed off the pv dip significantly. Of bigger concern the GEPS now show my worst fear with the WAR continuing to sustain and never really progressing into the nao region. It essentially shows the same general N Atl theme we've seen off and on since Sept with the WAR often establishing itself and then just rolling over. Until that changes my area and SE are going to continue to see rainy solutions with these bigger systems while 'far' N W will cash in with sleet zone sandwiched between. If u see the pattern tendency we are doing better down here with flatter and more minor events this year....and by better'  I mean c-2 or 3 inch types that are all snow. Nov was a fluke imo and an Arcbambault where we wer actually deep neg NAO flipping to positive.

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Going to need February to spiral us into a new dimension of snow just to make up for this horrible winter so far. Eliminating the November storm gets me to a whopping 1.25" on the season. I do believe February will produce based on some other met forecasts. I'm too tired of this winter to draw my own conclusions at this point so I'm simply riding along with other forecasts.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

I think winter is done and we're in for cold dry then warm up wet repeat for the rest of winter. Maybe we ll get lucky...

More than likely....pattern tendencies cannot be denied. Starting to hear some of the pro mets and pattern-change activists raising the white flags sporadically. 

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Winter of yore incoming....

 

image.png.845f0e9b34b94be089d4a34247700eec.png

Well thats like 10-15 maybe for philly. And that between now an early March. I would exactly call that winter of yore.  If thats all we get this winter will barely reach normal snowfal for winter 

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2 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Well thats like 10-15 maybe for philly. And that between now an early March. I would exactly call that winter of yore.  If thats all we get this winter will barely reach normal snowfal for winter 

True but it is only the mean...I still like our chances at a well above normal year it will only take 2 big storms and we could be there....

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1 hour ago, Stormman96 said:

Well thats like 10-15 maybe for philly. And that between now an early March. I would exactly call that winter of yore.  If thats all we get this winter will barely reach normal snowfal for winter 

I remember when that same exact forecast map had 55"+ for philly between Jan 17 and mid Feb so yeah

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This is workable but alas....a LR dream and an op run. Dr No is up to it's Lucy shtick. Last night drops the TPV hammer today gone. Now a Mauler tracking under us and exploding on the coast. Hmmm, I wonder if it will be there at 0z?

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png

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