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Baroclinic Zone

2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE

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Heavy snow, 31.0° F. Very graupelly though. West winds have kicked in and mixed me out. Max was 32.6° F at time of FROPA, still glaze on the trees. 

My Davis anemometer was frozen in place so I had to tap it to get free again. 

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Nice wet 33-34F paste going on out there... sticking to every little twig.  Only a few tenths so far of slush but it's stacking on the elevated objects.

Went to pick out dinner with huge aggregates coming down and man, this winter has been something else.  The snowbanks have been huge for what seems like months, with the need to pull out slowly and try to look around the snowbanks for traffic... walkways are like waist to shoulder high banks lining them and roads are snow covered with slush and the morning sleet/snow. 

Sloppy storm and despite a bunch of these events with no real snowpack change in depth, it just adds even more substance to the snow and the snowbanks.  Like a mini-Tahoe style pack that's just moisture logged and deep.  The only problem is spring will be real sloppy with this much SWE locked up as pure ice and then dense snow on top.

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That lit up quickly.  Flow turns cyclonic W/WSW and the residual low/mid level moisture needs to get wrung out.

Still, later on should see the stronger wind max disrupt the flow and blow it downwind.  Decent downwind drift probably from radar too with VAD showing 50kts at 6,000ft.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Nice wet 33-34F paste going on out there... sticking to every little twig.  Only a few tenths so far of slush but it's stacking on the elevated objects.

Went to pick out dinner with huge aggregates coming down and man, this winter has been something else.  The snowbanks have been huge for what seems like months, with the need to pull out slowly and try to look around the snowbanks for traffic... walkways are like waist to shoulder high banks lining them and roads are snow covered with slush and the morning sleet/snow. 

Sloppy storm and despite a bunch of these events with no real snowpack change in depth, it just adds even more substance to the snow and the snowbanks.  Like a mini-Tahoe style pack that's just moisture logged and deep.  The only problem is spring will be real sloppy with this much SWE locked up as pure ice and then dense snow on top.

Haha just posted the same thing to the NNE thread. Beautiful snow tonight, it's like spray paint 

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Wow

Marquette has seen close to 100 inches of snow this month.

I wish I lived in a snowy climate

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33 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow

Marquette has seen close to 100 inches of snow this month.

I wish I lived in a snowy climate

That was 2015 here.

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30 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow

Marquette has seen close to 100 inches of snow this month.

I wish I lived in a snowy climate

I mean snow is great.... But it gets annoying after awhile having to deal with a huge pack and constant accumulation.... I'm glad we have summer too... In fact I wish we had 5 months of a 2' pack and cold and then 7 months of 85 degrees with TSTMs daily

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12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That was 2015 here.

I would love to experience that.

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

AWT... not quite ready for prime time.

Do they still continue to update/improve/tinker with the legacy GFS in the meantime?

They will not. The GFS and GEFS are frozen on development.

If something were to actually break down in either they would fix it to keep operational, but no improvements are being done.

It's a bit ironic that a problem with the clown maps is one of the reasons why it is being delayed. But after that and the low level cold bias are fixed, it will take another 30 day stability test until it's operational. So we're basically April at the earliest.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol...many improved parameters and then they nonchalantly slide this nugget in...

"-The model forecasts exhibit a cold bias in the lower atmosphere
that became more prominent after late September 2018."

 

It may be good news that it appears as we near the cool season, because that's when they typically turn some of those parameterizations on. That could mean an easy fix.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

They will not. The GFS and GEFS are frozen on development.

If something were to actually break down in either they would fix it to keep operational, but no improvements are being done.

It's a bit ironic that a problem with the clown maps is one of the reasons why it is being delayed. But after that and the low level cold bias are fixed, it will take another 30 day stability test until it's operational. So we're basically April at the earliest.

Hopefully it improves... it has been horrendous this winter.  Maybe it will Engage in Sping

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I mean the more I think about it the more I'm blown away that clown maps essentially ended the FV3 implementation. That probably goes to show you how many HIGH-END users look at the snow maps. :yikes:

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

lol you're telling me Tornado Alley is at a higher risk of tornadoes? Bold call, Accuweather.

That's is as ridiculous as their cold and snowy Northeast forecasts, but an exact number of tornadoes? Come on.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

That's is as ridiculous as their cold and snowy Northeast forecasts, but an exact number of tornadoes? Come on.

Whatever can drive people to their ad based crappy website.   They used to be pretty respectable

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Just wanted to drop by to say, “hello”, to all my NE friends and tell you I’m really rooting for all of you to get a KU before the season concludes.  Will be surprised if the period of 3/3/19 to 3/15/19 doesn’t produce at least a warning event for SNE...and a possible blizzard.  Been waiting all season in hopes of chasing the big dog/KU and/or blizzard in SNE.  Been pretty discouraging as I intentionally passed on a couple significant events closer to home in expectation of a much bigger event up here.  Ironically, the timing of a prospective big event may very well occur when I’m unable to chase.  Specifically, I’ve already booked a trip from March 4 to the 14th back to the Florida Panhandle for a last family vacation prior to the birth of our baby, and to document the progress of Mexico Beach 5 months after Michael.  

Regardless of how things develop synoptically during the upcoming period, I’ll still be following the progression and hoping it manifests into a huge event for this sub forum! :)

Tony

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