Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Even EPS projections of air mass temps are really not a big deviation from normal in our hood. The pattern is full of short waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Wicked storm next week with rain and wind with snow to our south lol. Not a bad setup for snow on the 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wicked storm next week with rain and wind with snow to our south lol. Not a bad setup for snow on the 18 I think that cutter or very unusual trajectory of that storm will be the one that reshuffles the pattern back to more favorable conditions for snow lovers and traditional winter enthusiast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wicked storm next week with rain and wind with snow to our south lol. Not a bad setup for snow on the 18 Haha that’s out of the 09-10 playbook. Supression depression then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It would pretty almost unheard of for the pattern not to flip to much colder at some point by February. Only the super ninos seem to have warm/mild the way through. Other ninos tend to flip either in January or February. Weaker modoki ninos are even more likely to flip and usually it's a harsher period of cold/snow too. I don't think the pattern locks until mid January, but I'm not saying its going to be 2006-07 until then....there will be no period like that season and we will have snow events between now and mid January, but I think that is when winter's harshest stretch sets in. The pattern may be a bit variable until then. Like other's, I think the last week of the year is out next real event...not unlike 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 For the EPS’s huggers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12z EURO is showing an amplified northern stream, with an arctic shortwave diving southward, and positioned more west than previous runs. I think the second storm is still in question. EURO could show this second storm comes closer to the New England coastline and inverted trough impacting eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 35 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: For the EPS’s huggers What about for GEFS? I’d be careful of using the past 90 days to predict a two week period in a different season is going to bias warm. I’d say the same for any guidance. It’s also not just about temperature. The H5 hemispheric pattern needs to be taken into account too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Euro is a little better with the inv trough. Would give the cape a little snow verbatim compared to 00z. Hopefully that builds and the gfs holds onto it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro is a little better with the inv trough. Would give the cape a little snow verbatim compared to 00z. Hopefully that builds and the gfs holds onto it. I agree that shortwave trough is quite intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Where’s Pope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Euro says cutter at mid month going under us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Where’s Pope? Out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is a little better with the inv trough. Would give the cape a little snow verbatim compared to 00z. Hopefully that builds and the gfs holds onto it. Theres def some intense shortwaves in the flow next week. There's another one right behind it that tries to give some light snow for Thursday. Wouldn't be shocking if some measurable snows happen somewhere...esp for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Euro says helluva way to run a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, rimetree said: Euro says cutter at mid month going under us Yeah. Unfortunately there's zero cold air around when it does. Heavy rains right into NNE despite a perfect track. 1994-esque. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro says helluva way to run a torch. Shades of 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Shades of 1994. Lots of model volatility run to run. When does the torch start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Lots of model volatility run to run. When does the torch start. 12/14ish? The storm is def all over the place but its probably going to be warm regardless of where it tracks. We lose the polar jet up into Canada for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12/14ish? The storm is def all over the place but its probably going to be warm regardless of where it tracks. We lose the polar jet up into Canada for a time. This December has been an exercise in how not to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This December has been an exercise in how not to snow. Lol it’s only December 7th. Raindancewx getting to you?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It would pretty almost unheard of for the pattern not to flip to much colder at some point by February. Only the super ninos seem to have warm/mild the way through. Other ninos tend to flip either in January or February. Weaker modoki ninos are even more likely to flip and usually it's a harsher period of cold/snow too. Oh Will, you know how this game goes...weenies will ride this post or die...cant wait to see what form this post comes back in... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Shades of 1994. 94-95 analog...called it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Theres def some intense shortwaves in the flow next week. There's another one right behind it that tries to give some light snow for Thursday. Wouldn't be shocking if some measurable snows happen somewhere...esp for coastal areas. Could we be talking about advisory level snows or warning snows Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Watch this third arctic shortwave in the northern stream flow, it could amplify and dig south of the region, this could provide the area with its own snow shield and moisture source from the ocean storm that develops in 48 hours over the NC coastline or just offshore. Watch this system midweek, could be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Still have the coating in the shade and on the deck. Euro seems to be struggling in the chaos. Cold week ahead . Lots to watch. Nothing taken verbatim until we see consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Pig know his stay is not long so he’s gonna make us pay even if just a bit. Pig with FOMO.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Could we be talking about advisory level snows or warning snows Will? I wouldn't be talking any of that stuff yet. It might be nothing or just some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't be talking any of that stuff yet. It might be nothing or just some flurries. Will, that arctic shortwave keeps moving further west across Manitoba, Canada now on the models. I think it could mean serious business if it drops south through the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/index.php?metarIds=Kclt+&hoursStr=most+recent+only&std_trans=standard&num_metars=number&submit_metars=Retrieve rain in Charlotte. 42/35. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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