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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11

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Last few posts got me thinking, kinda seems like the stuff moving north towards Chicagoland/Rockford etc might pose a threat of kicking off as rain at first. I say that solely from looking at 22z OBS for the state and not much else, so I may very well be off my rocker, but the possibility is piquing my interest.

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Just now, Kaner88 said:

Last few posts got me thinking, kinda seems like the stuff moving north towards Chicagoland/Rockford etc might pose a threat of kicking off as rain at first. I say that solely from looking at 22z OBS for the state and not much else, so I may very well be off my rocker, but the possibility is piquing my interest.

I’d say that’s acurate.  Dews here are 34 and temps nearly 36 so it may take a little bit. 

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1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said:

I’d say that’s acurate.  Dews here are 34 and temps nearly 36 so it may take a little bit. 

33 degrees with 31 dewpoint IMBY (have a few outdoor sensors set up) and the wind has really started to pick up. Someone is going to miss out on a few inches of snow by starting off as rain first. 

Nice problem to have for the first storm of the year huh? :-)

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10 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

Last few posts got me thinking, kinda seems like the stuff moving north towards Chicagoland/Rockford etc might pose a threat of kicking off as rain at first. I say that solely from looking at 22z OBS for the state and not much else, so I may very well be off my rocker, but the possibility is piquing my interest.

IP in DKB currently 

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3 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said:

Rain changing to snow in northwestern McDonough and northern Hancock counties. Here she comes. Give me your best shot, winter!

its cool to watch the rain/snow line surge SE with the convective cooling....but will it stall now for a bit?..its only 15 miles NW of me it seems

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8 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

33 degrees with 31 dewpoint IMBY (have a few outdoor sensors set up) and the wind has really started to pick up. Someone is going to miss out on a few inches of snow by starting off as rain first. 

Nice problem to have for the first storm of the year huh? :-)

Oh the suspense is killing me.  Precip knocking on doorstep.  Someone please tell me this will be snow

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

its cool to watch the rain/snow line surge SE with the convective cooling....but will it stall now for a bit?..its only 15 miles NW of me it seems

It's entirely possible, but the forecasts in the area have most of the snow dump during the night anyway, so if we get any snow before 6 pm, I mean...that's additional snowfall. Here's the map.

snowmap.PNG

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RELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL  
427 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2018  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0420 PM     SNOW             3 WNW BULL VALLEY       42.33N 88.40W  
11/25/2018  M6.8 INCH        MCHENRY            IL   COCORAHS           
  
               
  
0400 PM     SNOW             2 NE ROCKFORD AIRPORT   42.22N 89.07W  
11/25/2018  E6.5 INCH        WINNEBAGO          IL   PUBLIC             
  
            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF 6 TO 7 INCHES IN SOUTH   
            ROCKFORD.   

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4 minutes ago, homedis said:

Radar showing some changeover to snow already near Joliet. Not sure how accurate that is but its interesting.

The convective cooling is battling warm air being drawn north from the low...you can see the bright returns( sleet or wet flakes just aloft)  trying to battle their way back north 

 

see Fulton county SW of PIA and Lasalle county

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16 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Oh the suspense is killing me.  Precip knocking on doorstep.  Someone please tell me this will be snow

That should be snow once it gets to areas like O'Hare and n/w (can't rule out mix right at onset).  The bigger question is what happens farther south in Cook co and how long it takes to flip.  Some models hang up the transition zone longer than others.  

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

The convective cooling is battling warm air being drawn north from the low...you can see the bright returns( sleet or wet flakes just aloft)  trying to battle their way back north 

 

see Fulton county SW of PIA and Lasalle county

It's a battle for sure.. unfortunately the WAA usually wins out temporarily

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