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NJwx85

11/15-11/16 Coastal Storm Observation Thread

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35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

At least social media hyped this so most people weren't caught off guard. Sad to say that's where most people get their forecasts these days

Props to all those like Anthony and a few others here who thought this thing could perform. It really has. I'm eyeballing around three maybe four. Looking better than most of the storms in these parts than last winter....no changeover yet. Nice front end dump. My only concern is a superstitious one; in years when we've seen significant Nov snow in these parts, it has been pretty uneventful the rest of the winter. In 2012 we did get some of the Feb blizzard, but in 89 IIRC that was it for the year. Means nothing, I know....

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah when an inch is expected and you get 2" in an hour things get messy.

They are out in my town and they did pretreat. Our property taxes at work...

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Props to all those like Anthony and a few others here who thought this thing could perform. It really has. I'm eyeballing around three maybe four. Looking better than most of the storms in these parts than last winter....no changeover yet. Nice front end dump. My only concern is a superstitious one; in years when we've seen significant Nov snow in these parts, it has been pretty uneventful the rest of the winter. In 2012 we did get some of the Feb blizzard, but in 89 IIRC that was it for the year. Means nothing, I know....

The other night I was bored and did some research math, when NYC gets 3" or more they average like 36" it would've been higher but I had to exclude 95-96 when 2.9" fell.

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Took me 35 min to get home (10 miles, usually a 15-20 min trip) and that was back roads - those poor souls on major highways looked stuck per Google Maps. As of 3 pm the Metuchen snowglobe has received 4.0" of heavy wet snow and it's still snowing heavily - looks like we may actually get that 6", as the snow/rain/sleet line looks like it's still down in Monmouth County - holy overperforming snowstorm Batman!!  NB reporting 3" an hour ago, Philly reporting 3" an hour ago and my friend in Medford (NW Burlington Co) has 4" as of 3 pm, so we're likely to see widespread 3-6" along the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC.

As of 4 pm, 5" here in Metuchen and still snowing moderately to heavily, although smalller flakes (had huge flakes earlier). Looks like 6-7" is possible with the snow/rain line looking like it's at the border of Monmouth and Middlesex, at least 1-2 hours away, I think. Just shoveled and I rescind my earlier comment about it being heavy and wet (made from just driving through it) - it's more "standard" to me - maybe 10:1 ratio snow - can make snowballs, but it's not soupy by any stretch

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

HORRENDOUS road conditions. Heading back to LB and pulled over in Wantagh. Still puking snow here. 

So bad.  An hour to go from Massapequa to Merrick.

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image.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1650
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

   Areas affected...Pennsylvania...New York...Southern New England

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 152139Z - 160345Z

   SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow will continue across Pennsylvania and
   northern New Jersey late this afternoon. Snow will also continue to
   develop across southeast New York and southern New England over the
   next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low
   in the lower Ohio Valley with anticyclonic southwesterly mid-level
   flow over the Northeast. A pronounced dry slot is located across the
   central Appalachian Mountains. As the upper-level low continues to
   move eastward, bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue to
   organize ahead of this dry slot and move northeastward across
   Pennsylvania and New Jersey late this afternoon. Snow will increase
   across southeast New York and in southern New England over the next
   few hours as the bands move into the region from the southwest.
   Strong isentropic ascent will support heavy snowfall within the
   heavier parts of the bands with snowfall rates reaching 1 inch per
   hour in some areas.

   As warm advection continues and the dry slot moves northeastward,
   snow will changeover to sleet and freezing rain across much of
   central and eastern Pennsylvania extending eastward into northern
   New Jersey and the New York City vicinity.

 

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7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Props to all those like Anthony and a few others here who thought this thing could perform. It really has. I'm eyeballing around three maybe four. Looking better than most of the storms in these parts than last winter....no changeover yet. Nice front end dump. My only concern is a superstitious one; in years when we've seen significant Nov snow in these parts, it has been pretty uneventful the rest of the winter. In 2012 we did get some of the Feb blizzard, but in 89 IIRC that was it for the year. Means nothing, I know....

To be fair,  name a time Anthony doesn't think something will perform.

On a side note; Forky and Bluewave have been talking about everything overperforming for years.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

4pm snow measurements were funky.  LGA reported 1.2 on .19 and JFK 3.2 on 2.5.  Central Park didn’t report 

KNYC: T

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14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah when an inch is expected and you get 2" in an hour things get messy.

They have to stop using the Gfs

Nam, ukie, Euro showed this potential

Clown maps were right

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8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 4 pm, 5" here in Metuchen and still snowing moderately to heavily, although smalller flakes (had huge flakes earlier). Looks like 6-7" is possible with the snow/rain line looking like it's at the border of Monmouth and Middlesex, at least 1-2 hours away, I think. Just shoveled and I rescind my earlier comment about it being heavy and wet (made from just driving through it) - it's more "standard" to me - maybe 10:1 ratio snow - can make snowballs, but it's not soupy by any stretch

I'm really surprised. It wasn't bad with the old two stage ( i've got a new single stage on order it's actually over at Sears, but not tonight ) and the dog loved it. They even let us out a little early, putting me in the unusual situation of leaving before some of the students, whose busses were delayed. Didn't have much trouble getting from Fords to Colonia, but the off ramp near metropark was snarled.

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6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

To be fair,  name a time Anthony doesn't think something will perform.

On a side note; Forky and Bluewave have been talking about everything overperforming for years.

But I explained why I thought so

Cad always oveperforms

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8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

To be fair,  name a time Anthony doesn't think something will perform.

On a side note; Forky and Bluewave have been talking about everything overperforming for years.

Give me credit

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

They have to stop using the Gfs

Nam, ukie, Euro showed this potential

Clown maps were right

For the wrong reasons.  

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So central part has reported just a trace?

No.  That's what they would have reported

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Roads almost impassable here. About 4” OTG. Heavy snow continues with less than 0.25 mile visibility. 

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