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HillsdaleMIWeather

November 8-10 Winter Weather/LES

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

High confidence in a DAB and the first measurable snow of the season around here.


.

Hoping for an inch at ORD so they can break that ridiculous run of early season futility that I posted about in the other thread.

Whatever falls should be picturesque. Temps probably won't really even fall below freezing while it's snowing, especially south/east of Chicago.

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The 06z RGEM looks really good for northern IL/southeast WI with 2-3" of snow tomorrow night.  It moves the snow in about 6hrs earlier than all the other models, and has a more intense snowfall in the comma head.  

The potent vort Friday is all over the place on the guidance.  The GFS has been pretty consistent in showing northern IA through central IL getting in on that.  The 3km is way further southwest, and impacts southwest IA down into MO.  That should be fun for whoever gets in on that, as it will likely have very intense snowfall rates/with wind for short periods of time.  

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With a little over 10” so far this short season, Friday into Saturday starting to look like first storm and headline event along the Superior shore, especially the higher terrain areas. 

At the 60 hr cutoff it was still snowing. Could be looking at a foot or over around here. 

2F9635EA-EA8E-41EE-AF3B-38E6295BA65A.png.310ade6368b5f18bcc2c3ec01203752d.png

 

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The 06z RGEM looks really good for northern IL/southeast WI with 2-3" of snow tomorrow night.  It moves the snow in about 6hrs earlier than all the other models, and has a more intense snowfall in the comma head.  

The potent vort Friday is all over the place on the guidance.  The GFS has been pretty consistent in showing northern IA through central IL getting in on that.  The 3km is way further southwest, and impacts southwest IA down into MO.  That should be fun for whoever gets in on that, as it will likely have very intense snowfall rates/with wind for short periods of time.  

There’s some low level CAPE as well, so there could be some convective elements accompanying any snow associated with that vort too. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a more “squally” nature to the snow bands.

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I like 1-2" here for now (mainly on grassy/colder surfaces), though it may not come all at once.  That follow up wave that cyclone mentioned is tricky to pin down, and could end up with amounts on the higher end if it passes through here.

I think temps will be 33-34 or so here during much of the snow, so will be fighting some melting.  

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Very rate dependent with such marginal thermals. At least it'll be wintery and flakes flying, if not adding up too deep at this point. Gotta start somewhere, and this would be at least a month earlier than we might typically get cold enough to track system snow vs just LES

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25 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Very rate dependent with such marginal thermals. At least it'll be wintery and flakes flying, if not adding up too deep at this point. Gotta start somewhere, and this would be at least a month earlier than we might typically get cold enough to track system snow vs just LES

Yeah not really expecting any accumulations around here, maybe a dusting on the windshield.  KIND covering their butts just in case though lol.....

Precipitation will mainly be in the
form of rain across the southern portions of the forecast area,
but a rain/snow mixture will affect the north, eventually turning
to all snow. The best chances will be a quick burst of snow
showers from Fri 06-12Z when a 120 plus upper level jet provides
some additional forcing. Will not rule out a quick 1 to 2 inches
of snow accumulation across the north central counties.
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RC posted some interesting Climate info for ORD/RFD. Discounting '89, it's pretty rare air to get 1"+ amounts this early.

1"+ SNOWFALL EVENTS UP THROUGH NOVEMBER 10TH ARE RARE IN THE 
HISTORICAL RECORD, ESPECIALLY IN RECENT DECADES. 1"+ SNOWFALL IS 
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MOST OR ALL OF WHICH WILL 
LIKELY FALL ON NOVEMBER 9TH. 

MOST RECENT 1"+ CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL THROUGH NOVEMBER 10TH:
* CHICAGO: 3.8" ON OCT. 19, 1989 (1.8" ALSO FELL ON 10/20/1989)
* ROCKFORD: 1.6" ON NOV. 3, 1992

NOTE FOR CHICAGO: JUST LOOKING AT FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOVEMBER 
ALONE, THE MOST RECENT CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL OF 1"+ DURING 
NOVEMBER 1-10 WAS 1.5" ON NOVEMBER 2, 1966
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RC posted some interesting Climate info for ORD/RFD. Discounting '89, it's pretty rare air to get 1"+ amounts this early.
1"+ SNOWFALL EVENTS UP THROUGH NOVEMBER 10TH ARE RARE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD, ESPECIALLY IN RECENT DECADES. 1"+ SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MOST OR ALL OF WHICH WILL LIKELY FALL ON NOVEMBER 9TH. MOST RECENT 1"+ CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL THROUGH NOVEMBER 10TH:* CHICAGO: 3.8" ON OCT. 19, 1989 (1.8" ALSO FELL ON 10/20/1989)* ROCKFORD: 1.6" ON NOV. 3, 1992NOTE FOR CHICAGO: JUST LOOKING AT FIRST 10 DAYS OF NOVEMBER ALONE, THE MOST RECENT CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL OF 1"+ DURING NOVEMBER 1-10 WAS 1.5" ON NOVEMBER 2, 1966

H/T to Hoosier for posting about that in the November thread. Figured I'd throw it into the climate section with the general interest about the first widespread snow accums of the season and them occurring so early.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Looks like a dusting to perhaps a half inch for this area from tomorrow night's wave.  RGEM continues to be the most bullish, but it's starting to back off a bit, and trends may continue with that.  Friday's potential is still up in the air.  3km NAM continues to insist the main threat with that will be way out in southwest IA/northern MO.  That's considerably different than what the Euro and GFS have been saying.  Usually you would side with the high-res models at this range, but the consistency of the Euro and GFS is interesting.  Of course the 3km NAM has been consistent as well.  Guess we'll see which one blinks first.  At the least we should get some snow showers and flurries Fri afternoon.  

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Looks like a dusting to perhaps a half inch for this area from tomorrow night's wave.  RGEM continues to be the most bullish, but it's starting to back off a bit, and trends may continue with that.  Friday's potential is still up in the air.  3km NAM continues to insist the main threat with that will be way out in southwest IA/northern MO.  That's considerably different than what the Euro and GFS have been saying.  Usually you would side with the high-res models at this range, but the consistency of the Euro and GFS is interesting.  Of course the 3km NAM has been consistent as well.  Guess we'll see which one blinks first.  At the least we should get some snow showers and flurries Fri afternoon.  

The GFS is no longer on board, having just shifted west.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS is no longer on board, having just shifted west.

Yeah big change.  The GFS really screws both of us, as we now completely miss both tomorrow night's wave, and the Friday vort max as well.  I'm basically just gonna anticipate a few mood flakes from time to time from tomorrow night through Friday, and if anything more than that happens I'll consider it a win.  We had measurable snow almost a month ago, so this is pretty meh anyway.

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Snowed on and off all yesterday but never stuck until later in the day it started to when the temp final dropped to freezing. It stuck better overnight. The streets are white this morning. NWS just issued a warning storm warning from 10 pm tonight through Saturday morning. Good thing I got the snow tires on. I seen the tire shop near my house had a booming business yesterday. 

Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
327 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 14
  inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Keweenaw and Northern Houghton Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and
  evening commutes.
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Gonna stick with 1-2" here.  Wouldn't be surprised at some slightly higher amounts somewhere but I think that would be farther south.

Even though sun angle isn't really a big thing this late in the year, I like the overnight onset simply due to having more hours to try to cool off.  There's still the residual warmth on the paved surfaces but I think any heavier bursts (and I do expect a period of better rates) could even cause some sticking on the roads/sidewalks.

As far as ORD and the 52 year stretch without a 1" snow in the first 10 days of November, my prediction is that gets broken.  We shall see.

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I really do have to do a double take when looking at the date.  It's a modest system but just don't see maps with snow extending this far south this early in the season very often.

HRRRMW_prec_kuchsnow_018.png.17d0aa51af829edf067180b9bf18e4a1.png

HRRRMW_prec_snow_018.png.27ce6c83282b7283cc399ca322f95a89.png

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NAM still hot with 12"+ totals here in the Huron's, the spine of the Keweenaw, down to the Porkies.  

Tomorrow afternoon into the evening should see the heaviest snow.  Do expect winter storm warnings to expand east with next package, although the MQT forecast for Marquette County is usually based heavily on weather in the city where only advisory snow may occur, so could only see a WWA even tho 20 miles nw of the city in remote areas, a snowstorm rages.  Very Excited!

 

Not sure which site I like better... tropics color scheme for sure.

nam3km_asnow_ncus_43.thumb.png.b3868b72b2c36fc5c6ddff6888a9747e.png

untitled.png.69731c05183d1217e6ede925b90cbc52.png

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