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Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

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45 minutes ago, buckeye said:

:facepalm: gfs has 4 cutters over the next 2 weeks.   That brings us to Feb 24th.   Yes, this may be the worst collective winter forecasting failure that I can recall. 

It's like JB became a virus and it went epidemic in the meterology world.   The only thing he has going for him is that this time he's not alone in failure.  Don S., DT, HM, and a plethra of knowlegable mets on this site all crashed and burned.   Per usual JB refuses to call it what it is and tries to piece together some kind of claim that his forecast was on target.  It's reminiscent of his infamous "I nailed the pattern at 500mb", excuse.    It's like watching someone try to build a tower out of jello while they convince you to keep watching just a little bit longer because it's almost there.   

He had Jan 20th thru Feb 15th as the pinnacle of winter's brutality, of course that was after the first half of January failed.  When it became apparent that the PV visit was only going to be a glancing blow and mostly to our friends from Chicago on north, he immediately claimed that a rebound to warm for a few days was perfectly normal and expected, (even though he never said that beforehand).   Now he has Feb 15th thru March 15th as his new target period for epic winter.   That is now crumbling apart and frankly at this point I find it humorous...   

So why do you read him Buckeye?   Because he's a hypster which leads to one of two outcomes.  Either he's right and we snow....or he's wrong and turns into the clown building a tower out of jello.   Either way it's entertainment :devilsmiley:

I haven't followed JB as closely as others until this Winter. He's an amazing BS artist that has an excuse for everything. Its so bad he is now putting out caveats in his tweets. Surprised his credibility is ruined with his clients... unless he tells his clients one thing (reality), and twitter followers something different (what they want to hear).

"Interesting, The GFS next 10 days is punishing the very areas that have missed the bulk of winters snow wrath this year, Here is what is interesting, Pattern looks like Feb 1994 and this happened, ON the other hand its the GFS and eye candy is cheap But at least its pretty"

 

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I have followed weather all my life, even as a kid, and winter and snow have been one of my top passions.

I will hit 70 later this year and have discovered at least one immutable truth. Anticipating snow season and your favorite baseball team's season have one thing in common....a lot of hope...followed by mostly heartbreak!

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Well the gem drops 7" of snow through Sunday night then changes to rain. Wouldn't be surprised at that outcome with this winter lol.

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ILN calling for 2 to 4" tomorrow night into Monday morning in the Dayton area, then flooding again on Tuesday and again Thurs/Fri,   Uuuuuggggghhhh! :cliff:

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1 minute ago, HighTechEE said:

ILN calling for 2 to 4" tomorrow night into Monday morning in the Dayton area, then flooding again on Tuesday and again Thurs/Fri,   Uuuuuggggghhhh! :cliff:

2-4?

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4 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

2-4?

yep?  around 1" late tmar, 1-3 more Sunday night?

You can do the math if you like:

OHZ062-101000-
Greene-
Including the cities of Beavercreek, Fairborn, and Xenia
619 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows 15 to 20. East winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with a chance of snow in the morning,
then snow and freezing rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation
around an inch. A trace of ice accumulation. Highs in the mid
30s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
100 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow, rain and freezing rain likely in the
evening, then freezing rain and snow likely after midnight. Total
snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Ice accumulation of
up to a tenth of an inch. Warmer with lows around 30. South winds
around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
 

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More from "glass-half-full" buckeye,

The euro takes the mjo into 8 on Tuesday and now the gfs has it moving into 8 by end of week, (although looping it back out and back in again).  Point is the gfs is correcting to a quicker move into 8 and euro is moving faster to it as well.   All of that in combination with some hints that the endless cutter pattern the models were all showing over the last few days, is looking less "cutterish", has one of my eyebrows raised.  (just one though).

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14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

More from "glass-half-full" buckeye,

The euro takes the mjo into 8 on Tuesday and now the gfs has it moving into 8 by end of week, (although looping it back out and back in again).  Point is the gfs is correcting to a quicker move into 8 and euro is moving faster to it as well.   All of that in combination with some hints that the endless cutter pattern the models were all showing over the last few days, is looking less "cutterish", has one of my eyebrows raised.  (just one though).

Time will tell. Hopefully we’ll see some decent winter weather before March.

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41 minutes ago, buckeye said:

More from "glass-half-full" buckeye,

The euro takes the mjo into 8 on Tuesday and now the gfs has it moving into 8 by end of week, (although looping it back out and back in again).  Point is the gfs is correcting to a quicker move into 8 and euro is moving faster to it as well.   All of that in combination with some hints that the endless cutter pattern the models were all showing over the last few days, is looking less "cutterish", has one of my eyebrows raised.  (just one though).

Best thing I've read on here in a while. Keep hope alive.

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14 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

What's up with the 12z Euro and that strip of 4-6 across I-70. 

Maybe the Canadian was onto something yesterday?

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I-75 at St Rt 41 north closed. I-75 at St Rt 36 south closed. Multiple vehicle accidents with injuries. Weather related.

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1 hour ago, Steve said:

Well we have over an inch here in Newark and it's still snowing!!:thumbsup:

Up to 2 inches now!

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9 minutes ago, Buckeye1994 said:

Looks like things are going to start to heat up (snow) next week. 

Yeah, looks like MJO phase 8 effects are starting to show on the global runs. 

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2 hours ago, Buckeye1994 said:

Looks like things are going to start to heat up (snow) next week. 

But its always next week:axe:

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Lots of stuff going on in the 3 to 9 day range.  Like 4 systems coming thru.  Models are all over the place.  First one looks to be weak and slide under us.  Next one is stronger and takes a nice track with most models getting a low to WV.   Gfs, gem, and icon all give us a moderate snow for that one.  The euro has a great track but there's virtually no cold sector precip with it.  Then more threats along the baroclinic boundary after that.

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On 1/27/2019 at 9:28 AM, HighTechEE said:

Ut oh, I  have a business trip to Boston the week of the 11th, guess when their blizzard of '19 will hit!

LOL, I made this reply to OHweather's post back on Jan 27th, and part of what he said is "It’s even worse in the Philly-NYC-Boston corridor where they’ve largely missed out the last two weeks (and Boston has been hilariously futile so far)."  Guess what, I didn't have to go, but my boss did, and Boston is getting crushed today!  HAHAHAHAAAA!!!!  Hanscom AFB had early dismissal!...

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