CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 You talk about Tim, look in the mirror cuz, seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Wolfie, You now live in the Tug and by the time March rolls around, you'l be looking for a house back down here, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 No one wants a WSW flow, no one and unfortunately that's the way KBUF gets their blockbusters. Move to Hamburg or somewhere like that and you'll be happy. I will be in the NE thread soon as I'm moving out of this communist state, to Maine, where I'm able to live free, or simply die, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: You talk about Tim, look in the mirror cuz, seriously. I’m literally the only poster on upstate that talks about places other then their own backyard. Not sure how you draw other conclusions. I’ve been posting on here since Eastern weather forums a decade ago with no drama. But I’m dropping that now...move on or we may need to ask for a mod for upstate for the winter season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 The "potential" real cold comes in on mon/tues of next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Was thinking of mowing the yard one last time but was busy Sunday. Traditional to cut one last time then swap riding mower for the snowblower...could be tough this time around. Let me be the first to say "Congrats Tug" for the upcoming *maybe* event and for the whole season. Go 'Cuse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 43 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: No one wants a WSW flow, no one and unfortunately that's the way KBUF gets their blockbusters. Move to Hamburg or somewhere like that and you'll be happy. I will be in the NE thread soon as I'm moving out of this communist state, to Maine, where I'm able to live free, or simply die, lol! Dude, stop baiting this forum with your politics. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Did anyone see the latest GFS? Says forget the Lake Effect, let's have a November snowstorm for entire viewing area. There is definitely some support for a strong storm around that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Mean 72 hour snowfall for days 6-8 in CIPS Analogs. A big Tug hit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Latest from kbuf Behind the Friday system, as 850 mb temperatures cool down to around -8C to -10C, lake effect snow showers will develop across the favored west-northwest flow snowbelts downwind from both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At this stage of the forecast, lake induced instability looking rather impressive with lake temperatures still running in the lower to mid 50s. We certainly should see accumulating lake snows in these areas and would not rule out the potenial for some moderate lake snows at times, and the possibility for some blowing snow with the potential for some gusty winds. Later in the period, there is quite a bit more uncertainty in how things will unfold with yet another system forecast to track across the Great Lakes. Lake snows should meander northward a bit Saturday night as the flow backs a bit ahead of this system, but then gets pushed back south by Sunday behind the system and will have a trend toward weakening with the arrival of ridging and drier air along with increasing shear. Temperatures during this period will be much colder than normal with both weekend days only in the mid to upper 30s for daytime highs and nighttime lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Wind chills will likely drop into the teens at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Dude, stop baiting this forum with your politics. Im not baiting anyone into anything. I just said get out and vote and somehow that was offensive, but it's okay when it gets hijacked buy real estate garbage right? Wait that's allowed because you talk about snow, well too bad what's good for the goose is good for the gander deal with it or don't read it, even better, block me!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Did anyone see the latest GFS? Says forget the Lake Effect, let's have a November snowstorm for entire viewing area. There is definitely some support for a strong storm around that timeframe. Foot of synoptic snow in November? Can’t remember the last time that happened for BUF..??? Maybe my memory is just fuzzy? GFS wants to pop a big one. Time will tell!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 I am lloving the look for this weekend and next week in these parts. Time to work in the rain this week to get the plows and other equipment ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 It's snow time, folks: Upstate NY likely to get lake effect snow Syracuse, N.Y. -- The season's first real lake effect snowfall is likely to arrive this weekend in Upstate New York. "There remains high confidence that accumulating lake snows can be expected in the snow belts east of" lakes Erie and Ontario, the National Weather Service saidtoday. The snow could reach down into Central New York if the winds shift to the northwest, the weather service said. There's even a chance for an extended, heavy lake effect snowstorm that would dump a foot or more of snow east of the lakes and bringing lighter snows to the south. The heaviest snow is expected in Tug Hill and the hills south of Buffalo. "If I had to throw some numbers out, I'd say 6 to 12 inches in the good spots," said Tom Kines, a meteorologist with Accuweather. The weather service said snow could fall Friday night through Saturday afternoon as the coldest air of the year so far sweeps across the Great Lakes. "Such an air mass would easily be plenty cold enough to support areas of lake effect snow downwind of the lakes through Saturday," the weather service said. Snow would taper off Sunday as drier air moves in and the winds shift. The air about a mile from the surface will fall to about 10 degrees, and surface temperatures in the lakes are about 50 degrees, the weather service said. The gap between upper air and the surface has to be just 23 degrees for lake effect snow to form. The weather service isn't predicting yet how many inches of snow could fall or exactly where. Lake effect snow bands are notoriously narrow and can quickly shift directions, dumping heavy snow in one spot while leaving nearby areas snow-free. Now for that potential of a foot or more: Dave Eichorn, longtime local meteorologist, said on his Facebook page today that the cold air, and the snow, could last for days. "HEAVY Lake Effect SNOW beginning this weekend and continuing (off and on) well into next week," Eichorn wrote. "Some models even suggest a Nor'easter in the mix early next week." Kines agreed that it looks like an extended run for lake effect snow, and that the snow will scatter across Western and Central New York as the winds change directions. "It looks like probably into the middle of next week there's going to be lake effect going on," Kines said. Source 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Last nights euro had several bouts of lake effect in the next 7-10 days...The Nws is talking 270-290 vector which would bring the band from the southern tug into the fulton area... The euro wind direction is kinda self explanatory lol (Not all from the same event) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Big storm "potential" still there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 I hate to rain on anyone’s parade, but this aforementioned cold air looks very typical for November. It will be moderate and west based. The LES should be mostly at the east ends. The only way this gets interesting is if we see a storm develop along the EC or just inland. Climo would suggest inland runner ie: Great Lakes Cutter but the cold is pushing just a bit east for that so we will have to watch. Might be intriguing. Im starting early with the vague hogwash and climo. Can we please keep politics off this site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Big storm "potential" still there.. Looks like rain on the lake plain. Maybe a period of lake effect after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 That would equate to 2-3'+ across the tug and 1-2' across the southern tier. Rochester/Syracuse/Buffalo: 2-6" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro Looks pretty impressive. Even BUF would score 3-6” with 1’+ over the hills south of BUF and the TUG. Time to put out the snow tires on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 994mb through CNY on the 12z euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 CPC analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 And thats with the synoptic system being mostly liquid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 This isn't normal cold. This is a piece of the PV hitting our area in normal November. We will be running 20 degrees below normal. The coldest anomalies across the entire planet will literally be right here next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Cold front approaching the area.. Deepening low pressure will track from the central Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec today, then on into central Quebec tonight. A strong cold front associated with this system, currently over WNY will push across the area through the mid afternoon. Strong west to southwest winds will follow behind this cold front. 925H winds of around 50 knots is suggested by some guidance, such as the NAM and Canadian models. With subsidence aloft helping to mix some of these winds down, the potential exists for some 50 knot wind gusts, with the greatest potential for these winds near/along the Lake Erie shoreline and into Western Niagara County. Winds will be strongest from the mid afternoon today through early Wednesday morning. A line of showers with an embedded thunderstorm possible will move through with the cold front this afternoon. This line of narrow showers will move through quickly and up to 0.10" of rain will be possible, with maybe some slightly higher amounts within some heavier showers within the main line. Behind the cold frontal passage winds will increase, especially near the Lake Erie shore and northeast of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro Any chance you would have a slightly zoomed out image that has the north East corner of Ohio? (I know I'm in the wrong subforum lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, dta1984 said: Any chance you would have a slightly zoomed out image that has the north East corner of Ohio? (I know I'm in the wrong subforum lol) Sorry we don’t like Ohio folks stealing the juice from our lake. Still not sure how we’re on different sides of the same lake and you’re not in our sub-forum. Cleveland and the belts should be with us and the southern potion of Ohio should be with the Tennessee/Kentucky crew or even Pittsburgh. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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