Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Where did all the cold air go that was in Canada, lol? It gets wiped out completely with this upcoming system. Looks like a complete washout, which was a given but I gotta say, the globals pegged this sucker from 10 days out. That to me is a good sign of things to come. Maybe now we can actually take the model at least 5 days out with some kind of certainty, perhaps 40%.

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If this upcoming pattern was a month or two later. This entire region would be well above normal in snowfall. Lots of rain coming next few weeks. Personally if it isn't going to snow give me some 60s and sunshine. My favorite falls are when we go from 60s/70s and sun to Lake effect storms a few days later. I think Nov 2014 had that. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

If this upcoming pattern was a month or two later. This entire region would be well above normal in snowfall. Lots of rain coming next few weeks. Personally if it isn't going to snow give me some 60s and sunshine. My favorite falls are when we go from 60s/70s and sun to Lake effect storms a few days later. I think Nov 2014 had that. 

Looks like your going with 2014-15 as an analog while I'm riding 02-03 big time. Both were fantastic winters and I believe both were below temps and abv snow, with 14-15 being the colder of the 2. I'll be happy with either one. You also mentioned 76-77' which was brutally cold with snow also, but I don't know how much up here cause I was 4 and lived in Jersey city.

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[BuffaloWeather]

11 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Looks like your going with 2014-15 as an analog while I'm riding 02-03 big time. Both were fantastic winters and I believe both were below temps and abv snow, with 14-15 being the colder of the 2. I'll be happy with either one. You also mentioned 76-77' which was brutally cold with snow also, but I don't know how much up here cause I was 4 and lived in Jersey city.

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I’m not sure what analog to go with. It will be a weak to moderate nino which is all we can really go by as it has the biggest inpact in winter weather. The other details can’t be predicted outside of 1-2 weeks still.

[rochesterdave]

I’m not writing off some snow Saturday night. It’s early but it’s a fine line between 40 and rain and 34 with pasty snow. Wait and see. I’ll bet we all see some flakes mixing. 

As for winter, 02-03 was a killer along the south shore. Huge amounts of lake effect that was often under forecast. 

Glad to be back!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Definitely potential for some backend flakes..

Interesting!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

There's a ton of moisture with this system too, wow! If only it was the middle of December.

[TugHillMatt]

I like the looks of those runs for our area, wolfie!

 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

I have a good feeling we're gonna see quite a few of these type of systems this yr. Its really not gonna take much to pull that cold air down over the top of this moisture. This would be a monster, man what a miss!

[lakeeffectkid383]

Landed up getting a new snowblower yesterday, so now I'm sure it'll be a long time until we see a good accumulating snow lol!

[wolfie09]

Next in the line of storms to keep an eye on..

[rochesterdave]

2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Next in the line of storms to keep an eye on..

Yeah. That one kinda came out of nowhere! I’ll be watching to see if other models get ahold of it. 

[wolfie09]

Updated CPC

 

 

Previous 3-4 week Probability 

 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Updated CPC
 


 

Previous 3-4 week Probability 
 

And it begins, lol. The pushing back of the cold air week after week will now begin, lol

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

Updated CPC
 


 

Previous 3-4 week Probability 
 

I seriously dont quite understand that new probability map cause of AK does in fact, get that warm over the top, then we get cold, simple as that. That map is also showing me that there will be many chances for precip as their will be a stormy zone between the 2 airmasses so this really isnt that bad!

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[OSUmetstud]

16 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I seriously dont quite understand that new probability map cause of AK does in fact, get that warm over the top, then we get cold, simple as that. That map is also showing me that there will be many chances for precip as their will be a stormy zone between the 2 airmasses so this really isnt that bad!

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This isn't exactly true. Sometimes in El Nino years the PAC flow can invade AK and Canada so that theres warmth across much of the northern tier. November and December wave lengths are shorter than Jan Feb and March. This is my analog set for December, for example:

Considerable improvement in Jan through March as the north PAC low sinks south towards Hawaii. 

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

31 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

This isn't exactly true. Sometimes in El Nino years the PAC flow can invade AK and Canada so that theres warmth across much of the northern tier. November and December wave lengths are shorter than Jan Feb and March. This is my analog set for December, for example:

Considerable improvement in Jan through March as the north PAC low sinks south towards Hawaii. 

 

 

So calling for average November, above average December, and below average Jan-March? 

[rochesterdave]

On 10/27/2018 at 9:16 AM, wolfie09 said:

30 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

This isn't exactly true. Sometimes in El Nino years the PAC flow can invade AK and Canada so that theres warmth across much of the northern tier. November and December wave lengths are shorter than Jan Feb and March. This is my analog set for December, for example:

Considerable improvement in Jan through March as the north PAC low sinks south towards Hawaii. 

 

 

It seems winter just comes later now a days. Everyone all excited for El Niño but my first experiences with it were devastating.  I recal some early 1980’s winters that were absolutely soul crushing. 

[OSUmetstud]

12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

 

Buffalo's 7 ft in mid November 2014 says hello.

But el Nino as a whole is not great for western ny, unless it's weak, then there's been some good ones.

 

[OSUmetstud]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

So calling for average November, above average December, and below average Jan-March? 

Basically. 

[BuffaloWeather]

27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Buffalo's 7 ft in mid November 2014 says hello.

But el Nino as a whole is not great for western ny, unless it's weak, then there's been some good ones.

 

This winter will be a weak El Nino heading towards Moderate later in the year? I think March ends up above average. 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Well thexn I guess we'll all see what happens at the end when we revisit the season.

[CNY-LES FREAK]

02-03' got warm, in fact, the whole month of October was quite warm, with the beginning of the month reaching the mid 80's like we did, and towards the end of the month another sort of Indian Summer week hit, but after Thanksgiving, all hell broke loose, lo,l and all weather enthusiasts rejoiced until March the following yr.

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

I dont think anyone reported any frozen precip with this current system that rolled through. The upper lvl though is now moving through which should eventually veer our winds into the NW-NNW but by that time, return flow from the next system starts to approach with more rain.

Lots and lots of precip on the way, with most being in the liquid form. Thats ok, till the middle of November, then things better change otherwise....... I wont go there yet!

This is why I hate hyped up Winter forecasts cause they are almost always wrong, but we get sucked in, always. Just because it happened before during a weak Nino doesn't mean the same factors, that made that yr a BN winter with AN snow are there this yr, cause their not.

Yeah a weak nino is present but all the cold/warm pools are in different areas, then that weak Nino stuff goes out the window. No 2 Winters are alike, they may be Similar wrt, sensible weather, but their rarely the same, both with snow and cold.

If we went by the snow correlation then ppl would be saying this may be one of the warmest winters on record cause of the lack of snowfall in Siberia, but Canada is AN. But what does this really mean? NOTHING!!

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

So another words Nick Novembers a torch and Decembers the transition period into real Winter. I'll buy that, since that start of Met Winter ain't until Dec 1 anyways.

This is real real early, it's almost like expecting a good system in April, lol, and who.wants that, certainly not me, lol.

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[BuffaloWeather]

**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION              24 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...Allegany County...
   Whitesville            0.6   700 AM 10/28  Co-Op Observer
   Alfred                 0.4   700 AM 10/28  Co-Op Observer

...Lewis County...
   Lowville               1.0   700 AM 10/28  Co-Op Observer
   Highmarket             0.5   600 AM 10/28  Co-Op Observer
   6 N Croghan            0.3   700 AM 10/28  CoCoRaHS

[BuffaloWeather]

It's been raining here all day. Just brutal outside. Have to be well over an inch of QPF. 

[OSUmetstud]

6 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

So another words Nick Novembers a torch and Decembers the transition period into real Winter. I'll buy that, since that start of Met Winter ain't until Dec 1 anyways.

This is real real early, it's almost like expecting a good system in April, lol, and who.wants that, certainly not me, lol.

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I didn't say that anywhere. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I didn't say that anywhere. 

Perhaps a bit to many edibles at the time of the post, lol! I guess it was kind of my interpretation, no harm, cheers to a good Winter up in those parts.

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************LOCATION              24 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                    SNOWFALL           OF                    /INCHES/   MEASUREMENTNEW YORK...Allegany County...  Whitesville            0.6   700 AM 10/28  Co-Op Observer  Alfred                 0.4   700 AM 10/28  Co-Op Observer...Lewis County...  Lowville               1.0   700 AM 10/28  Co-Op Observer  Highmarket             0.5   600 AM 10/28  Co-Op Observer  6 N Croghan            0.3   700 AM 10/28  CoCoRaHS

Ok, so Lowville's the winner with an 1" to start off, what may be, a great or horrible but perhaps more towards normal Winter.

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[Thinksnow18]

So I have to say this above and what the ECMWF have been forecasting since about mid October is really starting to make me wonder what the CPC is looking looking at with the next month and also for the winter as a whole. Checking out the first 10 days of November does not seem torch worthy and by mid month there appear many chances for cold air intrusions and the storm track pushing a bit further south out of Canada. To me the CPC is lazily forecasting on the basis of El Nino alone and not the stength of it,  position of the warmer Pacific waters off the West coast, upper level trends already, etc...