Thinksnow18 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Still a nice appetizer for us snowlovers!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 No one should be taking any one model at face value from a week out, just sayin. I doubt anyone sees anything of significance but the shot of cold, that's shown on most models now, is the most interesting part, and it means business but too early to lock in just yet, but a nice harbinger of things to come!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 12z fv3 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 If the 06Z GFS is anywhere near correct, they'll be lots of smiling faces on this board, but then again, whatever does fall,wont last too long as it'll get warm at least once more, but who wants that? Not me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 I think its pretty much a lock that we see some kind of cold air intrusion into the lower 48, but who bears the brunt of it? My bet is the upper plains but it wouldn't take much for the whole northern tier of states, including in the North East, to get in on some early Vodka cold relatively speaking of course, so I guess we gotta wait and see how the pattern change evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Kbuf Following the passage of this system...the medium range guidance remains in strong agreement that much colder air will build into the region for next weekend...with 850 mb temperatures dropping off to between -10C and -12C for next Saturday. With lake surface temperatures still running between +10C and +11C...such an airmass would easily be plenty cold enough to support areas of lake effect snow downwind of the lakes. While much uncertainty persists with respect to both the timing and location of these given the very distant time frame...at this early juncture the bulk of any lake effect appears as if it may lie across the traditional snow belts east of the lakes given a predominantly westerly flow. Otherwise... Saturday should be a markedly colder day with area highs remaining confined to the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 If anyone is interested.. Quote The National Weather Service in Buffalo, NY, presents the first online only winter Skywarn presentation for our area on November 6, 2018, at 7 PM. We will cover heavy winter precipitation, winter products, and measuring techniques. This will be the first ever chance to become a Skywarn spotter offered in our area that you can complete from the comfort of your own home! Skywarn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 Tug looks good for a westerly flow event from Weds night into Friday morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see some advisory's for that event. Moisture is not good off of Erie. Dusting-few inches max over higher elevations in Southern Tier. Saturday looks more appealing to me for Buffalo and nearby suburbs. Still too far out for though, will probably change 3-4 times throughout the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Wed-Friday looks like mainly rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Wed-Friday looks like mainly rain.. I think with intensity of band and elevation there will be snow. Around Lowville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Euro spreads the wealth around over the next 6-10 days, especially for the usual suspects.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Not much to do now but wait lol 18z gfs was worthy Pops increased to 50%-60% Latest from KBUF (not much new) Following the passage of this system there remains high confidence that much colder air will build into the region next weekend. Consensus 850mb temperatures fall to around -11C which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect snows. There still are subtle differences in wind direction and shortwaves embedded in a cyclonic flow aloft which will determine when and where lake effect snows develop. At this early juncture, the bulk of any lake effect appears most likely across the traditional snow belts east of the lakes given a predominantly westerly flow. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 30s for Saturday and Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Not much to do now but wait lol 18z gfs was worthy Pops increased to 50%-60% Latest from KBUF (not much new) Following the passage of this system there remains high confidence that much colder air will build into the region next weekend. Consensus 850mb temperatures fall to around -11C which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect snows. There still are subtle differences in wind direction and shortwaves embedded in a cyclonic flow aloft which will determine when and where lake effect snows develop. At this early juncture, the bulk of any lake effect appears most likely across the traditional snow belts east of the lakes given a predominantly westerly flow. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 30s for Saturday and Sunday. Yeah I haven't been paying much attention, have been really busy. I think you're right after looking closer. We really don't get cold enough for accumulating snow in lower elevations until Sat-Monday timeframe. Moisture/cold air looks good. Could be some shear early on, but overall it looks good, especially off the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 It's definitely going to be colder then normal until the middle of the month. There is a warmup coming though at the end of the month into December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 You can see above that we will begin to transition to a warmer than average pattern around mid month as teleconnections look unfavorable for NE cold. Really wish these temp profiles flipped. A nice warm first half and a colder then normal second half would be perfect. But again, that is two weeks away so it could change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 I try not to put much stock in the weather channel at all, let alone their 15 day outlook, but they do have Williamsville next week at 32 for a high next Wednesday and after this Friday not getting out of the 30's for daytime highs for 8 days...looking at all the data I think this is a bona fide chance we will all see our first accumulating snows as an area regardless of elevation by next week. Might be a coating or an inch but this pattern has that chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 I hate to rain on anyone’s parade, but this aforementioned cold air looks very typical for November. It will be moderate and west based. The LES should be mostly at the east ends. The only way this gets interesting is if we see a storm develop along the EC or just inland. Climo would suggest inland runner ie: Great Lakes Cutter but the cold is pushing just a bit east for that. Im starting early with the vague hogwash and climo nonsense. Peace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 OUTLOOK: Coldest air of the season with opportunities for snow coming soon SYRACUSE (WSYR-TV) - A blast of Arctic air for November standards will begin work in this weekend into next week and there will be opportunities for some accumulating snow for all too! A trough of low pressure will begin to develop late this week across the Eastern U.S. and what will help dig the trough even more so will be an area of low pressure developing and moving up the East Coast Thursday night into Friday. The track this storm takes will dictate exactly what we see Friday into Friday night but at this time it appears most will see some rain possibly mixed with snow developing Friday and ending as a little snow Friday night. However, the higher terrain across CNY could very well experience a few inches or more Friday afternoon through Friday night! In the wake of this intensifying storm, the coldest air of the season will begin to pour in over the weekend and lead to some significant lake effect snow mainly east of Lake Ontario Saturday into at least the start Sunday. There are some signs that the lake snow may shift to the south and possibly affect the Syracuse area later Sunday (Veterans Day) into Monday, but at this time it is WAY too early to know the details of how the lake effect is going to behave this weekend into early next week. Stay tuned for updates. The unseasonably cold air moving in this weekend will likely continue through at least much of next week with potentially a widespread snowfall across CNY early to mid next week that we will be watching. Updates to come over the coming days as new information becomes available. Yes, if possible you will want to winterize your vehicle before the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Todays model runs are a little bit warmer than the last few days. They don't look nearly as good as they did. Looks mostly W/NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 Cleveland NWS: This clipper crosses the region early on Saturday and will help to enhance any lake effect that has developed. Much colder air will arrive in the wake of the clipper with a change over to all snow for the snowbelt by early Saturday morning. We may see the first significant accumulations of the season. Another clipper type storm system may cross the lakes on Sunday. So stay tuned as we update the forecast through the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Todays model runs are a little bit warmer than the last few days. They don't look nearly as good as they did. Looks mostly W/NW flow. There are ppl on this board that would also be affected by a W/WNW/NW wind. Sorry you dont get affected by that wind flow but quite a few on this board would, so let's not be so back yard minded, Thanks!Wolfie would be rooting for this wind direction if he was still in KFZY, no?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 We all need different vectors of wind to help our cause so I'm rooting for a WNW flow for days, but the Tug wants W-WSW, lol, OH well then!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 I like when the love is spread out, but that's just me.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 I would be fine with oscillating bands and sharing the wealth lol I'm thinking all of Oswego county see's something..I would be a fool if i didn't expect to miss snow to the south,east,north,west, just how it works ..Fulton will snow many times while i'm high and dry but the opposite is true as well, except a west wind can actually be sustained for more then a few hours lol Got tired of 1-2 hour transition bands.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2018 Author Share Posted November 5, 2018 27 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: There are ppl on this board that would also be affected by a W/WNW/NW wind. Sorry you dont get affected by that wind flow but quite a few on this board would, so let's not be so back yard minded, Thanks! Wolfie would be rooting for this wind direction if he was still in KFZY, no? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Wasn’t being backyard minded. I was stating the 850s look warmer, there is more sheer, and NW flow events have weaker bands and tough to judge location. You are very quick to judge. Take the drama to the New England forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Euro not as enthusiastic, WSW for 12 hrs then it shuts off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Off topic, but if everyone can get out and vote Tomorrow and remove thee most corrupt Governor in existence from office would be great. Even Howie Hawkins would be a better choice than Cuomo, at this Pt, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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