SnowHole413 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I see an AN stretch on the EPS in the 11-15 day. Does that mean torch whole month or a +3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does that mean torch whole month or a +3? Seems like it may be AN but by how much who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I see an AN stretch on the EPS in the 11-15 day. I'm not sure why anybody would be surprised by that anyway, it is not like modeling had in any way locked a cold pattern in the long range. Step down pattern towards winter with the occasional steps back towards autumn and AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 36 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm not sure why anybody would be surprised by that anyway, it is not like modeling had in any way locked a cold pattern in the long range. Step down pattern towards winter with the occasional steps back towards autumn and AN. Yup. Makes logical sense. Seasons in seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 GFS looks like transient warmth in the 6-10 day forecast followed by cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Interesting trough configuration developing on the 00z GFS this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 10 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS looks like transient warmth in the 6-10 day forecast followed by cold shots. I don't see the transient warmth or the cold shots...can you explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 31 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: I don't see the transient warmth or the cold shots...can you explain? lol. I think it gets warmer relatively speaking in the 11-15 day based on ensembles. Again, typical fall ebb and flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: lol. I think it gets warmer relatively speaking in the 11-15 day based on ensembles. Again, typical fall ebb and flow. Copy that. I now do see that there has been a slight adjustment warmer in the 6-10! Looks like "warmth" comes with moisture, too. Also interesting for the ACATT group, this week has been trending warmer in forecasts and also overperforming. Something to keep in mind. That said, compared to early Oct and falls of the past few years, it does not seem like the constant this season will be balmy. Looks somewhat consistent. Also Mets - there's a super typhoon out there in weatherland. Will it have much effect on our sensible wx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Looks torchy in the LR, oh o. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks torchy in the LR, oh o. Interesting. Which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Just now, LurkerBoy said: Interesting. Which model? Multiple pieces of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks torchy in the LR, oh o. Bring it on, winter doesn't start until December 1 in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Multiple pieces of guidance. lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: lol.... It does look like an 80s pattern of warmth ahead of a midwest cutter, rain, front, cool....then back to warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It does look like an 80s pattern of warmth ahead of a midwest cutter, rain, front, cool....then back to warmth. Personally that's fine for now...too early for anything meaningful anyways, so might as well be a little milder imo. I'll take upper 50's and low 60's for another 3-4 weeks...no issues with that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Personally that's fine for now...too early for anything meaningful anyways, so might as well be a little milder imo. I'll take upper 50's and low 60's for another 3-4 weeks...no issues with that at all. November avg temps are in the 50s for awhile. It is not a winter month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: November avg temps are in the 50s for awhile. It is not a winter month. Yes sir, Exactly my point...a little milder for the next month or so is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: November avg temps are in the 50s for awhile. It is not a winter month. That’s why I’m not entirely sold on a sustained above normal pattern. It will relax for sure but mid 50s as climo early November would require some pretty warm temperatures for more than a day or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s why I’m not entirely sold on a sustained above normal pattern. It will relax for sure but mid 50s as climo early November would require some pretty warm temperatures for more than a day or 3. If it's a warm SW flow, it would be combo of day and nights. That wouldn't be hard to do. Nothing that screams 78 and sunny though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If it's a warm SW flow, it would be combo of day and nights. That wouldn't be hard to do. Nothing that screams 78 and sunny though. And given the not too high heights and fairly pedestrian 850s, any flow off the water could be AOB. Looking at some of the guidance it wouldn’t surprise to see windy southeasters with moist 60+ at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: And given the not too high heights and fairly pedestrian 850s, any flow off the water could be AOB. Looking at some of the guidance it wouldn’t surprise to see windy southeasters with moist 60+ at times. A lot of screamers in past autumns has generally yielded big snow winters. 92-93, 95-96, 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: A lot of screamers in past autumns has generally yielded big snow winters. 92-93, 95-96, 11-12 11-12? IIRC, that was a mediocre winter that ended abruptly with the March super-torch, and I don't recall anything particularly noteworthy prior to the Octobomb. Year before/year after might make sense. 95 is the one in which I recall multiple strong wind-rain events in Oct-Nov. We had to salvage 2,000 cords of blowdown near Jackman because of the 11/12-13 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 24 minutes ago, tamarack said: 11-12? IIRC, that was a mediocre winter that ended abruptly with the March super-torch, and I don't recall anything particularly noteworthy prior to the Octobomb. Year before/year after might make sense. 95 is the one in which I recall multiple strong wind-rain events in Oct-Nov. We had to salvage 2,000 cords of blowdown near Jackman because of the 11/12-13 event. When was the big roof collapse winter ? It was that fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When was the big roof collapse winter ? It was that fall 2010-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2011-12 was a ratter....probably the worst winter that I have lived through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2011-12 was a ratter....probably the worst winter that I have lived through. For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 EPS is pretty mild end of next week and beyond for a lot of the country. We Indian summer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Don’t drain the gas and oil from your lawn equipment just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now