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Hoosier

October 2018 General Discussion

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Quite a temperature contrast will be seen from the North to the South to start October. As I said in the Winter thread, I'm liking the cold building in Canada like that. Locally we wll be on the northern fringe of some pretty warm air the first several days of October before normal and below normal temperatures follow. At least that's how it looks right now.

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

 

Ummm-did-you-get-the-memo-about-that.jpg

So that means even less model downtime, because by the time the 18z / 06z EURO likely finishes, the 00z / 12z NAM will likely rolling.

Plus, it will be hourly data up to 90hrs and 3-hourly data from 93 to 144hrs.

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With the euro doubling its runs, I'm going to have to make a real effort to get up and exercise or do something else once in a while.  I already get too stuck in my computer chair during tropical/winter storm action.

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22 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

With the euro doubling its runs, I'm going to have to make a real effort to get up and exercise or do something else once in a while.  I already get too stuck in my computer chair during tropical/winter storm action.

There use to be that dead time in model runs after the 6z GFS and before the 12z nam.   Then again after the 18z GFS and before the 00z nam.    Damn, this is going to be like giving alcoholics 4 day weekends.  

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

After the warm runs earlier this month and then a cooler trend, the latest CFS runs are going with a north/south gradient look.

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201810.thumb.gif.6751a0125354711932f37c8afdefb6b7.gif

Hey, I'll take this versus an all-out North American blowtorch. We need that cold air to continue pooling up to our north so that when it matters, it can spill east.

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9 hours ago, WxMatt21 said:

Hey, I'll take this versus an all-out North American blowtorch. We need that cold air to continue pooling up to our north so that when it matters, it can spill east.

I imagine this would be better for lake effect, especially if the warmer southern half of the spit flow were to warm them into November. 

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Like i always say about the CFS, the fact that it is run every day and is clearly accessible to any weather weenie, really magnifies models have a long way to go in seasonal forecasting. Even looking at the weeklies it changes on a constant basis. That's why trusting those who have pattern recognition is a better way to figure out what might happen the next month or season than trusting a model. I don't mind the gradient look myself, even if I end up on the warmer side of it, it's October. All that means is I'll have to use the furnace less than normal while the color show is blazing. And its worth saying again- all that called building in Canada cant be a bad thing for the looming Winter.

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I now have 89 in the forecast for Wednesday, gonna be a breezy one around these parts as well. Yesterday ensembles has trended to a very warm second week of October as well. Something to monitor moving forward. 

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1 hour ago, Chambana said:

I now have 89 in the forecast for Wednesday, gonna be a breezy one around these parts as well. Yesterday ensembles has trended to a very warm second week of October as well. Something to monitor moving forward. 

I am expecting mid to potentially upper 80s here on Wednesday, with winds possibly gusting around 40 mph.  

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I am expecting mid to potentially upper 80s here on Wednesday, with winds possibly gusting around 40 mph.  

Yep. Getting to be that time of year where you need a jacket in the morning, and sweating in the afternoon lol. 

 

Hows the foliage up there? Everything is still very green here, besides a few of the early leaf changers. Mid to upper 80’s certainly won’t help the cause neither. 

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35 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Hows the foliage up there? Everything is still very green here, besides a few of the early leaf changers. Mid to upper 80’s certainly won’t help the cause neither. 

That's how it is here too.

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Quite the chilly stretch the past several days.  Have had rain/graupel and at times in heavier showers, all graupel.  Even had a few flurries in the sprinkles early this morning.  Color show near peak in higher terrain areas around my house and down toward Negaunee, a week or so behind down on the lake. 

Some pics today... hi-def if you click on them

sept303.thumb.jpg.7c175c321f8f3115b6fdbf467694702d.jpg

sept301.thumb.jpg.3b8bdb25fd688395bf900beea6e144d0.jpg

 

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Quite the chilly stretch the past several days.  Have had rain/graupel and at times in heavier showers, all graupel.  Even had a few flurries in the sprinkles early this morning.  Color show near peak in higher terrain areas around my house and down toward Negaunee, a week or so behind down on the lake. 

Some pics today... hi-def if you click on them

sept303.thumb.jpg.7c175c321f8f3115b6fdbf467694702d.jpg

sept301.thumb.jpg.3b8bdb25fd688395bf900beea6e144d0.jpg

 

Bo, I’ve said this many times, but good lord it’s like a different world up there. What I wouldn’t give to lock myself in a cabin with food, beer and good books for a month and watch the snow pile up to my eye balls with a wood burning stove going. Ahhh. Good stuff man. 

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Yeah, that is amazing. Very little turn so far in the upper OV. The tropics will drive the pattern for the first half of the month with cyclones developing on both sides of the NA pushing up ridges and troughs.

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7 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Quite the chilly stretch the past several days.  Have had rain/graupel and at times in heavier showers, all graupel.  Even had a few flurries in the sprinkles early this morning.  Color show near peak in higher terrain areas around my house and down toward Negaunee, a week or so behind down on the lake. 

Some pics today... hi-def if you click on them

sept303.thumb.jpg.7c175c321f8f3115b6fdbf467694702d.jpg

sept301.thumb.jpg.3b8bdb25fd688395bf900beea6e144d0.jpg

 

Nice Pics Bo, was in Petoskey all weekend, cold, windy, rainy which put a small damper on our last camping trip of the year. My area is about a week a way from peak color. 

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Looks like my beach season is getting extended. 

The ridiculous ridge modeled along the East Coast from this weekend into next week is in the top tenth of the 99th percentile for October [ECMWF].

Shown peaking at 593.4 dam, it would trail only Oct 11-12 1990 (595.3 dam), Oct 3 2012 (594.3 dam), and Oct 9 1985 (593.8 dam)

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Had anyone heard of nasty flu viruses going around? I tried to google flu activity for Illinois and couldn’t find an updated chart. My fever is at 103.5. This stuff is no joke boys.

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6 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Had anyone heard of nasty flu viruses going around? I tried to google flu activity for Illinois and couldn’t find an updated chart. My fever is at 103.5. This stuff is no joke boys.

103.5 is high dude.  Hope you’re okay. Don’t delay a dr’s visit.

 

 

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Its a very gray dark day today. Temps in southeast MI stuck in the 50s. As i said color is off to a good start, i hope the coming weather doesnt hurt it much. I will be in cadillac Oct 13-14 and hoping/expecting it to be peak.

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