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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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Also, our local news had there future radar model show us having very little effect from Florence. Just some wind and rain. Much worse at the southern coast south of J-actionville.

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7 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Also, our local news had there future radar model show us having very little effect from Florence. Just some wind and rain. Much worse at the southern coast south of J-actionville.

Yeah Wral said now 3-5 inches of rain here and 30-40ish mph gusting. Moderate to isolated power outages. Said not expecting too much impact like we were here in Raleigh. Based on that most people here will ride it out. I’m staying put for now and watching just in case we need to pull the plug. 

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19 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Also, our local news had there future radar model show us having very little effect from Florence. Just some wind and rain. Much worse at the southern coast south of J-actionville.

For New Bern, if Florence is in Onslow Bay, I'd expect gusts easily over 50mph perhaps hurricane force gusts even and heavy rain. Just some wind and rain does not sound like a reasonable forecast.

Screenshot from 2018-09-12 18-30-56.png

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15 minutes ago, Regan said:

Yeah Wral said now 3-5 inches of rain here and 30-40ish mph gusting. Moderate to isolated power outages. Said not expecting too much impact like we were here in Raleigh. Based on that most people here will ride it out. I’m staying put for now and watching just in case we need to pull the plug. 

who knows it could climb back up north to the triangle 

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1 minute ago, bigshaq00 said:

who knows it could climb back up north to the triangle 

Anything is possible. That’s why I’m watching. I already have meds and documents packed up. Just have to grab clothes and the pets and likely head to Greensboro. Trying to avoid that. 

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A storm this wide, I wouldn't worry so much about the SLP track. If it were to make landfall in SE NC and then drift W or WSW, the winds will start to spread out pretty dramatically, especially on the right quadrant. Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see RDU gust to Hurricane strength if the GFS is right.

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Eye seems to be drifting west the last 30 minutes or so

If you didn’t know any better looking at satellite today you’d think Florence had its own mind and deliberately deviated north to get away from the shear and dry air and now said okay I’m resuming course again. 

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I see the posts about overhyping.  I am by no means even knowledgeable enough to be dangerous discussing weather, but I do study and have worked in politics all my adult life.  In my corner of the triangle right now there are still gas lines, people evacuating, and water and essentials have been hard to find for days now.  All the schools are closed Thursday and Friday.  UNC basically shut down Tuesday evening and has been trying to get all their students to go home.  At Elon, where I work, they cancelled class and encouraged all students to go home beginning Tuesday.  At a school where 25 or so of the kids are from NC and many from the NE etc this isnt as easy as it sounds.  Tons of folks to fly out etc.  Overreaction yeah maybe, but with 7000 undergrads needing 3 meals a day if the power goes out thats 21000 meals a day on generator power.  No bueno. The school is not supposed to keep students on campus if they lose power, but local communities cannot absorb 7000 bodies in their shelters so they basically had no choice.

I dont know what the answer to this stuff is, but when you are hitting 5 days out or less and everything seems to be pointing one way and historic flooding, what do you do?  I feel bad for the people who are going to take a hit from this.  I am a bit of a prepper so I just needed a few things, but many people were making choices between bills and hurricane prep etc.  Its a tricky situation.  It doesnt feel good enough to just say better to be safe than sorry, but the alternative is?  I very much worry that most people will just tune out next time on this kind of stuff.

 

On a personal level, I have been in NC for 12 years now and havent even gotten a good kiss from a hurricane yet.  Weirdly, I felt more hurricane effects in Massachusetts than NC and thats depressing.

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Latest from NWS Raleigh

NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 28m28 minutes ago

 
 

An overview of the impacts we expect from #Florence across central NC. Impacts from high winds & flash flooding are extreme across the Coastal Plain, lessening the farther NW you go across the region. However, everyone should prepare for at least some impacts to life & property.Dm7QZGSXcAcyhKa.jpg

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I really wouldn't put too much stock into whatever the "futurecast" or "RPM" or whatever the weather model news stations show... We use it because WSI, the company most stations (WRAL for example) runs that model and makes it super easy to manipulate that model into easy to understand graphics. Personally I hate it. WSI doesn't offer anything with the NAM 3km, which I would use. Point being, I would absolutely take anything the RPM is saying with a grain of salt and instead use hurricane models and globals.

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12 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I really wouldn't put too much stock into whatever the "futurecast" or "RPM" or whatever the weather model news stations show... We use it because WSI, the company most stations (WRAL for example) runs that model and makes it super easy to manipulate that model into easy to understand graphics. Personally I hate it. WSI doesn't offer anything with the NAM 3km, which I would use. Point being, I would absolutely take anything the RPM is saying with a grain of salt and instead use hurricane models and globals.

We must have a good one, the local channel I like shows the Euro and GFS models along with others sometimes and explains the difference between them.

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15 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I really wouldn't put too much stock into whatever the "futurecast" or "RPM" or whatever the weather model news stations show... We use it because WSI, the company most stations (WRAL for example) runs that model and makes it super easy to manipulate that model into easy to understand graphics. Personally I hate it. WSI doesn't offer anything with the NAM 3km, which I would use. Point being, I would absolutely take anything the RPM is saying with a grain of salt and instead use hurricane models and globals.

Problem is 99.9999% of folk cannot and will be basing their decisions off whatever local adfiliate they watch. <Shrugs> That’s problematic. This may be an issue with some stations, but I don’t think fisher would steer us wrong if he knew better and I know he’s looking at all models. 

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To elaborate. Most mets actually do use GFS and Euro in their shows. What people remember though, is the RPM, since its in 15 minute increments and it's easier to display, zoom in on, and understand.

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Seems like people are forgetting how big the storm is and after landfall much of the precipitation decouples from the circulation, usually traveling North...but either way impacts can be very far from the low pressure center. 

rgem_ir_seus_52.png

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Slightly weaker again.

8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

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3 minutes ago, Solak said:

Slightly weaker again.

8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

Good, keep weakening. I would love to wake up tomorrow and see a sub 100 mph storm.

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12 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Good, keep weakening. I would love to wake up tomorrow and see a sub 100 mph storm.

You may see one at 11 if this is all recon finds.

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20 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

She does look rough at the moment.....would rather this be her 10 hrs from landfall, to much time left for her to get her act together.....

A lot of people expected her to be a strong cat 4 or even a cat 5 by now. Let's hope the weakening continues. At her size it would take while to wind down unless more dry air gets entrained in her.

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For the umpteenth time today Florence is trying to figure out how to eye wall.

Don't know how big of an issue dry air really is, we'd probably see more examples of outflow arcs racing away from the center on VIS if it was reallllllyyyyy a big problem. 

If southerly shear has been over the storm all day, that's probably helped with some sinking air on the south side. If winds aloft have a slight southerly component, then winds are starting to turn counterclockwise with height- backing winds. That's going to cause the air to sink, and it's probably why we haven't seen any CDO maintenance on that side of the storm whatsoever. 

If this shear really is expected to abate, we'll probably see any CDO persist a little longer. 

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9 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

For the umpteenth time today Florence is trying to figure out how to eye wall.

Don't know how big of an issue dry air really is, we'd probably see more examples of outflow arcs racing away from the center on VIS if it was reallllllyyyyy a big problem. 

If southerly shear has been over the storm all day, that's probably helped with some sinking air on the south side. If winds aloft have a slight southerly component, then winds are starting to turn counterclockwise with height- backing winds. That's going to cause the air to sink, and it's probably why we haven't seen any CDO maintenance on that side of the storm whatsoever. 

 If this shear really is expected to abate, we'll probably see any CDO persist a little longer. 

What do you think about the coastline perhaps providing some friction to help Florence tighten up a bit? Seems like we've seen that happen in the past.

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