DopplerWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 if im on the sc coast the 00z EPS would reinforce the fact that preparation is vital. the nhc cone is there for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Going to be interesting to see what the models do today. It looked like they were coming into agreement until the Euro went south again last night. Looks like the NHC track stayed the same, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 56 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Is DC/NoVA not a good place to evacute to? Landfall at like MHC and a slow drift and stall up to the NC/VA line is going to inundate the DC area with much of the rain that the Euro has going into central and western NC. And the DC area, as you know I'm sure, has had a ton of rain already in the last couple months. It's on the northern edge of the danger area for sure but definitely still in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Hi all down in SC and NC . I spend my vacation every year down in Litchfield beach and this past year while on vacation my son was diagnosed with luekimia . He was air flown from litchfield to Charleston SC children’s hospital . I’ve made some amazing friends while down there and honestly everyone from the south that I’ve met have been so friendly and nice . Helped my family out in the worst of times . So if this hurricane hits I just want you all to know we here in the Bronx are praying for all you . You all are amazing people and I hope all your family and friends are all safe . God bless you all 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Yes, the rain this weekend in NoVA was unreal, waves of torrential downpours day and night. Parts of Alexandria alread inundated by the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 NOAA "Kermit" was supposed to take off at 12z from Bermuda for a mission. Awfully hard to get recon into this storm (although that should change today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Euro way off on intensity with its OP runs which is probably why its so south and flat compared to the others.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Frankie Says Hurricane https://mobile.twitter.com/frankiemacd/status/1039014612857962496/video/1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: Brad P. must not be feeling the latest Euro/ more west based solutions yet. From his FB: Thats the WPC consensus forecast, not Brad P's....they like the NHC blend all the tracks to get the most likely path which currently is apparently landfall over Jacksonville then up to around Wilson then Roanoke Rapids....very likely this is what happens based on current modeling.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 Check out Huffman latest tweet. Euro clown map showing 47 inch bullseye western NC. Sad thing is it floods river basin and comes right back down to landfall point/coastal areas that just got cat 4 landfall. Double delayed whammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 So those WPC forecasts aren't entirely automated but they do lean heavily on the GEFS and NCEP numerical models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 As a life-long Outer Banker (until recently), my experience plus the current modeling suggests to me that a landfall closer to Cape Lookout seems more reasonable at the moment. That's just my 2 pennies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Check out Huffman latest tweet. Euro clown map showing 47 inch bullseye western NC. Sad thing is it floods river basin and comes right back down to landfall point/coastal areas that just got cat 4 landfall. Double delayed whammy. 7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I know UNC-Wilmington has canceled class for the week and told the students to go home. I hope the colleges in the mountains like App State, UNC-Ashville, and Western Carolina are going to do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I'm just sitting here and taking it all in. After the debacle that was Matthew around here in October 2016, I'm not too fond of anything over 6" of rain. Just sharing what @crankywxguy posted on Twitter. He favors a more northward situation.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, tramadoc said: I'm just sitting here and taking it all in. After the debacle that was Matthew around here in October 2016, I'm not too fond of anything over 6" of rain. Just sharing what @crankywxguy posted on Twitter. He favors a more northward situation. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk I guess if we had to pick a solution, that would be the one to take as it spares the most people. It would still be bad, but I'd consider it a small win none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said: I guess if we had to pick a solution, that would be the one to take as it spares the most people. It would still be bad, but I'd consider it a small win none the less. Yeah a Cape Lookout landfall moving NW would put the absolute worse conditions over very low populated areas...versus ILM to Emerald Isle which is the opposite.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 He explains things quite well. He has sound reasoning behind what he says. I sit on the northern end of the Albemarle Sound. Anything that comes in aeound MHX and rides north (just to my west) is a doomsday scenario for my location and Hampton Roads. Couple that with the drenching that has been going on since last week and, well, it isn't good. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I noticed that about five minutes ago, Brad P. stated in a reply tweet that modeling was coming north with the track.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regulator23 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just got off the phone with my Mom who lives in New Bern, NC. SHe does not want to leave. Waiting for my Dad to get from running errands so I can try and persuade him. What are the things I need to say to them to get them to get out of harms way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Regulator23 said: Just got off the phone with my Mom who lives in New Bern, NC. SHe does not want to leave. Waiting for my Dad to get from running errands so I can try and persuade him. What are the things I need to say to them to get them to get out of harms way? Depends on where they live, if they have a well built home away from water with no trees near the house then they will be ok, though they may have to deal with a extended period of no water/power etc....also if they have medical needs etc they may want to leave.....if they live in flood prone areas of have tons of trees around the house then they need to leave. Hotels and such will fill up if they havent already in all the inland towns....most people inland die from trees falling on them in homes or vehicles and trying to cross flooded roadways.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Howdy all, interesting weather in the summer, go figure! I'm really not a tropical guy and I don't really follow weather very closely in the summer. But I usually pay attention to tropical storms tracking toward the Carolinas. I've never seen a storm that I recall come up SC/NC and go NW (other than Hugo). 98% of the storms re-curve more toward the north and NE. If I had to bet, I'd say this one will do similar. Though we hug the EURO in the winter, I'm leaning toward this affecting the Eastern Carolinas more as usual. I'd be surprised if Charlotte north and west had any extraordinary weather. With that said, considering we've got another 3 days before landfall I bet the final track is totally different than what we're seeing. The last 2 years have shown these systems go where they want to go and we're not that great in predicting them yet at long leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Regardless of how people feel about him, I just watched Joe Bastardi's daily update, and he's with the Euro camp of having a landfall between Myrtle and Wilmington with it tracking towards the mountains. He's been spot on so far and was spot on with Gordon, so I'm not sure what to think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 @SamWalkerOBX 6m6 minutes ago BREAKING NEWS: Mandatory evacuation of Hatteras Island, visitors and residents, beginning at 12pm today. #Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Regardless of how people feel about him, I just watched Joe Bastardi's daily update, and he's with the Euro camp of having a landfall between Myrtle and Wilmington with it tracking towards the mountains. He's been spot on so far and was spot on with Gordon, so I'm not sure what to think. I'd put way more weight toward the euro and its ens suite verse all the gfs and all those model plots that are derived off the same exact physics the gfs is. Just my 2 cents. I'd pay money for the gfs camp to finally get one right and save me alot of headaches selfishly. Always better to go lend help than be the one receiving it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I'd put way more weight toward the euro and its ens suite verse all the gfs and all those model plots that are derived off the same exact physics the gfs is. Just my 2 cents. I'd pay money for the gfs camp to finally get one right and save me alot of headaches selfishly. Always better to go lend help than be the one receiving it. For days I've felt like this storm is going to take an abnormal path. I think we are all trying to apply way too much of the "it usually happens like this" logic for a storm that has been anything but logical to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Mandatory evac of Outer Banks of Dare County starting at noon today for areas in yellow. Red areas at 7am tomorrow.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 WeatherMatrix 1 min · Latest Hurricane #Florence storm surge forecast approaching 15 feet on shore, 10-13 feet up the rivers. This will change if track changes. http://cera.coastalrisk.live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, BooneWX said: For days I've felt like this storm is going to take an abnormal path. I think we are all trying to apply way too much of the "it usually happens like this" logic for a storm that has been anything but logical to this point. Agreed. This is already unprecedented making it all the way back here after it had gained so much poleward turf out in the Atlantic. It will be better for the landfall smash job to hit lookout. However , cant beleive Im saying this but the inland flood disaster that is gonna be the big history of this storm afterwards, would be handled better in western NC as oppossed the the eastern part. Our floods are here today and gone tommorow(flash). You dump that euro bullseye over the coastal plain of 40 plus inches and itll make Floyd look like chicken feed. Floods like Floyd dont just come and go like ours due to the topography. Anyway beside the brush and ots. Just not any good options available. This is not gonna end well and alot is to do with the inland flooding that will be historical with Florence stalling. All this on top of the landfall point destruction from surge and cat 4 winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 For what it's worth, the 12z NAM at hr84 is slightly north of its 6z location at hr78. East of the GFS. At hr84 its ~60 miles SE of Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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