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Chinook

2018 E. Pacific Hurricane Season

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With the first named storm, Aletta, now we have rapid intensification to a category 4 storm where nobody was expecting it.

Quote
The remarkable intensification of Aletta has continued through this
morning.  The eye has become clear and at times has been
surrounded by a closed ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C.
The initial intensity of 120 kt is based on a blend of subjective
and objective Dvorak estimates.  It is noteworthy that the
intensity of Aletta has increased by an estimated 60 kt in just 24
hours since yesterday morning.

KziLw90.jpg

 

6Lyo245.jpg

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Hurricane Bud peaked at 115 kt, as of the early-morning NHC discussion. Here is the satellite image that best represents Bud's maximum intensity (midnight, Pacific time)

KUP2MLM.gif

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Interesting matter-of-fact type discussion from NHC on Hurricane Hector. See NHC for full discussion text. Hurricane Hector is now forecast to intensify to 105 kt (120 mph) in 4-5 days.

Quote
Hurricane Hector Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018

Well, so much for the shear.  Satellite images indicate that Hector
is rapidly intensifying and has recently formed a small eye. The
initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, based on the TAFB Dvorak
estimate.  While there still could be some shear over the next day
or so, it seems apparent now that the highest shear should stay
north of the tropical cyclone, leaving Hector in a pocket of lighter
winds. 

 

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In regards to Hurricane Hector and any potential threat to Hawaii, the GFS has trended south over the past few runs and is now more in line with the ECMWF for Hector's 5-7 day track. However, the Euro is considerably slower with track. Though obviously too early for track certainty at this range, there should be a brief weakness in the central Pacific ridge that will allow a more WNW and even NW component of motion before Hector reaches the longitude of Cape Kumukah and before the ridge is shown building back. This could very well end up being a very close call, if not outright landfall, and definitely something to watch for with respect to The Big Island of Hawaii, especially considering the ongoing relief efforts in the lower Puna/Kapoho area and the ongoing eruption in the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea Volcano. There are still many displaced residents living in temporary shelters awaiting a more long-term solution beyond just the horrible inconvenience of dealing with a landfalling hurricane. Hopefully the core will miss to the south but I'd feel a little uneasy being that close on the north edge of track guidance in early modeling at that range. As for intensity, though OHC/TCHP and the 26° isotherm isn't that deep around the islands, the near-surface temperatures are warm enough to support a steadily moving hurricane at Category 2 intensity if atmospheric conditions are favorable and shear is low. SSTs are running between 26-27° at the surface and above 27° just south of the Big Island. As is typical with Hawaiian TCs, especially hurricanes, the more southerly the track, the better the potential for a stronger system; furthermore, we don't generally see the stronger hurricane threats outside of El Niño.

af32925686ffaf2f30998a0468fb6598.jpgacf9c8a4785d3affbeff7a47843877dd.jpg

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Today's 12z ECMWF is building a huge dominate central Pacific high and driving Hector all the way into the WPAC now. My previous post may very well end up a non-issue. GFS still breaks down the ridge, but only after Hector misses Hawaii to the SW. Still early though.9f080708a476478ac015e4da0b43bd18.gif

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ECMWF not turning Hector north or shearing it apart. 

New forecast contest:   What day does Hector dissipate? 

Typhoon/Hurricane John 31 days is the record.   Hector needs to make it to 8/31 to beat that.

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5 hours ago, Amped said:

ECMWF not turning Hector north or shearing it apart. 

New forecast contest:   What day does Hector dissipate? 

Typhoon/Hurricane John 31 days is the record.   Hector needs to make it to 8/31 to beat that.

I think hector has serious potential to make it all the way well into the west pac. Some weenie runs even have it making landfall in Asia? Realistically, the only thing I can see weakening it for the next 7 days is dry air. Upper air pattern generally has under 15kts shear through this period. However, there is quite a bit of dry air forecast to be around the system that may intrude from time to time. SSTs are  conducive, albeit not for a particularly intense storm, more than enough to survive off of.

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11 hours ago, Amped said:

ECMWF not turning Hector north or shearing it apart. 

New forecast contest:   What day does Hector dissipate? 

Typhoon/Hurricane John 31 days is the record.   Hector needs to make it to 8/31 to beat that.

The fact the GFS even has this in the west pac is amazing and its actually looking to head towards Japan as a threat. Of course its the 384 GFS but the potential is there for a very long tracking hurricane with this one.

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This is the best GOES-W IR satellite image of Hurricane Hector I can find on any NOAA web page. The NOAA tropical cyclone floaters web page has now become defunct for GOES-E and GOES-W as there are no floaters. I am wondering if maybe these floaters for GOES-W exist but it's just not obvious how to view them. Clearly, Hurricane Hector is best viewed from GOES-W.

here is web site I am complaining about:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

 

TAqPFK8.jpg

 

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6 hours ago, Chinook said:

This is the best GOES-W IR satellite image of Hurricane Hector I can find on any NOAA web page. The NOAA tropical cyclone floaters web page has now become defunct for GOES-E and GOES-W as there are no floaters. I am wondering if maybe these floaters for GOES-W exist but it's just not obvious how to view them. Clearly, Hurricane Hector is best viewed from GOES-W.

here is web site I am complaining about:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

I couldn't find much either. This site has some very nice imagery, but it doesn't update frequently 

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/fnmoc/tropical.html

kUpG78T.jpg

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters-old.html

Found the link on google.  

On 8/4/2018 at 2:37 PM, Chinook said:

This is the best GOES-W IR satellite image of Hurricane Hector I can find on any NOAA web page. The NOAA tropical cyclone floaters web page has now become defunct for GOES-E and GOES-W as there are no floaters. I am wondering if maybe these floaters for GOES-W exist but it's just not obvious how to view them. Clearly, Hurricane Hector is best viewed from GOES-W.

here is web site I am complaining about:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

 

 

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Thanks, I guess that floaters web site is hidden pretty well, but you found it.

Hector is up to 120 kt. It seems that the Atlantic is unlikely to produce a highly active season, but this Cat-4 storm might be scaring some Hawaiians, to some degree

sJRa0dT.jpg

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Central Pacific Hurricane Center:

Quote
Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 AM HST Mon Aug 06 2018
 
The satellite presentation of Hurricane Hector has improved
overnight, with a well defined 10 to 15 nautical mile wide eye
surrounded by a large ring of -70 to -80 Celsius cloud tops. The
latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from SAB and
JTWC came in at 6.5 (127 knots), while PHFO came in at 6.0 (115
knots). The latest estimate using the Advanced Dvorak technique from
UW-CIMSS yielded 6.8 (135 knots). Given that Hector's satellite
presentation has improved since the previous advisory, we have
elected to raise the initial intensity to 125 knots which correlates
well with a blend of the available intensity estimates.

 

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Hector is attaining some characteristics of an annular hurricane. Though it still has a relatively small or modest clear eye, it has lost most of its banding features outside its main ring of convection. Annular TCs can be fairly resilient and long-lasting major hurricanes, even thriving in 26-27°C SSTs and surrounding dry/stable airmasses, as long as the system remains in light/negligible windshear and a region of cooler than average upper tropospheric conditions. Will be interesting to see how long Hector can maintain major hurricane status as it passes by just south of The Big Island of Hawaii.
ab48f2315614e49f7461e87621095c1c.gif

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Not sure the last time I have seen TS Watches for Johnston Island and maybe soon to be Midway... from  the 5am HST disco on Hector:

Since Hector has strengthened slightly overnight, we see no obvious
impediments to it maintaining about the same intensity during the
next 36 hours. The ICON, SHIPS, and HWRF seem to agree with this
scenario. After that, some gradual weakening is possible from days 2
through 5 as it starts to encounter cooler water temperatures
and increasing southwesterly shear. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for Johnston Island. If the expected turn toward the
west-northwest does not occur, tropical storm conditions are
possible there starting late Friday. Elsewhere, interests in the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway and Kure Atolls and
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of Pearl/Hermes,
should monitor the progress of Hector. Note, this does not include
the main Hawaiian Islands.
 

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Kinda cool re Hector since it has crossed the International Date Line

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the final advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system. The next bulletin will be issued by RSMC
Tokyo Japan. For U.S. interests, see Department of Defense warnings
issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...TROPICAL STORM LANE FORMS, FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 123.6W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 123.6 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion over the open Pacific Ocean is expected to continue for the
next couple of days.  A turn to the west-northwest is forecast to
occur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Lane is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday and
could become a major hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

The latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone continues to
become better organized with a growing central dense overcast along
with ample banding features.  Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 40
kt, and with the increased organization since the last advisory,
the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.

Further intensification is likely over the next few days as Lane
encounters a conducive large-scale environment consisting of low
shear and fairly warm waters.  Rapid strengthening is a distinct
possibility after the cyclone forms an inner core, which could take
a day or so given that there is still some drier air in the eastern
semicircle.  The DTOPS rapid intensification index indicates a high
probability of significant strengthening over the next 3 days, with
over a 70 percent chance of a 65-kt increase during that time.
Given that some of the guidance (FSSE and HMON) are even higher than
that, this seems like a reasonable forecast and is indicated below.
The new NHC forecast is raised from the last advisory, and is close
to a blend of the previous forecast and the corrected-consensus
guidance.  Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems
destined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector.

The storm continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt.
The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane is forecast to weaken
slightly over the next few days, which will likely steer the cyclone
to the west or west-northwest throughout the period.  There is very
little spread in the guidance, with the most notable change since
the last advisory being a small shift to the southwest.  The
latest official track forecast is adjusted in that direction, and is
not too far from the latest model consensus.  Given the tightly
packed guidance, this appears to be a high-confidence forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 10.7N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 10.6N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 10.7N 127.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 11.0N 130.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 11.5N 132.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 12.6N 137.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 13.9N 142.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Lane has strengthened considerably since becoming a tropical storm recently. Here is the satellite image at 0000z (Aug 18). This shows a pretty strong storm on the IR image. This is another situation when the GOES-E view of this storm is becoming useless (soon) due to its far-west longitude. 200PM Pacific time, 95 kt. This became a tropical storm at 800AM Pacific time, Aug 15th, so not too long ago.

RgXZ6b1.jpg

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From what I saw yesterday Hurricane Hector is supposed to strengthen to a category 4 by Tuesday and then quickly weaken. I'm all for that happening. I also have question. I know that in Hawaii they have a different name for hurricanes but I don't remember what it is. Can anyone help me?

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1 hour ago, Charming_Chad said:

From what I saw yesterday Hurricane Hector is supposed to strengthen to a category 4 by Tuesday and then quickly weaken. I'm all for that happening. I also have question. I know that in Hawaii they have a different name for hurricanes but I don't remember what it is. Can anyone help me?

you mean hurricane lane...

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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Surprised this isn't being talked about more. The odds are still against it, but Lane looks like a threat to Hawaii. 

Agreed, roughly half the spaghetti plot and GFS ensembles show it hitting the western islands. If this was an Atlantic storm we'd be up to 50 pages by now.

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From a few hours ago. 

WTPA42 PHFO 202115
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 20 2018
 
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found a maximum flight level
wind of 121 kt, and the NOAA Hurricane Hunters found maximum SFMR
wind of 113 kt earlier on the northwest quadrant. The 15 to 20 nm
diameter eye had also temporarily become more distinct over the past
6 to 8 hours, and this was the justifiation for raising the current
intensity slightly to 115 kt. This is somewhat higher than the 18z
satellite based estimates were showing. The eye has since started
to become less distinct once again in satellite imagery.

The initial motion is 280/10, slightly slower than the previous
advisory. Lane is marching toward the west on the southern flank
of a large subtropical ridge. In the near term, the track guidance
is in excellent agreement. This motion is expected to gradually turn
more toward the west-northwest, and then finally northwest over the
next few days as the ridge weakens and erodes. Beyond 48 hours, the
forecast becomes quite challenging. The guidance shows increasing
spread due to noteworthy differences in the handling of the strength
of the ridge to the east and southeast of the cyclone. The GFS
remains on the far right side of the guidance with a harder right
turn starting around 72 hours, and the ECMWF shows a more gentle
curve. The consensus guidance remains split down the middle of these
two camps and did not change much from the previous advisory. The
forecast track at 96 hours was nudged slightly eastward to better
agree with the consensus guidance, but it should be noted that in
this situation, forecast confidence is lower than normal. A turn
back toward the west-northwest is expected toward the end of the
forecast period as strong wind shear begins to impact Lane, but this
is also a rather low confidence scenario. 
 
Lane is expected to remain over 28C sea surface temperatures in the
short term in a weak to moderate shear environment that should allow
the hurricane to maintain intensity. After a day or two, the models
show increasing shear beginning to work on the circulation and
weaken the system. However, there are some differences as to when
that will begin. The intensity forecast shows a slow weakening
trend beginning in the 24 to 36 hour time frame in good agreement
with the intensity consensus guidance. Once shear increases in the
48 to 72 hour time frame, a somewhat faster weakening trend is
anticipated which should continue through the rest of the forecast
period.

Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands, as well as the northwestern
Hawaiian Islands, should continue to monitor the progress of Lane
this week. With such a complex forecast scenario, it is especially
important not to focus on the exact forecast track and intensity
and be ready for changes to both.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 13.6N 149.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 13.7N 150.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 13.9N 152.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 14.3N 153.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 14.9N 155.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 16.9N 157.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 19.4N 158.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 20.6N 160.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
 

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