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CT Rain

May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE

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This is a pretty telling picture. Strong agreement among the CAMs like you said. Widespread severe event looks likely.


uh25_004hmax_pb075_ne.f02200.thumb.png.27ff425b12e5ba6c1d88f54f098c394e.png

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34 minutes ago, Hoth said:

So, will Ryan post pics of the ever-telling castellanus this morning? Murky/fog in my hood atm. Let's get these clouds out of here and fully destabilize!

Already sunny here 

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41 minutes ago, Hoth said:

So, will Ryan post pics of the ever-telling castellanus this morning? Murky/fog in my hood atm. Let's get these clouds out of here and fully destabilize!

Telling, gravity wave mornings in SNE followed by clearing. Heads up

GOES112720181358lWMXu.jpg

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big day ahead folks for NE PA and SE NY as clusters of supercells take advantage of instability/mechanics early ... and fan their exhaust and light rain and gentle thunder over areas of CT/MA/RI..    

 

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If there are any discrete cells today we can't totally rule out a strong tornado somewhere. LCL's are on the high side, however, which could limit that a bit but some of the forecast hodographs are quite impressive. 

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6 hours ago, OKpowdah said:

This is a pretty telling picture. Strong agreement among the CAMs like you said. Widespread severe event looks likely.


uh25_004hmax_pb075_ne.f02200.thumb.png.27ff425b12e5ba6c1d88f54f098c394e.png

Curious what the interpretation of this product is ...I have no familiarization with it.  

It appears to be outlining probability (contouring) with embedded modeled supercell production?  

If so ... that HRW NSSL long tracked SC right down the Mass Turnpike is a hoot riot! :)   I mean, Great Barrington over Springfield to over Worcester to over downtown Boston ...that's like the Monson event on steroids.. 

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A little late to the party, but today does look legit. Thinking about shelf-cloud hunting in Mass when I get out of work.

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think that was August 2015

Cool, thanks. Anyway, fog has lifted here and sun is starting to peek through the thin cloud deck. Let the games begin.

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cluster of activity racing through NYS will probably clip NW zones of SNE and impact S VT ...western NH toward noon (or even prior). 

These elements are really hauling arse!  An early ominous indicator for mid level tropospheric momentum and organizing winds in down-bursts aggregation - I could almost see that overwhelming the discrete cellular in lieu of macro-bursting... 

Otherwise... watch for a S propagating outflow from this early transgressor because that might move out some 20 or 30 miles from the transit axis and serve as a trigger perhaps ? 

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Enjoy it W of here.  Threat looks minimal here now with flow more out of the SW which won't cut it.  Also, its only 61F with DP of 57F and overcast skies.  Would need some solid clearing and daytime heating to kick things into gear.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

PIT sounding from 12z launch. My mom always said never to look at porn this early but...

 

PIT.gif

Wow. GOES16 shows unbroken sun all the way back through PA. EML is moving in, sun is coming out. The lid is on the pot, the pot is in the fire, only a matter of time until we boil.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Derecho!

 

Sick!!! Didn't even see that tweet. Just got in from cutting grass. I want me a derecho

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