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2018 Mountains and Foothills Spring/Summer thread


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20 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Met! Good to see you. You heading this way anytime soon?

Yeah I am finalizing my plans to head back home now. As it goes with HR things are never done quickly enough. My moms cancer came back and I need to be back home. I hate I'm going to miss this event. There are a lot of changes that can continue down the road. Nothing is set in stone currently but if it moves south and keeps that moisture fetch off the Atlantic and the mountains are in the Northeast side of this thing then we could be seeing flooding like we did in 2004. Especially since the mountains have seen so much rain already this year. Isn't Asheville in second with precipitation totals so far for the year? 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I am finalizing my plans to head back home now. As it goes with HR things are never done quickly enough. My moms cancer came back and I need to be back home. I hate I'm going to miss this event. There are a lot of changes that can continue down the road. Nothing is set in stone currently but if it moves south and keeps that moisture fetch off the Atlantic and the mountains are in the Northeast side of this thing then we could be seeing flooding like we did in 2004. Especially since the mountains have seen so much rain already this year. Isn't Asheville in second with precipitation totals so far for the year? 

Best wishes for your mom, my friend. 

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35 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Holy crap at the 18z gfs. Would be absolutely catastrophic for most of NC especially the mountains. Widespread foot of rain looks like from the tt maps. Maybe more.

 

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Yep! Not to mention that while it has the storm moving slow, it doesn’t stall it. Continues trucking west and most of the foothills, central mountains, and northern mountains get in on gusts ranging from 40-55mph (I’d assume a bit higher on mountain tops). Normally, we wouldn’t sweat it, but after getting completely washed for the 12-24 hrs before, we’d be absolutely screwed with trees, outages etc. 

Something that I haven’t mentioned in the other thread out of fear of getting roasted: the track suggesting a dramatic drift SW...just doesn’t make sense. I mean yes I understand the mechanics behind it with the ridge to the north, but idk. It’s so illogical. Seems more logical to assume the ridge isn’t quite that strong, the storm slows and rides the state line westward. It’s a very large storm, and I find it hard to believe it’s just halted and shoved so easily to the south. I really think the euro was on to something 36 hrs ago when it spelled out this solution (state line, west into wnc and tenn). 

Anyways, I guess we will see and hope for the best. I’m not letting my guard down. The storm has already reached a latitude higher than the nhc cone. She might be coming north fellas. Don’t let your guard down. 

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4 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

Holy crap at the 18z gfs. Would be absolutely catastrophic for most of NC especially the mountains. Widespread foot of rain looks like from the tt maps. Maybe more.

 

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Probably more.  60kt barrier jet into the mountains from the east/southeast with high precipitable waters.  Can't do that meteorologically without having a really strong response.  Of course, this assumes the track stays the same, which it won't.  Expect more changes as the days evolve.

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47 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Probably more.  60kt barrier jet into the mountains from the east/southeast with high precipitable waters.  Can't do that meteorologically without having a really strong response.  Of course, this assumes the track stays the same, which it won't.  Expect more changes as the days evolve.

Good to hear you chiming in. What’s your take on the track for our area?

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Holy crap at the 18z gfs. Would be absolutely catastrophic for most of NC especially the mountains. Widespread foot of rain looks like from the tt maps. Maybe more.
 
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Getting worried about Hwy 176 Saluda to Tryon.. friends have told me that after the May flooding and slides it really will not take much to start the mountain moving again


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11 hours ago, Rainforrest said:

Good to hear you chiming in. What’s your take on the track for our area?

Models seem to have finally settled down with a track SSW through South Carolina, ending up between Greenville and Columbia.  This puts the mountains in very favorable upslope flow.  Then the low should move nearly due north across the western tip of NC and into the Ohio Valley.  Going to be a rainy 2-3 days around WNC, starting Saturday.  Still trying to figure out how much will fall.  That's a complicated forecast.

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6 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Flash flood watch just posted for the mountains. 

Yeah I noticed that. The thing with this is that subtle changes in the track will cause big changes on precipitation amounts. Also the models usually always underestimate the amount of precipitation coming in on the leeward side of the mountains. 

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...Flash Flooding Threat From Florence This Weekend Into Monday...
.Hurricane Florence Will Slowly Track Inland Later Today Into Saturday Across South Carolina, Then Turn Northwest Across The Southern Appalachians Sunday, And Head Into The Central Appalachians Monday. With Soils Saturated Or Becoming Saturated,
The Threat Of Flash Flooding Is Likely To Develop This Weekend Into Monday.
...Flash Flood Watch In Effect From Saturday Morning Through Monday Evening...
The National Weather Service In Blacksburg Has Issued A
* Flash Flood Watch For Portions Of North Carolina And Southwest Virginia, Including The Following Areas, In North Carolina,
Alleghany Nc, Ashe, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry,
Watauga, Wilkes, And Yadkin. In Southwest Virginia, Carroll,
Floyd, Grayson, And Patrick.
* From Saturday Morning Through Monday Evening
* Heavy Rain From Florence Will Lead To Flash Flooding Across The Area, Especially By Saturday Afternoon And Evening Into Monday.
5 To 10 Inches Of Rain Are Expected, With Locally Higher Amounts Of A Foot Or More Possible Along The Blue Ridge.
* Life-Threatening Flash Flooding May Develop As Heavy Rain Bands Occur This Weekend Into Monday. Streams And Creeks May Rise Quickly During Heavy Rain And Flood. Larger Rivers Eventually May Rise To Flood Stage As Well.
* Rainfall Of More Than Five Inches In Similar Storms Has Been Associated With An Increased Risk Of Landslides And Rock Slides.
If You Live On A Mountainside Or In A Cove At The Base Of A Mountain...Especially Near A Stream...Be Ready To Leave In Advance Of The Storm Or As Quickly As Possible Should Rising Water...Moving Earth...Or Rocks Threaten. Consider Postponing Travel Along Mountain Roads During The Period Of Heavy Rainfall.

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Tropical systems that effect us here in the mountains remind me a lot of the snow producing storms we get in that there is going to be great variation in precipitation accumulation in very short distances, with so much of it being slope dependent. Unfortunately, some us are going to see major flooding and/or land slide issues. I work in Canton right on the Pigeon River. We took in 4 feet of water with the 2004 Hurricanes, I hope we don't see anything like that with this.

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https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201809141517-KGSP-NOUS42-PNSGSP

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF EIGHT TO TWELVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT FROM
HENDERSON AND POLK COUNTIES NORTHWARD INTO AVERY AND CALDWELL
COUNTIES, NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED LANDSLIDES ARE LIKELY WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF SIX TO TEN INCHES, WITH GREATER COVERAGE IF 
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED THAT LEVEL. AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED 
RECENT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL 
LANDSLIDES.

Honestly, at this point, expecting anywhere from 1-15 inches of rain. We shall see. 

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Based on available guidance, including 00Z NAM, 18Z GFS, and 12Z Euro....the dividing line between some rain and a lot of rain will be I-26 or so.

3-6” for McDowell up to Avery. 

Buncombe and Madison county storm total rain will be 1.0 to 1.5” and anything west of Asheville will be an inch or less. Henderson county will be 1-2”. 

Models have not only sped up the departure of the remnants of Florence, but also trended north and east so the storm doesn’t go too far south into South Carolina.  This pushes the best moisture and forcing well away from the southern Apps. So generally good news for WNC!  In fact, I would cancel the Flood Watch for Buncombe, Madison, Haywood and points west.

Though my backyard is hard and dry as all get out, this will event will not help too much, especially for dry areas west of I-26.

others?  Thoughts?

 

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31 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Based on available guidance, including 00Z NAM, 18Z GFS, and 12Z Euro....the dividing line between some rain and a lot of rain will be I-26 or so.

3-6” for McDowell up to Avery. 

Buncombe and Madison county storm total rain will be 1.0 to 1.5” and anything west of Asheville will be an inch or less. Henderson county will be 1-2”. 

Models have not only sped up the departure of the remnants of Florence, but also trended north and east so the storm doesn’t go too far south into South Carolina.  This pushes the best moisture and forcing well away from the southern Apps. So generally good news for WNC!  In fact, I would cancel the Flood Watch for Buncombe, Madison, Haywood and points west.

Though my backyard is hard and dry as all get out, this will event will not help too much, especially for dry areas west of I-26.

others?  Thoughts?

 

I did notice that although marginal, the NHC on their 11p update adjusted their cone slightly further west for WNC, than it was at 5p.

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9 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Based on available guidance, including 00Z NAM, 18Z GFS, and 12Z Euro....the dividing line between some rain and a lot of rain will be I-26 or so.

3-6” for McDowell up to Avery. 

Buncombe and Madison county storm total rain will be 1.0 to 1.5” and anything west of Asheville will be an inch or less. Henderson county will be 1-2”. 

Models have not only sped up the departure of the remnants of Florence, but also trended north and east so the storm doesn’t go too far south into South Carolina.  This pushes the best moisture and forcing well away from the southern Apps. So generally good news for WNC!  In fact, I would cancel the Flood Watch for Buncombe, Madison, Haywood and points west.

Though my backyard is hard and dry as all get out, this will event will not help too much, especially for dry areas west of I-26.

others?  Thoughts?

 

Going to be a tight gradient for sure. 0Z Euro has Henderson and adjacent foothill counties of Polk, McDowell, NW Burke and Avery county getting 7-10 inches with Asheville proper getting 3 inches. 

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1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Going to be a tight gradient for sure. 0Z Euro has Henderson and adjacent foothill counties of Polk, McDowell, NW Burke and Avery county getting 7-10 inches with Asheville proper getting 3 inches. 

Euro ensembles have a mean in AVL of 5.1", with as much as 9". GFS up to 6.1" mean. NAM....well.......it’s the NAM with a hurricane  

CLT mean is 7.8" on Euro.  Hickory is 6.0".  We will see. Euro and GFS trended a tad southwest, thus the increase in QPF.  NAM still north and east and the driest of all models.

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