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weatherwiz

General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

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11 hours ago, radarman said:

Maybe some elevated convection for Long Island/ part of the south coast late Tuesday night/ early Weds morning as MLCAPE ramps up.  Too bad we couldn't muster any instability tomorrow during the day.

Time to ride the MCS train if the GFS is right?

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On 5/21/2018 at 9:47 AM, radarman said:

Maybe some elevated convection for Long Island/ part of the south coast late Tuesday night/ early Weds morning as MLCAPE ramps up.  Too bad we couldn't muster any instability tomorrow during the day.

This worked out nicely! The storms woke me up this morning.

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5 hours ago, StormSurge said:

This worked out nicely! The storms woke me up this morning.

Absolutely!

Quite the show in Newtown overnight 

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I was thinking Thursday, with some height falls and wind max approaching from PA .. but, it may be a bit of a timing issue with the S/W out pacing day-time heating.  At least...going with the Euro mass-fields.  Or ... perhaps it will accelerate and become a Wed evening deal too ... nice

edit: yeah I guess some of the other models do bring it in later Wed...

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16 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was thinking Thursday, with some height falls and wind max approaching from PA .. but, it may be a bit of a timing issue with the S/W out pacing day-time heating.  At least...going with the Euro mass-fields.  Or ... perhaps it will accelerate and become a Wed evening deal too ... nice

edit: yeah I guess some of the other models do bring it in later Wed...

yeah the timing certainly has not trended in our favor. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah the timing certainly has not trended in our favor. 

just going by the Euro mass fields (00z) operational run ... looks like we are in the right exit region of nosing into western zones very late Wednesday afternoon/early evening, then evac increasing through the early night.  Meanwhile, the surface to 3 and perhaps 6 km look modest for directional shear but pretty actively tilted (velocity shearing). 

I'd say it's not impossible we spill a couple of broken line segments over eastern NY/W CT/MA toward 00z.  

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

just going by the Euro mass fields (00z) operational run ... looks like we are in the right exit region of nosing into western zones very late Wednesday afternoon/early evening, then evac increasing through the early night.  Meanwhile, the surface to 3 and perhaps 6 km look modest for directional shear but pretty actively tilted (velocity shearing). 

I'd say it's not impossible we spill a couple of broken line segments over eastern NY/W CT/MA toward 00z.  

I can see that happening. Could even see a bit of an instability spike around 0z across far western areas too with some decent theta-e advection modeled. 

Looking ahead though what a horrific pattern. Although, I guess there is some hope for maybe some cold pool aloft setups but just yuck. 

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37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I can see that happening. Could even see a bit of an instability spike around 0z across far western areas too with some decent theta-e advection modeled. 

Looking ahead though what a horrific pattern. Although, I guess there is some hope for maybe some cold pool aloft setups but just yuck. 

wondering when/if NE Canada finally collapses and the other shoe falls on the delusions of cool climate grandeur people are being enabled with - ha.  Seriously ...we could see a hemispheric slosh event and pig STR genesis over eastern N/A ...  

The models are hinting at it...   But yeah, should that evolve, that would tend to shut down synoptic -scale instability scenarios in lieu of mid level capping.

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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wondering when/if NE Canada finally collapses and the other shoe falls on the delusions of cool climate grandeur people are being enabled with - ha.  Seriously ...we could see a hemispheric slosh event and pig STR genesis over eastern N/A ...  

The models are hinting at it...   But yeah, should that evolve, that would tend to shut down synoptic -scale instability scenarios in lieu of mid level capping.

Starting to wonder if the configuration will ever break down :lol:  

I have not really looked at long-range in quite sometime (as in influences of the global pattern and such) but this seems rather odd to me to see such an extensive feature become established at the high liatitudes this time of year. 

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything is early now. Wed morning fropa. Congrats to Everyone on sprinkles thru a mid level deck 

Debating on maybe going to NY Wednesday 

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Actually a shame that 1) We probably have showers moving through during the day and 2) That s/w isn't timed quicker...not a terrible looking environment across western sections. Actually some nice looking hodos on some of the soundings. 

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6 hours ago, yoda said:

SPC Day 2 OTLK mentions potential for a few tornadoes due to backing of surface winds in E NY

Not to mock or be condescending but ... valley backed winds is both problematic for advance severe assessment, as well .. probably favored in warm sectors with strengthening warm conveyor belt just ahead of a S/W such as this situation. 

Whatever develops out west of here is probably going to have very fast cell/organized line segment motion and I bet wind bursting/organization into bowing is likely in that - ..

Also, I'm not so sure we need to drop the interest/threat just because of nocturnal in this scenario. The NAM in particular is showing a pretty robust theta-e anomaly along with llv warm intrusion collocated with a diffused warm boundary in the area back east as the evening wears on.. In fact, it even raises the 980 mb temperature at Logan around 10 pm ... may just offer some modest sustained CAPE.  Given to height falls and forced ascent with the right entrance jet nosing in,  ...I'm wondering if way end up seeing more activity holding together farther east than is typical -

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Wagons north. Ontario FTW today.

I may be off here but ... it seems to me the modeled cloud contamination was particularly egregious for this day/afternoon... it's destroyed SB CAPE genesis - 

edit, modeling may have actually been reasonable - " I " certainly thought less on SW wind.  Climo suggests we do better in that but oy

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I may be off here but ... it seems to me the modeled cloud contamination was particularly egregious for this day/afternoon... it's destroyed SB CAPE genesis - 

edit, modeling may have actually been reasonable - " I " certainly thought less on SW wind.  Climo suggests we do better in that but oy

I wouldn't say I've been super plugged into the forecast, but SPC did mention a few MCVs leftover from last night in the OH Valley. That could certainly prolong cloud cover on what would normally be a drier SW flow.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I wouldn't say I've been super plugged into the forecast, but SPC did mention a few MCVs leftover from last night in the OH Valley. That could certainly prolong cloud cover on what would normally be a drier SW flow.

Why does that always seem to happen? We always seem to get stuck in leftover MCS mank on any days it's possible to have big SVR. 

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58 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Why does that always seem to happen? We always seem to get stuck in leftover MCS mank on any days it's possible to have big SVR. 

A bison fart on the theta-e grad spawns an MCS out there. We get gifted with the decaying mid/upper level exhaust garbage out here

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Why does that always seem to happen? We always seem to get stuck in leftover MCS mank on any days it's possible to have big SVR. 

The most basic explanation is because for strong convection you need strong mid level lapse rates (think remnant EML). In order to get those into the Northeast you need to advect those from the High Plains. That's at least 2 days across country that you are hoping those steep mid level lapse rates don't generate other strong convection.

And when you generate those large MCSs that turn over huge areas of steep lapse rates, you tend to get those MCVs that can linger and leave behind significant convective debris.

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Not sure about here but Tuesday could be quite interesting just off to our southwest. Obviously lapse rates are meh but could be some enhanced low-level shear to work with 

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41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not sure about here but Tuesday could be quite interesting just off to our southwest. Obviously lapse rates are meh but could be some enhanced low-level shear to work with 

12z NAM blasts interior SNE like a p-wave off a h-bomb with some sort of what looks like derecho activity late Monday afternoon... 

But, like I was ruminating in the other thread, this situation (and unsure if the NAM is handling appropriately) may be too capped.  Big heat domes tend to come with a CIN layer below the EML ... I am noticing that NAM is subtly lower with heights in the transient eastern ridge than prior runs, and that may just erode enough of that to unlid what proooobably would amount to some pretty high SB CAPE.   If that happened, it would be explosive as an understatement - 

it's prolly just the NAM being the NAM... It's actually using rain-cooled air from over night warm frontal activity late Sunday night to ultimately prevent the same 'hot day' look ..pretty much holds things pedestrian for heat actually but with cruel DPs (so perhaps a trade off).  But the whole evolution there doesn't seem right -

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