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Tim from Springfield (IL)

May 2018 General Discussion

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

RAP all-in with highs approaching 90 in parts of IL

Will have to see how much clearing occurs

RAPMW_sfc_temp_017.png.16c1cd009757a1156c06e227ed2e141d.png

Under :lmao:

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Under :lmao:

HRRR not far behind.  Those models did better than others on some of the warm days so far, but we do have the added complication of how much cloud debris there will be.

HRRRMW_sfc_temp_016.png.abce175b81113347ad701cec4ce5f71a.png

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Just now, Hoosier said:

HRRR not far behind.  Those models did better than others on some of the warm days so far, but we do have the added complication of how much cloud debris there will be.

I think HRRR is overmixing things a bit. We shall see though.

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On 5/7/2018 at 12:24 PM, Harry Perry said:

Nearing full-leafout in several spots in my area. I’d be willing to bet we’re at full bloom by the end of the week here. 

 

Forecast models have been playing catch-up in the last week. GFS, NAM, Euro and CFS all have tried holding the cold air over the Great Lakes through the long range, but every day is suppressing it further N/NE and as expected, latest runs keep increasing H8 and surface temps by a few degrees daily. Now, the cold air that was once progged to be over the Great Lake/NE is well into Canada and a much more late spring-early summer like pattern has filled its place. I’d expect our highs to be a little warmer than forecast each day (seems to be the case as of the late) - other than Thursday and Friday with the system/quasi stationary system moving in/taking shape.

 

 Will be interesting to see what happens in the coming days for later this week into the weekend with the southern stream inching northward. That’s a lot of heat and moisture inching into cooler and drier air. 

Now the models are showing miserable cold this weekend for the Great Lakes, while just barely south temps will be into the 90s. WTF is going on with this ****ed up pattern? It seems absolutely bizarre for there to be that much cold air still present this late in the season, and it also doesn't make sense that the cold pushes so far south.

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7 hours ago, Spring 2018 Is The Worst said:

Now the models are showing miserable cold this weekend for the Great Lakes, while just barely south temps will be into the 90s. WTF is going on with this ****ed up pattern? It seems absolutely bizarre for there to be that much cold air still present this late in the season, and it also doesn't make sense that the cold pushes so far south.

:arrowhead:

Where do you live?

At ORD, the normal high is still only around 68...so each day with a high temp near 80 (which we’ve seen a few of recently) is balanced out with a day that has a high temp in the mid 50s. 

If you’re near Lake Michigan, the normal highs are even lower. 

In the Upper Midwest, normal lows are still in the 30s.

It isn’t summer yet. 

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5 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

:arrowhead:

Where do you live?

At ORD, the normal high is still only around 68...so each day with a high temp near 80 (which we’ve seen a few of recently) is balanced out with a day that has a high temp in the mid 50s. 

If you’re near Lake Michigan, the normal highs are even lower. 

In the Upper Midwest, normal lows are still in the 30s.

It isn’t summer yet. 

We had February weather in April. I think we all deserve a long period of summer warmth from May till October.

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17 hours ago, tmagan said:

Impressive mid-level swirl with the complex over SE IA.

That was a nice MCV for sure.

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2 hours ago, Spring 2018 Is The Worst said:

We had February weather in April. I think we all deserve a long period of summer warmth from May till October.

What you want compared to what is expected are two totally different things, and obviously unrealistic.

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15 hours ago, Spring 2018 Is The Worst said:

Why is the warm front progged to stall so far south this weekend? Seems kind of strange for that to be happening in Mid May. I don't understand why it can't lift farther north.

 

garbage spring.

I think you fail to realize May always features at least several "cold" days around here.

May days with high temps <60F at ORD the past several years...

2018: 0 Days

2017: 8 Days

2016: 7 Days

2015: 7 Days

2014: 7 Days

So we're due...

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21 hours ago, Hoosier said:

HRRR not far behind.  Those models did better than others on some of the warm days so far, but we do have the added complication of how much cloud debris there will be.

The HRRR/RAP have been pretty much aces on limited cloud cover/non-precip days, far outperforming other guidance.

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Wow this place is dead. 

Finally had a little bit of rain this week with just over a half inch.  Hopefully it will spur then green up!  Very chilly tonight... have the wood stove going and the pellet stove down in the breezeway too.  Temp is already down to 32... still rogue patches of snow here and there.  I even made a snowball yesterday, but a far different story 28 years ago. I'd be down.

MQT:

On this day in weather history, a major late season snowstorm ends, leaving behind nearly 2 feet of snow in the high terrain of north central Upper Michigan.

32191234_2088869084476305_5276135858758483968_n.png.a9ff1135c93229fb8ba89cb7e7209057.png

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Yeah it is dead around here, no excitable weather coming around. No major severe outbreaks or flooding.

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11 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah it is dead around here, no excitable weather coming around. No major severe outbreaks or flooding.

Aren't you excited to be in the 40s on a mid May afternoon?

mi_sfc.gif.2167b256dd2bb46027c64ee06e9aa27c.gif

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Aren't you excited to be in the 40s on a mid May afternoon?

mi_sfc.gif.2167b256dd2bb46027c64ee06e9aa27c.gif

About as excited as I will be tomorrow at the Tigers game freezing to death.

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A cutoff is now developing on the west coast that will last probably 10 or so days. Lucky us that didn't happen over the midwest or the whining would have activated this thread. Instead, another nice period of weather is approaching by Monday leaving it dead.

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There's almost a 45 degree spread between Peoria and Waukegan.

I haven't checked but I would imagine that some of these temps deeper into the cold air are running near record low max values.

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Weather next week looks nice with upper 70s/low 80s every day. Severe wx pattern thru early June leaves me slightly optimistic. Looks like we should have several waves move into the west at the least. Pattern early on could be hindered by ULL pestering over the gulf, but good luck getting any decent predictability on that feature this far out. 

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